His stock certainly took a hit prior to the trade... in many of the prospectus' eyes, he's going to have to play his way back to being a high-level prospect. I don't think Ruiz would necessarily be higher... he's coming off his first plus season at A ball, in a hitting-friendly league.
For a guy that's viewed as a fairly safe prospect, opinion does seem to differ greatly with Moran. I think it all depends on how much value the scout places on upside. The almost universal consensus is that his upside is fairly low, but his likelihood of being a solid MLB 3rd baseman appears to be pretty high.
Ruiz would probably be higher. Baseball Prospectus is notorious among the big list makers for emphasizing tools over floor. They're way more apt to put a high ceiling/tools guy in low A on their list than the others are. They were much higher on Correa at the end of his draft year than everyone else. Jim Callis, one of the most highly respected baseball analysts, has a much more balanced list. Philips didn't even make his top 100; although he did make the just missed list. Top 5 grades for Philips and Fisher are aggressive and in most part due to their broad plus tool sets. Philips has five average to plus tools and Fisher has four. Fisher hasn't even played above short season, so that's an incredibly aggressive grade. 'Advanced' guys like Moran (low) and A.J Reed (omitted) don't typically rank well on the BP list. You just gotta take BP's list with a grain of salt.
in all fairness, you have to take any prospect list with a grain of salt. for all we know, 3 years from now moran could be the 2nd best player of the bunch.
I think it depends on your opinion of players like Lyle Overbay. Moran strikes me as an Overbay-type player. Should hit for average and a bunch of doubles. Could hit 15-25 hrs per year and drive in 80-90 while not striking out a ton and having a decent OBP (.350 ish)
TIL: Lyle Overbay is much better than I gave him credit. His high prospect status always made me think he underachieved, but in reality, he was good for about 2.2 WAR a year in his prime. Not too shabby.
Really wish we could have at least held onto Ruiz for one more year and see what he could do in AA. He took some really big steps last year, gonna follow him for sure with his new org.
A little disappointed with only 3, but I understand it. Moran as has been discussed has a fairly low upside, which some scouts seem to place a huge emphasis on. Feliz, McCullers, Santana and Phillips still have very reasonable question marks. It is good to see that Velasquez has basically been a top 80 prospect across the board. Hope he can finally put together a full year and move into that upper echelon.
On Moran's upside, scouts tend to value guys that get value in common ways. Moran is a 3B prospect that isn't likely to produce a ton of HRs (though he does have a chance here). Moran has upside as a high OBP 3B. High OBP 3B are not valued until they can prove it in the majors and even then they can be overlooked.
Just got the 2015 Baseball America Prospect Handbook. Here's what BA had to say about the Astros system... Astros named in each BA editor's personal top 50 Ben Badler: Carlos Correa #5 J.J. Cooper: Correa #3, Mark Appel #27 Matt Eddy: Correa #2, Appel #37 John Manuel: Correa #4 The Astros were rated as the #10 system in MLB. Top 2015 Rookie: Appel. Top 2015 Breakout Prospect: Joe Musgrove. Top 2015 Sleeper: Osvaldo Duarte. Best Tools Best Hitter for Average: Correa Best Power Hitter: Telvin Nash Best Strike-Zone Discipline: Rio Ruiz (keep in mind this was all done before the trade) Fastest Baserunner: Teoscar Hernandez Best Athlete: Brett Phillips Best Fastball: Mike Foltynewicz Best Curveball: Lance McCullers Best Silder: Appel Best Changeup: Vince Velasquez Best Command: Brady Rodgers Best Defensive Catcher: Roberto Peña Best Defensive Infielder: Correa Best Defensive Outfielder: Phillips Best Outfield Arm: Phillips 2014 Draft Analysis Best Pure Hitter: D.J. Fisher, A.J. Reed, J.D. Davis Best Power Hitter: Reed Fastest Runner: Bobby Boyd Best Defensive Player: Boyd Best Fastball: Derick Velazquez (6, "explosive fastball that sat 92-93 mph this summer, touching 96 with plus life to his arm side"), Dean