so you think he'll bat .341 again? really? based on what? I've got statistics that say he hasn't posted over .300 in his career until last year. His OBP has fluctuated greatly over his time and he's the definition of streaky. Last year he happened to streak for a full year.
Hah, y'all aren't even talking about the same player. Seal's talking about Carter and Stu responds with Altuve.
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>Sources: <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Yankees?src=hash">#Yankees</a>, <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/RedSox?src=hash">#RedSox</a>, <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Astros?src=hash">#Astros</a> continue to show strong interest in Andrew Miller.</p>— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) <a href="https://twitter.com/Ken_Rosenthal/status/540217577784741888">December 3, 2014</a></blockquote> <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script> I really wouldn't mind if we were being used as leverage with Miller too. Don't like spending our penny pinched money on a closer.
Maybe a tad off-topic, but Grantland is doing a piece on the 50 most un-tradable players. Springer was honorable mention, Altuve popped up at 46: Here's the link, and the excerpt below. If Tuve is only 46, I cant see anyone else making the list, sans Correa, maybe Appel? http://grantland.com/features/2014-mlb-trade-value-rankings-part-1/ Here’s what Altuve did in 2014: Led the majors with a .341 batting average Led the majors with 225 hits, the most by a second baseman in 78 years Led the AL with 56 stolen bases (in 65 attempts) Posted a 7.5 percent strikeout rate, the second-lowest in the majors He did that all in his age-24 campaign, he’ll be paid a measly $10.5 million total over the next three seasons, and it’s pretty much a lock that the Astros will pick up his 2018 ($6 million) and 2019 ($6.5 million) options, meaning they’ll control his rights through his twenties with no commitment beyond his prime years. So why isn’t he even higher? Here’s one NL executive’s assessment: “Different evaluators will treat a player with his unique skill set differently. Certainly a net positive asset value, but not close to my Top 50.” Another talent evaluator (mostly) jokingly called Altuve “Jeff Keppinger with wheels.”
Apologies, here's the rest of the excerpt on Altuve: For all of his gifts, Altuve remains a flawed player. His career walk rate is just 5 percent, which is pretty insane for someone who’s so small that there’s a unit of measurement named after him. He lashed 47 doubles in 2014 but managed just seven homers in 707 plate appearances. And according to multiple advanced stats, including Ultimate Zone Rating and Defensive Runs Saved, he’s one of the worst defensive second basemen in the majors despite his speed and athleticism. Though he’s an elite base stealer and baserunner, he didn’t become a star until his batting average jumped 58 points, a figure that was largely due to a 44-point jump in batting average on balls in play that’s hard to explain when looking at his stationary line-drive rate. It comes down to this: If Altuve is really a .340 hitter, he’s probably one of the 20 most valuable commodities in the game. If he’s really a .280-.290 hitter like he was before 2014, he’s a nice fantasy baseball player but little more than a league-average player in real life. And if he’s somewhere in between, he’s no. 46.
I think some people are severely underestimating the impact of an elite closer. It's not just about replacing a guy that has blown X amount of saves with someone that has blown X/2 number of saves. Sure, focusing on that could lead you to believe you could have won an extra 8-10 games. The key to having an elite closer is that it pushes all the other relievers down the list. For instance, if we can an elite closer, it would push Qualls (our expected closer) to 8th innings...then, that would push our 8th inning guy to the 7th inning. In other words, the addition of an elite closer makes us a lot better in the 7th, 8th, and 9th innings. It's not all about adding a closer so your 9th inning is awesome...it's about improving every inning that the starter is not pitching. That's why closers get paid the big bucks, because they have a much bigger impact than what's on the surface.
I concur with this. I would gladly give Andrew Miller a 4/$40M and turn a solid bullpen into a potentially great one for the next few years.
I agree about teams benefitting from quality closers... closers (and a solid bullpen overall) is the difference between great teams and average teams... but I disagree that you have to spend lots of money to find one (especially in a system that supposedly has a ton of quality arms). You can convert a failed starter into a closer... you can even introduce a future starter to the big leagues as a closer (Derek Lowe, Adam Wainwright). Wagner, Dotel, Lidge, Qualls all started games in the minors... and only Dotel really had an extended chance to start in the big leagues. Hell, Tony Sipp came out of nowhere to be a quality back of the bullpen guy and this is after they spent quality money on two guys who did very little (Albers/Crane). People are equating elite closers in baseball to elite QB's in football... its not exactly the same in terms of them being difficult to find. Whats hard is building a team that can get enough 9th inning leads to make a high priced closer worth it. This team, at one point last year, was averaging less than one true save oppurtunity/week.
