A Season of Lost Opportunities

This has been one of those rare seasons where you can pick out and identify several individual moments and games that are really hurting the Rockets with both their chance of making the play-offs and their confidence on the road. I have seen all but a couple of games this year so I have seen just about every wasted possession, bad decision and last minute loss the Rockets have had this year.

The unforgivable losses

Friday, Nov 15th the Rockets lose at the Phoenix Suns 87 to 88.
I remember this game real good. It was the first time this year that I came away feeling really empty after a loss. In our two previous losses to Indiana and Seattle we were just out played and never really in control of either of those games and it was obvious from the start of those games that winning would be a long shot. But this game came right after a huge home court victory against Portland and Steve had been playing at a MVP level all year. Unfortunately towards the end of the Portland game Steve was fouled hard in the air by Rasheed Wallace landing on his back, shoulder and neck. Steve finished the game strong hitting the game winner that night but it was obvious that the fall must have affected his game because when he came out against the Suns he was clearly not the same player that he had been during the first 6 games of the season.

Neither team looked particularly sharp but the Rockets appeared to have control through out the 1st three quarters and most of the 4th. However, the Rockets just could not put the ball in the bucket at the end of the 4th quarter. While continuing to hold a slight lead our best free throw shooter went to the line to basically seal the victory with just over a minute to go. But Cat walked up to the free throw line and clanked two off of the iron. Maurbury then hit a shot in the closing seconds to give Phoenix what seemed like their only lead of the night. The Rockets had one more chance to win but Eddie Griffin could not connect on a three and the game was over. Just like that the Rockets lost a game they had led for almost 47 and ½ minutes.

I tried consoling myself with the thought that every team has one or two of these a year. Little did I know that this was the tip of the iceberg.

Sunday, Nov 24th, the Rockets lose at the Clippers 89 to 90
The game ended almost exactly like the loss to the Suns. With the Rockets up and a chance to ice the game with two free throws, Moochie Norris walks up to the line and clanks to free throws. I knew at that second that we would loose the game. Of course Eric Piatkowski then took the ball to the hoop for the winning basket and the Rockets lost another one that they should have won. This is a game that saw the Rockets get blown out of the 1st quarter but totally dominate the 2nd and 3rd quarters and were in complete control going into the 4th quarter. In the end we gave an opponent that was down a small ounce of hope by missing free throws at the end of the game and the Clippers parlayed that into a last second victory.

Friday, Dec 13th the Rockets lose at Memphis in OT 109 to 114
This would have been a real fun game to watch if the Rockets had won. There was definitely a lot of drama but once again we were victims of our own demise. More missed free throws at the end of the game by Cat and Steve found us just trying to tie it to get it into overtime. Francis nailed a three (reminded me of when he the three he hit in Vancouver in his rookie year to send a game into over time) to send it into overtime but we could not manage any offense after that. I could have looked at this as just one hell of an effort by Memphis but after breakdowns and missed free throws on the road to Phoenix and LAC it was obvious that a pattern was developing here. Not only were the Rockets having a very hard time getting wins on the road but it was starting to look like the Rockets could not get up for some of the lesser teams in the league. Losses in games when we were in control in the closing minutes were starting to add up at an alarming rate.

Saturday, Dec 14th the Rockets lose at home to the Clippers 83 to 94
The Clipps dominated from start to finish. The Rockets were never really in this one. This would have been much easier to except that the Rockets were just suffering from dead legs on the tail end of a back to back but the Clipps were also on the second game of a back to back and they were playing on the road. Couple this game with the fact that it was just another loss to a team the Rockets should have beaten in what should have been one of the cushiest parts of the schedule and we now had very real cause for concern.

Monday, Dec 23rd the Rockets lose at home to the Jazz 91 to 96
This was a game that looked under control most of the night but the Rockets were never able to deliver a knock out punch. The thing that stuck out most in this game was the fact that in the closing minutes the Rockets had a nice little lead. Unfortunately Steve Francis looked like a deer in headlights at the end of the game and you could see the confusion in the expression on his face as he tried to dribble the ball up the court with his head down into traffic and turning the ball over on several occasions. The Rockets lost this one simply because the man controlling the ball at the end of the game made a series of bad decisions that led to no shot or an extremely bad shot or a turnover. Utah capitalized and won the game.