Deetz ("was 92-94, touching 97") Best Secondary Pitch: Daniel Mengden's changeup ("shows the making of a plus changeup"), Velazquez's changeup ("plus potential") and slider ("flashes plus"), Deetz's curveball ("shows at least above-average potential") Best Pro Debut: Davis and Fisher Best Athlete: Fisher Most Intriguing Background: Josh James (34) grew up in the Virgin Islands and didn't start playing baseball until he was 17. Closest to the Majors: Reed Best Late-Round Pick: Ben Smith (17), Nick Tanielu (14; "natural, fluid, and instinctual hitter with some pop from the right side") The One Who Got Away: Sigh. Assessment: And now.... the moment you've all been waiting for. The Houston Astros' top 30 prospects, as ranked by Baseball America. Their grade and risk factors follow. BA also has a revised top 10 up as well. McCullers and Santana enter the top 10. 1. Carlos Correa, SS, 70/Medium 2. Mark Appel, RHP, 60/Medium 3. Mike Foltynewicz, RHP, 55/High 4. Vince Velasquez, RHP, 55/High 5. Michael Feliz, RHP, 55/High 6. Brett Phillips, OF, 55/High 7. Colin Moran, 3B, 50/Medium 8. Rio Ruiz, 3B, 50/High 9. Teoscar Hernandez, OF, 50/High 10. Josh Hader, LHP, 50/High 11. Lance McCullers, RHP, 50/High 12. Domingo Santana, OF, 50/High 13. Derek Fisher, OF, 50/High 14. Preston Tucker, OF, 45/Medium 15. J.D. Davis, 3B, 50/High 16. A.J. Reed, 1B, 50/High 17. Francis Martes, RHP, 55/Extreme (the 3rd player acquired from the Marlins in the Jarred Cosart deal) 18. Tony Kemp, 2B/OF, 45/Medium 19. Joe Musgrove, RHP, 50/High 20. Max Stassi, C, 40/Low 21. Adrian Houser, RHP, 50/High 22. Brady Rodgers, RHP, 45/Medium 23. Roberto Peña, C, 45/High 24. Ronald Torreyes, 2B/UTIL, 40/Low 25. Andrew Aplin, OF, 40/Low 26. Kent Emanuel, LHP, 45/Medium 27. Jake Buchanan, RHP, 40/Low 28. Asher Wojciechowski, RHP, 45/High 29. Andrew Thurman, RHP, 45/High 30. Danry Vásquez, OF, 45/High If you ordered the Handbook through BA, you got a supplement featuring an extra scouting report; the bonus Astros prospect was Conrad Gregor. He received a grade of 40 with medium risk. Also, Akeem Bostick was the bonus Rangers prospect. He was a 45/High. Top 30 at-a-glance 12 right-handed pitchers (10 now) 7 outfielders (8 if you're counting Tony Kemp) 3 third basemen (well, 2 now) 2 catchers 2 left-handed pitchers 2 second basemen 1 first baseman By Grade Rio, Folty, and Andrew Thurman are excluded. 1 70 (Correa) 1 60 (Appel) 4 55s (Velasquez, Feliz, Phillips, and Martes) 10 50s 8 45s 4 40s (5, if Gregor is included) By Risk 4 low 7 medium 15 high 1 extreme (Francis Martes) Jake Buchanan, Brady Rodgers, and Joe Musgrove are making their returns to the Handbook. Buchanan's last appearance was in 2012, when he was rated #13. Rodgers appeared in 2013 at #23, and I forgot where Musgrove was in the Blue Jays' system in 2012. 9 players (Delino DeShields, Nick Tropeano, Nolan Fontana, Kyle Smith, Chris Lee, Leo Heras, Gonzalo Sanudo, Jandel Gustave, and Reymin Guduan) that were ranked in 2014 do not appear. DeShields, Tropeano, and Gustave are with new organizations, while the other 6 dropped out of the rankings. New faces in (players that had not appeared in a previous version of the Handbook): Derek Fisher, J.D. Davis, A.J. Reed, Francis Martes, Tony Kemp, Roberto Peña Biggest jump: Brett Phillips, #30 in 2014, jumped to #6 (#5 in the revised top 10). Biggest drop without dropping out: Asher Wojciechowski, #10 in 2014, #28 in 2015
These rankings are usually all about players with perceived high ceilings, and as was mentioned above, the Astros don't currently have many of those guys (and last year's draft debacle also contributes to the decreased ranking... and as said in the article, this year's draft... presuming they sign the picks... will vault them up close to the top again). The Cardinals never had a super-highly ranked system, yet still churned out quality MLB player after quality MLB player...or they were able to trade minor league depth guys for established MLB players when they had specific needs. That is what this system aims to become.... and honestly should be what any highly ranked system is utilized for... to supplement the MLB team year after year, whether directly or indirectly via trade.
