Lotto history 101, and the Rox

I found this take on the lottery, from Ralph to Akeem to Patrick interesting:

http://wizards.realgm.com/showarticle.php?artid=204

Lottery Conspiracy Theory ? A History
<http://wizards.realgm.com/pics/ewing_draft.jpg> May 21, 2003

By James Rouse

At the end of the 1982-83 season, the Houston Rockets were finishing a very disappointing season. Less than three years removed from the NBA Finals, the Rockets were in contention for the NBA?s worst record. The light at the end of the tunnel? By finishing so poorly, the Rockets ?earned? the opportunity to draft the much-heralded Ralph Sampson with the first overall pick in the 1983 draft.

But then a funny thing happened. The Rockets did not get much better during the ?83-84 season, and found themselves once more out of the playoffs as the season wound down. They continued to lose, and they were again one of the worst teams in the league. Were they worn out from another disappointing season? Did they give up on their coach? Or did they figure out that another season with the worst record would give them the top pick yet again, and the chance to install the ultimate ?Twin Towers?, Sampson and Akeem Olajuwon?

Regardless of the Rockets ? motivation (or lack thereof), they did indeed get the top pick again, and selected hometown hero Olajuwon (we won?t bring up the shooting guard that went third to the Bulls that year?). Fans, sportswriters, and even casual observers all wondered if the late-season losing trend that the Rockets endured could possibly have had anything to do with the chance to draft Olajuwon. The NBA saw a definite problem ? by simply giving the top pick to the team that finishes with the worst record, they reward a team for losses, and inadvertently provide incentive for bad teams to lose games on purpose. The integrity of the NBA suffered from these whispers, and the NBA decided to do something about it.

Enter the Draft Lottery. It seemed like a perfect solution. Give all the teams that don?t make the playoffs an equal chance at the top pick. This would eliminate the incentive for non-playoff teams to lose intentionally, and restore credibility to the process. Yeah, that?s it - the Lottery will restore credibility. Plus, it?s a made-for-TV event that will hold the interest of NBA fans, even if the teams involved have long since gone fishing for the summer.

The Lottery was put in place in time for the 1985 draft. This was fortunate, because 1985 saw the arrival of perhaps the best Big Man prospect in a generation. Most felt that Patrick Ewing would be better than Sampson and Olajuwon, maybe better than any big man since Wilt, Russell, and Alcindor. Without a Lottery, it would be a disaster to watch teams fall all over themselves to lose on purpose, trying to get the worst record and the right to draft Ewing.

So which team won that first lottery, with the guaranteed championships that would accompany Ewing?s arrival? By an amazing coincidence, the team from the nation?s biggest market ? the New York Knicks ? won that lottery. This despite the fact that they had the best record among non-playoff teams ? indicating that they were the least needy of the original Lottery?s seven teams. The team with the worst record? The Golden State Warriors, who fell all the way to #7 ? the lowest possible pick.

You didn?t have to be Oliver Stone to see a dark conspiracy behind the whole event. The best prospect in a generation, a new procedure put in place by the NBA, and the top market wins the prize. Stories abounded that the NBA placed the Knicks? envelope in a freezer prior to the event, ensuring that David Stern would know which one to pick, and that the Knicks would return to their glory days.

But it doesn't stop there - many years have had a "story" from the lottery. That is, a plausible scenario that would indicate why a team moved up to the top of the draft board. Consider the following:

1986: Boston and Philadelphia, the two premier Eastern Conference rivals of the 1980's, each acquire another team's lottery pick. Amazingly, they come up 1 and 2 in the lottery - a convenient influx of young talent to replace the old guard, or so it was thought. As it turned out, neither team ever suited up the players picked #1 & #2. The #1 pick (Brad Daugherty) was traded to Cleveland before the draft, and of course, the #2 pick was Len Bias.

1989: The first year of a growing trend. When the top of the draft looks like a load of dreck, give the pick to the woebegone franchises so that they don't complain as much when the really valuable players get sent to the important teams. Sacramento & the LA Clippers get the top two picks. Pervis Ellison and Danny Ferry . Yippee. (To add further insult, Ferry refuses to play for the Clipps, demanding a trade - while Pervis is sent to the Bermuda Triangle, I mean the Bullets, after only one year).

1990: The top pick goes to a team on the periphery of the largest market (NJ Nets). Unfortunately, the Nets pick Derrick Coleman over Gary Payton. Gary Coleman would have been as effective in bringing the Nets a championship as Derrick was.

1991: The start of another trend: Build up the preferred expansion teams. The NBA was desperate to have pro basketball thrive in the hotbed of college basketball, North Carolina. Conveniently, the 2-year old Charlotte Hornets get the first pick (Larry Johnson). Then, for added measure, the league awards the #2 pick to the Nets . Several other back-to-back top 2 picks will follow, as the league tries to give some teams 2 shots to catch lightning n a bottle. The Nets go for the all-Head Case team and pick Kenny Anderson.

1992: Another preferred expansion team gets the top pick (Shaq to the Magic), while the Hornets find another present under the tree, in the form of the second pick (Alonzo Mourning). The black sheep of the lottery, the Minnesota Timberwolves, have to settle for the door prize, Dream Teamer Christian Laettner.