This is very crude and ultimately bad way to estimate extra wins. Ultimately, in games where a closer actually matters, you're basically putting in Robertson in place of Fields or Sipp, whoever one will feel comfortable in the 6th/7th. It doesn't matter how badly our crappy long reliever when we're behind throws, the Astros aren't a team that expects a lot of high leverage late game situations in the first place. Also, Fields' FIP is much lower than his ERA. You may say that FIP is worthless and that the ERA is much better, but the Astros are clearly a team that would care more about fielding-independent numbers than most teams. And that's not all. Generally fringy starting-caliber pitching prosects have the capability of becoming great relievers. The Astros if nothing else has ridiculous pitching depth. While position players they're much more lacking. Grossman, Villar, Dominguez, how likely is it the Astros can replace them with above average starters from the minors? Pretty low? Basically after Correa no one else is projected to be a future stud. But the odds of there being a future closer in the farm system? I'd say it's quite good.
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>Source confirms: Andrew Miller to <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Yankees?src=hash">#Yankees</a> on a four-year, $36M deal. Physical is complete. Deal is done. First reported: <a href="https://twitter.com/JackCurryYES">@JackCurryYES</a></p>— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) <a href="https://twitter.com/Ken_Rosenthal/status/540970098576850944">December 5, 2014</a></blockquote> <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
Got to think this was us... <blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>Andrew Miller actually had a bigger offer from another team before signing with <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Yankees?src=hash">#Yankees</a>.</p>— Bob Nightengale (@BNightengale) <a href="https://twitter.com/BNightengale/status/540970651600044032">December 5, 2014</a></blockquote> <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
Dang it, I would have loved Miller at 4/36. I would have been fine with going up to 4/40. Rumor is he had a higher offer...
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>The Houston <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Astros?src=hash">#Astros</a> were in to the very end on Andrew Miller before he signed with the <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Yankees?src=hash">#Yankees</a>.</p>— Bob Nightengale (@BNightengale) <a href="https://twitter.com/BNightengale/status/540972989953875969">December 5, 2014</a></blockquote> <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script> <blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>Yanks sign Andrew Miller, so David Robertson likely goes elsewhere. Astros still in running.</p>— Brian McTaggart (@brianmctaggart) <a href="https://twitter.com/brianmctaggart/status/540973059906486272">December 5, 2014</a></blockquote> <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script> <blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>astros were in on miller. still in on robertson, romo, many other relievers</p>— Jon Heyman (@JonHeymanCBS) <a href="https://twitter.com/JonHeymanCBS/status/540974268742635521">December 5, 2014</a></blockquote> <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script> <blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>And for those keeping track: Astros also signed a pitcher out of the Dominican Republic named Harlen Florencio. He’s 19</p>— Evan Drellich (@EvanDrellich) <a href="https://twitter.com/EvanDrellich/status/540963571778068480">December 5, 2014</a></blockquote> <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script> <blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>Anthony Bass has elected free agency after being outrighted by the Astros. Tough year with intercostal strain, still a hard thrower w/upside</p>— Evan Drellich (@EvanDrellich) <a href="https://twitter.com/EvanDrellich/status/540962220864061440">December 5, 2014</a></blockquote> <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>Cashman said Miller had 4 yrs at $40M offer elsewhere, so <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Yankees?src=hash">#Yankees</a> went from 4-$32M to 4-$36M to get it done.</p>— Joel Sherman (@Joelsherman1) <a href="https://twitter.com/Joelsherman1/status/540991205228969984">December 5, 2014</a></blockquote> <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
Story of the last 2 years. Astros were in it until the end, didn't get it done. Always the bridesmaid, never the bride.
And RJ. And Beltran. And any top tier FA that wasn't over the hill or a hometown discount, right? (Hometown discount: Drabek, Biggio, Clemens, Pettite come to mind..surely others.)