It comes and goes. Astros "lost" Springer and Singleton to MLB last year. Correa, Appel, and Velasquez have had little or no experience in AA or higher. Some prospects will fail. Some will exceed. Based on sheer number of guys heading towards AA and A+, I would expect the Astros minor league system will look a lot better next season.
I think BA is a bit of an outlier this year. Law had us number 3 and called us "still strong but a bit weaker" than last year. John Sickels: "Although the Astros don’t have as many impact talents as the Cubs, this is still a very strong farm system well positioned for the future, the near future." Other than the Cubs and the Twins, I'm having trouble thinking of teams where you could say there's a consensus among prospectors of having a stronger system, so I'd be very curious as to the other 6 that BA ranked ahead of us.
Keep in mind, every other system added a first round pick last year. We'll make a big jump when we add 2 top 5 talents in 4 months.
So by my count we have 4 Astros lists (BP, BA, Law, Sickels) This is the consensus using my terribly unscientific method of adding up their placements, since I'm having to wait for somebody and have nothing better to do. 1.Carlos Correa (4) (Consensus Top 3) 2.Mark Appel (8) (Consensus Top 50) 3.Vincent Velasquez (13) (Consensus Top 100) 4.Michael Feliz (20) 5.Brett Phillips (20) 6.Colin Moran (30) 7.Lance McCullers (30) 8.D.J. Fisher (33) 9.Josh Hader (35) 10.Domingo Santana (36) 11.Teoscar Hernandez (38) 12.J.D. Davis (48) 13.A.J. Reed (55) After Reed and Davis, opinions seem to vary a great deal Baseball America Spoiler 1.Correa 2.Appel 3.Velasquez 4.Feliz 5.Phillips 6.Moran 7.Hernandez 8.Hader 9.McCullers 10.Santana 11.Fisher 12.Tucker 13.Davis 14.Reed 15 Martes Baseball Prospectus Spoiler 1.Correa # 3 2.Appel # 35 3.Velasquez # 75 4.Brett Phillips 5.Fisher 6.Feliz 7.McCullers 8.Santana 9.Moran 10.Hernandez List only goes to 10 so I'm projecting using the other lists 11.Hader 12.Davis 13.Reed ESPN (Keith Law) Spoiler 1.Correa # 3 2.Appel # 44 3.Velasquez # 56 4.Moran # 73 5.Phillips # 76 6.McCullers 7.Feliz 8.Fisher 9.Hader 10.Davis 11.Hernandez 12.Fontana 13.Santana 14.Reed 15.Mengden Minor League Ball (Sickels) Spoiler 1.Correa 2.Appel Top 50 3.Feliz Top 75 4.Velasquez Top 100 5.Santana Top 100 6.Phillips Top 100 7.Hader Top 100 8.McCullers 9.Fisher 10.Hernandez 11.Moran 12.Kemp 13.JD Davis 14.AJ Reed 15.Conrad Gregor
