Also, I am hoping Gattis stays due to his presence in the batter's box as well: Spoiler Thanks Crawfish Boxes
I tend to doubt Castro sees much of any time at DH. I think Singleton/Carter/Gattis exclusively handle the DH. Carter thus far hasn't been terrible at 1B. He isn't gonna win any GG's but he is far from the catastrophe he is at LF. I think part of the appeal of acquiring Gattis is to "Singleton-proof" themselves. If Singleton struggles again the Astros are still guaranteed to get production out of 1B and DH for the next few seasons. Ideally of course Singleton does come around and it makes Gattis or Carter tradeable for a player that fits better in the OF, but that is down the line of course.
. I strongly disagree. Cueto would cost a minimum of 1 elite prospect plus 2-3 top 15. I'm talking correa or Appeal plus Folty and Ruiz.
LOL. Did you see the Justin Upton "haul"? Same situation. Cueto is a great player, but he's got 1 year left under team control. His price isn't as high as you think.
That's also why he serves no purpose for the Astros. They want to improve in 2015, but their target to be great is probably 2016 or 2017. It would be silly to trade for anyone that helps this year but not after.
Justin Upton is coming off a solid year where he put up an .833 OPS , 3.3 WAR and finished 17th in MVP voting. He makes $14.5M Johnny Cueto is coming of a year where he recorded a 2.25 ERA, 6.4 WAR and finished 2nd in Cy Young voting. He makes $10M. Cueto hasn't registered an ERA above 3 since 2010, and over the past 3-4 years has developed into one of the Top 3 pitchers in the NL not named Kershaw. If you're a GM and think an Upton-esque trade package nets you Johnny Cueto, you should be fired for incompetence if you don't pull that trigger.
You don't seem to grasp the concept of him being a FREE AGENT after next season. You don't give up a huge package for a guy that is only guaranteed to be there for one season, I don't care how good that pitcher is.
Most recent example is Jeff Samardzija. White Sox didn't give up a player anywhere near the caliber of Correa or Appel.
Agree with AWC. The return for elite players with 1 year of control is completely different than those with those with 3-4 years and has been consistently underwhelming compared to what the general population thinks is a good return. Examples: David Price, Jason Heyward, Justin Upton, etc. Good teams understand the math on trading stars for prospects and vice versa: A 1 year player can't generate enough surplus value to justify a huge return. Say for example David Price makes $20m in the last year of his contract and is a 6 WAR player. At the market rate of $6-7m per WAR, his total value is about $40m for season; subtract his salary and you're left with a surplus value of $20m. An elite prospect (i.e. top 10) with 6 years of team control produces on average 15.5 WAR over 7 seasons (LINK). At 6-7m per WAR, that's roughly $100m in value. Subtract even aggressive arbitration raises ($35+ for 3 years of arb or $50m for 4) and you're still left with nearly $50-65m of surplus value. And that's just for a straight all-star for elite prospect swap. Here's the math on the Gattis trade.
Using the Cueto's numbers, if you assume another 6 WAR season then his total and surplus values for the next season (/remainder of his team control) are $40m and $30m. AWC is technically right, the package that went to ATL for Gattis should be enough to get Cueto. Those three prospects are estimated to return $34m in surplus value to Cueto's $30m. The question is why in the hell would the Astros make that trade when they're not truly competing next season.
Agreed, but the rest of team is too high-variance to expect a playoff spot. Add Cueto and then maybe the Astros are competitive in playoff chase and/or even make the playoffs and get bounced early. Then what? Cueto is gone and all you get back is a supplemental first round pick worth $5-7m in expected value. I'd rather bet on subtle improvement to the .500 range and then sign a big FA to a multi-year deal next off season when big guns like Price and Cueto only cost a mid-first rounder.
Y'all seem to think I'm arguing for a Cueto trade. I'm not interested in any serious trade for a 1 year rental at this stage. I was more responding to the idea that you could get Cueto at an Upton price, which I find highly dubious, at best. I'll admit the package I threw out last night was hyperbolic.
First, it really comes down to this: I would prefer 1 year of Cueto (with the possibility of resigning, or, at minimum, receiving a good draft pick via QO) over 4 years of Gattis. Cueto is head and shoulders better than any pitcher, even player arguably, that we've had since 2005. Gattis isnt head and shoulders better than any of our OFers, and we have do have solid OF depth. And I like Gattis, A LOT, but we already have have solid OF depth, especially when you consider Tucker, etc. The Astros aren't going for the WS in 2015, so I do understand the risk of trading for Cueto for just that year. But we have to start winning soon, and Cueto would expedite that process way faster than Gattis. We also have $$$ to throw at Cueto to resign here, which is what I hope ultimately happens.
Why not aim for both? Getting Cueto now eliminates the possibility of getting Gattis. Getting Gattis now still leaves it possible to get Cueto (or a similar quality pitcher) next year. We certainly want to start winning now, but we don't want to do it at the expense of 2016 and beyond. They didn't spend 5 years rebuilding to take one shot with a team still filled with question marks.
Only if he has Cincy's defense behind him. Pence was just as good. Keuchel was amazing considering his defense and a lot of defense independent stats had him close to Cueto.
Except if you bring Cueto here now, it's probably tough to re-sign him unless you make the playoffs. If you show some improvement this year, then you can sell him this offseason on "come here and we'll make the playoffs". So I think we have a better chance on him (or a guy like him) in the offseason if we don't go for him now. Also, you using "solid OF depth" as an argument of Cueto over Gattis is misleading. a) Fowler is likely gone after this year, one way or another...and maybe sooner b) You can't count a guy like Tucker as depth yet c) Gattis isn't OF depth. He's OF if necessary. You need compare him to 1B and DH depth...where we have Carter + question marks right now.
I don't care if the whole team hits 0-the season.... I just want a bullpen that lives up to the hype.