1993: For the first time, a team wins the Lottery in consecutive years, as the Magic beat the 1-in-66 odds. Despite having the best record among lottery teams, Orlando gets to reload even further. They go one step further and trade the top pick (Chris Webber) for the third pick (Penny Hardaway) and three future first round picks. Meanwhile, the hapless 76ers receive their third top 3 pick in 7 years, but waste it on Shawn Bradley . Shortly after this lottery, the league changes the "rules" to make it more difficult for the better lottery teams to move up to the top.

1995: Fresh off the Chris Webber/Don Nelson fiasco, the Golden State Warriors are reeling. In steps David Stern to provide them with the #1 pick. Yet the Warriors pass on Garnett, McDyess, and Rasheed Wallace to take Joe Smith. They're still in the lottery to this day. The 76ers get their 4th top 3 pick in 9 years, and take our good friend Jerry Stackhouse. Someday they'll get it right?

1996: At long last, the 76ers finally do get it right. With their 5th top 3 pick in a decade, they take The Answer, Allen Iverson. David Stern never had to work so hard to force a successful draft upon a franchise.

1997: San Antonio suffers through an awful year as David Robinson goes down with an injury. Stern always had a soft spot for Robinson - MVP, active volunteer, ideal spokesman, and all-around good guy. So what's more natural than pairing him with the next "nice guy" superstar? Mr. Robinson, meet Mr. Duncan. Philly gets another top 3 pick (surprise!), and gets essentially nothing out of it (bigger surprise!), as they take Keith Van Horn, then trade him (with a load of driftwood) for Tim Thomas (and a ham sandwich).

1998: Time to pay off the bad teams again. The draft has a lot of question marks, as Michael Olowakandi, Mike Bibby, and Raef Lafrentz line up as the top 3 picks. Since they don't look like anything special, those picks go to the Clippers, Grizzlies, and Nuggets. The irony is that the real All-Stars were hiding in the next 8 picks. Jamison, Carter, Nowitzki, Pierce, and Bonzi Wells all went between 4 and 11.

1999: Year one post-MJ finds the league suffering from a lockout and decreased attendance. But nowhere was the hit felt as hard as Chicago. Even if Jerry Krause did run off the dynasty, the Bulls were the most popular team for a decade, and Chicago is still the 3rd largest market. Gotta have a good team there - hence, the #1 pick. Meanwhile, Charlotte looks to be in trouble. Attendance is declining, the owner is threatening to move. But the new rules give a team with the best non-playoff record (as the Hornets had) just a 5-in-1000 chance to move to the top. No problem, it will look less suspicious if they come in 3rd. And they'll still get Baron Davis.

2000: Stern's former assistant Rod Thorn takes a job running the NJ Nets. The team is a perennial lottery team in need of help. No problem! How about the #1 pick? Kenyon Martin's a nice addition to start the rebuilding process. And since there's not much behind him (Stromile Swift, Darius Miles), why not throw a bone to the Grizzlies and Clippers?

2001: NBA attendance and ratings are down. MJ is talking about returning to the court. The Wizards get the top pick. Any questions?

2002: Everyone has this one penciled in for Yao Ming to go to either the Knicks or the Warriors , two large market teams with significant Chinese populations. But Houston? Hmm, must be a red herring to throw all us conspiracy hunters off the trail. Of course, giving the #2 pick (Jay Williams) to the Bulls....

So what will it be in 2003? Obviously, LeBron is the Grand Prize to be awarded Thursday night, but 2nd and 3rd aren?t too shabby, with Carmelo Anthony and Darko Milicic available. But when the top pick is perhaps the truest contender to the ?Next Jordan? label, there will be a lot of interested parties vying for his services. So who will come out on top?

Maybe the Knicks, since they've been out of the playoffs for too long (2 years!) and the NBA needs a strong team in the Big Apple. The Cavs , to keep LeBron close to home, his Mama, and his Hummer? Coulda been the Wiz, as a going away/thank you present to MJ, but alas... Pat Riley has done a lot in the NBA, but his frosty relationship with the NBA office may just cause them to think twice about rewarding him with the next superstar. Maybe the Raptors, to help keep basketball alive and well in Canada ? after all, Mr. Stern wants a truly international game.

My prediction? I believe the NBA will reward The Logo for his four decades of excellent service. Jerry West is a champion on the court and in the front office. By all appearances, he is a decent person, who represents the NBA well (literally, in the form of his silhouette, which graces the NBA logo). He stepped in to run a dreadful Memphis franchise that hasn?t seen the light of day since its arrival into the league almost a decade ago. And to make matters worse, he?s handcuffed by a bad deal he inherited, in which he loses his first round pick unless it is the top overall selection.

You heard it here first ? when Jerry West strolls across the floor to shake David Stern?s hand, you?ll know that the NBA has pulled it off again. After all, why else would West even bother going to the Lottery, when the ?odds? say he has a 94% chance of leaving empty-handed, his valuable pick the property of the Pistons? No, this is the year the NBA finally decides the Grizzlies are worth supporting, and LeBron will have to get used to barbeque and country music. Of course, if it?s another team, I?ll be ready with the theory that explains it all.

James Rouse is a regular contributor to WizFans.com. He can be reached at jrouse9394@hotmail.com.