[GRANTLAND] Schaub Story

http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/9784782/bill-barnwell-week-5-nfl

 

There's nothing random about it. Hell, it would be 5 in 5 games but for the Chargers being stopped on the 1 after an INT.

When you don't throw down field ever, it's not a surprise when defensive backs bite on short passes...because they don't worry themselves much with you ever throwing long on them. Throw in the fact the QB doesn't have a rifle arm, and it only exacerbates the situation.

When the same pass continually gets picked off...and it's a pass in the flats...it's not a surprise that those turn into pick 6's.

 

http://nfl.si.com/2013/10/04/houston-texans-lack-offensive-diversity-causing-pick-sixes/

I think this analysis from Doug Farrar back on 10/3 hits the proverbial nail on the head. You could literally see how the 49er defense did the same things outlined here. And you can bet your last dollar teams are going to keep doing this until Kubiak gets it through his thick skull that changes have to be made:

Break It Down: Repeated pick-sixes prove Houston’s need to diversify route concepts
BY DOUG FARRAR

In today’s NFL, offenses don’t win pure physical mismatches for long before defenses adapt. We saw that Sunday night when the New England Patriots beat the Atlanta Falcons 30-23. Tight end Tony Gonzalez was ripping the New England defense up early in that game, but Bill Belichick switched it up by putting as many as four defenders on Atlanta’s most productive weapon late in the game, and especially in the red zone. The Falcons couldn’t adapt, and that proved to be the difference.

The game’s best offenses are full of schematic diversity, and that’s true of even the more conservative game plans. Perhaps most important is the ability to change offensive looks frequently enough to keep defenses on their toes.

For all their talent on the offensive side of the ball , the Houston Texans are not doing this. Many fans are blaming quarterback Matt Schaub for the majority of the team’s issues, and it’s true Schaub has been inconsistent at best. But when you talk to opposing defensive coordinators and players, it’s pretty clear they have Houston’s offensive code — and they’re cracking Gary Kubiak’s team wide open with it. Schaub has thrown pick-sixes in three straight games, and this trend became apparent when the Baltimore Ravens beat the Texans 30-9, in Week 3.

With 2:39 left in the first half, Baltimore linebacker Daryl Smith returned a Schaub pass 37 yards for a touchdown. And what should have been alarming to Kubiak and his staff was that Smith called it as it happened.

“It was just something we’ve seen on film through the week,” Smith said after the game. “We’ve been getting pressure on him, but he was getting rid of the ball pretty quick. I knew I had a chance to jump it. We got pressure on that play, and I jumped the route, and I was able to take it for a touchdown.”

The Texans ran bunch left out of the Pistol formation on this play, and they had two tight ends — Owen Daniels and Garrett Graham — in the formation. They tried to lift Smith with Graham running straight up the seam, and that would have worked except for one fact: The Ravens knew that in such a route combo, Schaub liked to work back to Daniels with the angle route underneath.

Now, one can’t blame Schaub entirely for this breakdown — it might have helped if Graham didn’t fall down — but the way in which Smith jumped the shorter route definitely seemed to indicate that the play was basically over before it began. Smith broke off Graham right as the tight end passed him on the seam route, and broke back under to cover Daniels.

One week later against the Seattle Seahawks, the Texans lost 23-20 in overtime, but the play that tied the game in regulation was a 58-yard pick-six by cornerback Richard Sherman with 2:40 remaining. Sherman is one of the league’s most athletic cornerbacks, but this play was less about beating anybody to the ball and more — once again — about beating the Texans with their own playbook.

Houston started the play with Andre Johnson in the right slot and Daniels outside the numbers. At the moment Daniels motioned inside to stack, Sherman motioned for safety Kam Chancellor to head up to the line to blitz. Reading this route concept correctly meant that the Seahawks knew there wouldn’t be anyone to block Chancellor, and he’d get a free release off the line. That’s what happened, and when Schaub ran boot action to his right and turned around to make the throw, Chancellor was already in his face. Schaub made an ill-advised throw, yes, but to blame him entirely is to miss the larger point.

“We had a couple of options,” Kubiak said after the loss. “We tried to stay aggressive throughout the game, we tried to make a play, and it ended up killing us. I wish I could call it again — run the ball, punt, and play defense. I’ll take the responsibility, though. I would have obviously called one hell of a better play.”

Here’s the problem, though — the Seahawks rehearsed that coverage against a similar offensive concept in their preparation for this game. That’s how easy it was for them to read and respond to what the Texans were doing.

“It was a fantastic call by [Seahawks defensive coordinator] Dan Quinn — something that we practiced during the week for a situation like this, and we practiced exactly that happening,” Seahawks head coach Pete Carroll said. “That doesn’t happen very often, but when it did, it was like the world stopped for a second.”

“I wasn’t watching it per se — I knew it was coming,” Sherman said. “We ran the same play against our scout team on Friday. It’s a play we’d seen on film that they like to run in short-yardage situations — roll Schaub out, and send the receiver on an ‘in-and-back-out’ route with a corner route behind it. You jump to the guy in the flat.

