[ESPN Insider] Vegas odds

Broford · Aug 6, 2013

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/9543529/tuley-updated-2013-14-nba-title-odds

LAS VEGAS – The NBA Finals ended less than two months ago (on June 20, the last official day of spring), but with the 2013-14 schedule coming out Tuesday, it's as good a time as any to look at how the future-book odds have changed so far this summer (table with full odds at the bottom).

The two-time defending champion Miami Heat were the 7-4 favorite (plus-175 expressed as a money line) to three-peat at the LVH SuperBook when they wrapped up their title, and are still a solid 2-1 as of this week. The Oklahoma City Thunder -- with the expected return of Russell Westbrook from the knee injury that cut short his postseason -- are the second choice at 9-2, with the Chicago Bulls at 6-1 (down from 7-1 during betting this summer) and the San Antonio Spurs at 8-1 (raised from 7-1). But the biggest shifts in the futures have come from the teams that have made the most moves in trying to compete with those top contenders.

• The Los Angeles Clippers were as high as 20-1 for next season (partly due to the chance of Chris Paul opting for free agency), but then Doc Rivers was brought in to coach and Paul decided to stay. Now they're the co-fourth choice with the Spurs at 8-1.

• It was nowhere near "The Decision," but the most anticipated free-agent move involved Dwight Howard. His signing with the Houston Rockets dropped them to 12-1 (they had been dropped from 25-1 to 15-1 a week earlier based on speculation that he was leaning toward Houston), while it had the reverse effect on the Los Angeles Lakers' odds, as they were raised all the way to 100-1.

• The trade that sent Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett from the Boston Celtics to the Brooklyn Nets had an impact on both of those teams' odds. The Nets – who also signed free agent Jason Terry – have gone down from 40-1 to 15-1, while the Celtics were raised from 40-1 to 100-1 (obviously the oddsmakers don't think Keith Bogans and MarShon Brooks are suitable replacements, even if Brad Stevens can make the coaching move from Butler to the NBA and replace Rivers). Most of the other teams have had their odds stay relatively the same despite their moves (or lack thereof). Last season, over/under win totals were released by the LVH on Oct. 2, so we'll return to break down those numbers at about that time.

For now, let's look at what teams might present betting value if you're looking to get involved with future wagers as the teams are taking shape.

Indiana Pacers (15-1)
The Pacers are right where they were when I recommended them as my best future-book bet right after the NBA Finals had ended. This still looks like a fair price with pretty much the same team that took the Heat to seven games in the Eastern Conference finals. Also, they should be getting Danny Granger back.

Los Angeles Clippers (8-1)

I hope some readers grabbed the Clippers when I listed them as a potential best bet in that same column (let's ignore that I included them with the Lakers -- but at least I prefaced it by writing "if you think either/or both of those franchises will spend the money this offseason, they could offer some value." The Clippers did and the Lakers didn't. I wouldn't recommend the Lakers at the adjusted price, as the value is gone.

New York Knicks (25-1), Golden State Warriors (30-1), Denver Nuggets (30-1)

These three teams were ones I also listed as possible value bets, but if you didn't bite on them, they're now available at slightly better prices (Knicks up from 20-1, the Nuggets and Warriors both up from 25-1). Obviously a lot would have to go right for any of these to close the gap on the leading contenders and win the NBA title this coming season, but they've all flashed signs they're ready to take the next step. If I had to choose between taking one team such as the Spurs or Clippers around 8-1, or to bet these three teams individually to get around the same net payoff, I'd go with this trio.

Minnesota Timberwolves (100-1)

OK, I'm sure some people are asking for a long shot. That's tough with NBA futures; it's the league in which form holds the most. However, I'll make a case for the T-Wolves among all of the teams with triple-digit odds. Ricky Rubio and Kevin Love could be a great 1-2 punch – if they ever could be healthy at the same time. A lot rides on that. They also added Kevin Martin, and if Chase Budinger continues to improve, this team could surprise some people. Granted, these odds probably should be even longer. Even if they have a great season, it's much more likely they'll still fall well short of the title (heck, the franchise's previous playoff appearance was in 2004, so they'll probably be content just to make the postseason), but I just want to be on record in case they put it all together. Regardless, I think they should be a great ATS play on a game-to-game basis, or at least until the public catches on.
Click to expand...

Odds of winning 2013-14 NBA title*
(Courtesy LVH SuperBook)

Team June 20 Current (Aug. 6)
Miami Heat 7-4 2-1
Oklahoma City Thunder 9-2 9-2
Chicago Bulls 7-1 6-1
San Antonio Spurs 7-1 8-1
Los Angeles Clippers 20-1 8-1
Houston Rockets 25-1 12-1
Indiana Pacers 15-1 15-1
Brooklyn Nets 40-1 15-1
Memphis Grizzlies 20-1 25-1
New York Knicks 20-1 25-1
Denver Nuggets 25-1 30-1
Golden State Warriors 25-1 30-1
Dallas Mavericks 40-1 40-1
Los Angeles Lakers 25-1 100-1
Boston Celtics 40-1 100-1
Atlanta Hawks 50-1 100-1
Utah Jazz 100-1 100-1
Cleveland Cavaliers 100-1 100-1
Minnesota Timberwolves 100-1 100-1
New Orleans Pelicans 100-1 100-1
Portland Trail Blazers 100-1 100-1
Sacramento Kings 100-1 100-1
Toronto Raptors 100-1 100-1
Washington Wizards 100-1 100-1
Detroit Pistons 300-1 100-1
Phoenix Suns 300-1 300-1
Milwaukee Bucks 100-1 500-1
Philadelphia 76ers 100-1 500-1
Charlotte Bobcats 500-1 500-1
Orlando Magic 500-1 500-1
*List is re-ordered based on current title odds as of Tuesday, Aug. 6
Click to expand...

Firebomb525 · Aug 6, 2013

So how does one read this?

Miami has a 50% chance of repeating, OKC has a 22% chance of winning it all?

If so, we'd have a 8.33% chance of bringing home a title?...

(insert "So you're saying there's a chance..." pic)

ric_flair · Aug 6, 2013

im not a betting man but when someone gives you 500-1 odds you take it. Heres 20$ on orlando to win it all.

DonatasFanboy · Aug 6, 2013

15-1 on the Pacers and the Nets, 2-1 Heat, 6-1 Bulls...

Is there a line for winning the conference? The Pacers / Nets conference bet should be pretty attractive.

what · Aug 6, 2013

Terrible values:
the rockets at 12-1. Really?
The bulls at 6-1. Sure.

Good Values:
Clippers at 8-1 is a pretty good value.
The warriors at 30-1
pacers at 15-1 are extremely good values.
the grizzlies at 25-1

chrispbrown · Aug 6, 2013

what said: ↑

Terrible values:
the rockets at 12-1. Really?
The bulls at 6-1. Sure.

Good Values:
Clippers at 8-1 is a pretty good value.
The warriors at 30-1
pacers at 15-1 are extremely good values.
the grizzlies at 25-1
Click to expand...

Rockets bad value? 12-1 is pretty generous. I can't say for certain we are even winning the conference, let alone the title.

Bulls is pretty nuts.

Gotta say Pacers is the best bet.

chrispbrown · Aug 6, 2013

Also I wouldn't bet Miami.

Something feels wrong to me with them this year. Don't forget they were a rebound or missed 3 away from 1-2 in the finals.

jtr · Aug 6, 2013

This sounds about right to me. The smart money is always way ahead of everyone else. Hollinger sometimes is better at predicting the upcoming NBA season. But not always and not by much. And I can just about guarantee that he will not be publishing his forecasts for next season.

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