“As soon as they made the call, and we knew the situation they were in — it was third-and-short, and it was that play they liked. They motioned down into a stack, but just because you know it — it still takes some risk.”

Indeed it does. Had the Seahawks guessed wrong on this play, with Chancellor blitzing off the edge and Sherman jumping the flat route, the deep pass to Johnson could have been open even with safety Earl Thomas covering Johnson up top.

“I think a lot of it was made up of the call and everything coming together,” Quinn said Thursday of Sherman’s read of the play. “It’s another example of the guys and how hard they work to study and to go about it. So for him, recognizing an opportunity that would hopefully be there and it was, credit to him and the other guys in terms of the amount of preparation, as you know, that goes into … going into each game.”

There’s been a lot of talk this week about the fact that Schaub isn’t really able to audible in Kubiak’s offense as some quarterbacks are throughout the league.

“Once we called it, started the motion, it was game on,” Kubiak said on Monday. “So we just had a very, very poor play.”

Poor execution? That can’t be denied. But if Kubiak wants to fix what ails Houston’s offense, he should start by making it harder for opponents to read. It’s evident the rest of the league has figured it out.

 

It would actually be 6 in 5 games if that one wasn't bobbled last night. He had a clear path to the end zone and started running before having control of the ball.

For the record, I think all this has more to do with the play calling than Schaub himself. That doesn't absolve him at all, but these pointless 3-yard outs have to stop. They are incredibly high-risk low-reward plays.

 

I agree that the playcalling has to be accounted for when these Pick6s occur but could it be that the opposing defenses know from the team's playcalling that Schaub/Kubiak won't take a lot of down field bombs due to Schaub's lack of an arm? The few long plays that have been successful over the years happened on bootlegs and not because Dre/Walter/Martin/Posey/Hopkins beat their man down the sideline for a big play. Is that because Schaub can't gun it down field? All these defenses are doing is playing a zone and manning the middle of the field without giving any kind of respect for the downfield game.

 

I disagree. Gary Kubiak may have his shortcomings but he's not stupid. At least I don't think he is. We've all seen this offense hit on all cylinders and be a thing of absolute unstoppable beauty. That little flat pattern is designed to be a plan C, giving Schaub an opportunity to turn a play that's covered up into positive gain.

Unfortunately, Schaub is Spaghetto's mentally right now so he keeps hitting his three-yard out security blanket over and over and over because, as Max pointed out, he's afraid to throw it down field. And teams are sitting on it.

There are probably tweaks the team collectively can make to improve, but right now, Matt Schaub is 100% the biggest problem facing the coaching staff.

 

it's a chicken/egg situation with kubiak and schaub which to me clearly signifies that both need to go. opposing defenses are essentially saying they know what the kubiak is going to call before he does. regardless if he calls these plays because of schaub's limitations, he's still the guy that not only selected schaub to begin with but decided to stand by him all these years despite his consistent lack of success.

if kubes can't make it work with schaub - the qb he personally selected - within an offense that he personally designed and controls almost entirely - then what does that tell you? it's gotten to the point where you almost think that to gary the system itself is more important than the actual results. we routinely out gain our opponents, routinely beat our opponents in time of possession yet we routinely get beat... and yet for some reason he believes this philosophy is what matters most.

there is a fundamental flaw in the way this guy coaches. he's absolutely lost sight of the forest for the trees and if he hasn't figured out a way change 8 years into it it's hard to imagine he'll figure it out anytime soon.

 

if you watch the games you would see the randomness has probably helped Schaub

he should have several more interceptions and at least one more pick 6

all his throws look hesitant and weak

 

They know what Manning is going to call, too. QBs aren't drawing up plays in the dirt, and I can promise you teams aren't drastically altering game plans week-to-week - there's no time for that. The difference is execution. Again, I'll point out that the #1 defense in football sure as heck didn't look like they knew what plays were coming in the first half last week.

On every play, Schaub has multiple options running routes at different levels - AJ, OD, Graham, Hopkins, Foster... Unfortunately, he's so Skittles right now, teams *KNOW* that what's ordinarily designed to be his plan C is now his plan A and they're just sitting on it. He's a mess. I can't remember ever being witness to such a colossal mental breakdown by a starting NFL QB.

 

Remember Jake Delhomme's last season as the Panthers' starter? Or Ryan Fitzpatrick after he got that ridiculous contract midway through the season?

 

100% agreed.

Also yeah Kubes isn't stupid (as random overreaction fan would assume) the guy has won 2 superbowls as a OC in this league.

I think that Schaub mentally is just out of it right now, who knows if he can get out of it or not. As the grantland article said, he's not accounting for the defenders on the field, he's not making the right decisions.

 

He may not be stupid. But he does seem pretty inflexible. This isn't the same NFL it was 20 years ago when he was helping coach offensives to superbowls. The game... ESPECIALLY offensively, is so different. Heck, this isn't the NFL it was 5-10 years ago in that regard. And even I think the read option, etc. is overrated. But Peyton doesn't run that, Brees doesn't run that, Brady doesn't run that, Rogers doesn't run that. And they are prolific offensive machines (Patriots this week not withstanding).

Still, could Kubes offense be successful in today's NFL? Sure... it's a little time of possession, control the clock, obvious play heavy as opposed to innovative and scoring focused. But when you factor in he has to be designing the offense around Matt's limitations, I think Kubes can certainly design a SB winning offense in today's NFL with the right signal caller.

But so can a ton of coaches and OC's.

Kubes and Schaub are made for each other. Average meets average.

The Texans have a ton of talent otherwise. They are perfectly set up to have a freak, bad year, to get a top 15 draft pick, hope Mariota drops to them, plug him in pretty much right away, and be back in SB contention (back, if they ever were?) in VERY short order. Let go of Kubiak. Hire Gruden (I think Gruden would bring immediate respect, and likely also keep some of the existing staff, especially defensively where they seem fine.)

 

My point is why even call that play when you're trying to run out the clock? Run the ball and if you don't get the 1st, punt it (with the best punter in NFL history on your roster) and leave it in the hands of the defense.

I'm speaking of the seahawk game, of course.

 

Rogers and the Packers run a bit of the WCO actually, they just never had a great run game. I bet if the Texans fired Kubes and he went to be the OC for the Packers they wound instantly have a run game...

I agree his offense would work with the right QB, it's on him though to get that guy. It's on the coach to also pick the right players in the draft. People think GMs in the NFL work like GMs in the NBA but it's just not so. The coaches will usually have the final say in these things, the GM is just about figuring the worth of each player mostly. Who to build around. Etc. But it's on Kubes to realize if Matt can turn this around or if this is it for Matt.

I think Kubiak is a bit above average, He's a solid coach and I bet he'd make a better college coach than professional football one but that's beyond the point...

I don't know why everyone is so high up on Gruden. I get it that he's won a superbowl but his record after that has not been very special. He seems to me like a guy that benefited from what Dungy did. I'd rather get a guy that has either had a long history of successful coaching like Cowher or a new guy that has good coaching pedigree.

 

I don't know why everyone wants Gary's head. Gary isn't throwing pick 6s. Remove Schaub, problem solved. Getting rid of a top 5 QB coach when you're about to start a brand new QB search is NOT a smart move. Matt and Gary can be "tied at the hip" all they want, but Smith and McNair will separate them this offseason if Gary won't. I agree Kubiak should surrender playcalling duties, though.

 

That's probably fair. And on the whole, same can be said about Schaub. He's a bit above average, not just average. They are on the same level... and it's not an amazing level to be on... it's ok, but...

I kind of just threw out a name. For some reason, I can see Cowher rocking the boat more, in the sense that it might be a longer "turn-around" time. Maybe Gruden did just ride Dungy's coat-tails a bit. But it's not like his Raider squad wasn't solid when he left... AND, if Gruden is (i) already capable of taking a team with established talent and moving it forward instead of rocking the boat too much, and (ii) theoretically good with QB prospects.. it seems like a fit. I'd love a young up and coming whiz of a coach... but I have no ability to tell or judge who that might be. Did that describe Kubiak?

 

Opposing defenses are game planning for the Texans predictable offense and getting pick 6's off it. Seattle's CB Sherman said they practiced all week on that play because they know the Texans like to run the roll out quick pass on short yardage plays. They knew it and teams have been jumping on that play the last few weeks. A good coach would have been able to see this and counter it.

 

You sir are correct

 

I think he'd be a great college football coach. Where he can ride his system to the T every year. He'd also be a guy who seems big on being a good person off the field. Players seem to not mind playing for him so maybe he'd be a good recruiter. But mainly he can ride his system in College year after year and find more success than doing so in the NFL where things are constantly changing.

I guess that's right though. That Gruden would be a fit in that he took a successful team to the next level. He did have success in Oakland, I wouldn't be mad at the hiring. I'm just looking for that guy who can't be doubted. That Belichick or Coughlin.

I think Kubiak was a sought after HC at the time, that was so long ago it is hard to remember. He did win 2 superbowls as a OC so I'm assuming that there were other teams that thought highly of him.

It's harder to find that guy though, that guy that was a coordinator in the NFL that just fits into the head coaching role...or even the college guy whose genius transfers into the pros.

One guy comes to mind, Mike Zimmer. The Bengals DC has always had good defenses and he's a no-nonsense guy if anyone has seen Hard Knocks. I wouldn't surprise to see him get a look at HC (hopefully by the Texans) and he's a heavy blitzing guy and a lot of our younger talent is on that side of the ball. I think if there is a new HC that would do well for the Texans it's him.

 

That was a bad play call, obviously. Like I said, Kubiak does not need to be calling plays. But at the end of the day, Matt is the one who pulls the trigger. He should be cut loose first. If the team continues to ineptly flail offensively, then we can look in Kubiak's direction.