Friday, Dec 27th, the Rockets lose at home to the Knicks 99-83.
The Rockets just did not show up for this game and got toasted. What made this so bad is that this was one of the worst teams in the league and the Rockets did not even give them a decent contest. There was no excuse for this loss or the manor in which the Rockets lost this game.

Saturday, Jan 4th, the Rockets lose at home to the Warriors 86-84
Isolation basketball at its worst. No passing and terrible shooting along with some very bad decision-making and key turnovers late in the game cost us this one. The one thing I remember more than anything else is sitting in front of my TV in the closing seconds yelling at Steve to watch out for Bobby Sura just before Sura picked his pocket and took the ball the other way for a game winning uncontested basket. It never appeared that Steve even considered passing the ball out of the double team and the whole team paid the price.

Friday, Jan 10th, the Rockets lose at the Hawks 84 to 75
This game reminded me a lot of the 1st meeting between these two. The Rockets fell seriously behind in the 1st half but charged back in the 3rd quarter to look like they would pull off the come from behind against the Hawks twice in one season. However, unlike the 1st game the Rockets were not able to maintain their 3rd quarter intensity through out the second half. I only remember 2 other things about this game and that is that we got our asses whipped again by a seller dweller and that Yao Ming got his first technical.

Friday, Jan 24th, the Rockets lose at home to the Pistons 98 to 74
A complete disinterested performance by the Rockets. It’s as if the Pistons were the only team on the court most of the night. Yao Ming only had 4 shots all night long. Another case of isolation basketball all night. Francis only had 2 assists the entire game and never looked to involve anyone else in the offense on a night where he only hit about a 3rd of his shots. It’s not so much that the Rockets lost to the Pistons, but it’s how they lost.

Sunday, Jan 26th, the Rockets lose at the Bulls 100 – 98
Another game that was lost by the poor decision making of Steve Francis. Francis was just about the only player on the team that was having a bad shooting night and for some reason he decided to just play ISO ball and jack up 26 shots only making about a third of them. Yao Ming heated up late in this game but Steve Francis decided to quit going to him when the game was on the line and play more ISO ball. Another inexcusable loss.

Wednesday, Jan 29th, the Rockets lose at home to the Mavs 104 to 81
Rarely have I seen the Rockets play a better half of basketball than the 1st half of this game. It didn’t last however and the Rockets played the absolute worst quarter of basketball and eventually the worst half of basketball that I have ever seen. No second half intensity as Michael Finely took turns torching James Posey and Cuttino Mobley on his way to one hell of a 3 point shooting night. Along the way Posey completely lost his composer and started playing dirty while Steve forgot to include Yao Ming in the offense and on those rare occasions when he did Yao Ming had completely lost his rhythm and was ineffective. This game had two very big lessons, ball movement like we had in the 1st half makes for a very efficient offense as opposed to the inefficient ISO offense of the second half. And second, you most come out and play 2 halves, just because you whip a team in the 1st half is no guarantee that they will play dead for you in the second half.

Wednesday, Feb 5th the Rockets lose at the Cavs 105 to 102
The Rockets spent 3 quarters ignoring Yao Ming giving him only one shot in the 1st half. If not for Mo Taylor, who was on fire, we would have been behind by 20 going into the 4th. With about 5 minutes to go in the 4th however it appeared as if Rudy ordered his guys to give Yao Ming the ball because all of a sudden Steve and Cat both started dumping the ball into the post to Yao Ming and he came up big. It looked as if Yao Mings defense was feeding off of his offense as he completely cooled off Z making him miss all of his shots late and even blocked one of his shots and streaked down the court in front of everyone for what looked like an easy go ahead basket. Unfortunately Steve made one of the worst passes you could make and the ball was picked off with out ever coming close to Yao Ming. Another big loss, this time to the worst team in all of basketball.

Friday, Feb 14th, the Rockets lose at home to the Heat 94 to 82
Will they ever learn? When the Rockets include the whole team in the offense it just runs so much smoother. Steve Francis had a bad shooting night only making a 3rd of his shots. But don’t think for a second that a bad shooting night will discourage Steve Francis from taking the majority of the shots while ignoring Yao Ming. Oh by the way did I mention that Yao Ming hit half of his shots but only getting 8 attempts while some of those come when the game was already decided. Steve Francis gets exactly 1 assist that came late in the game. Steve Francis plays ISO ball all night and the Rockets offense suffers because of it.


Futility against the weak!

Of the Rockets 24 losses 10 come against teams with a combined record of 163 wins and 296 losses for a winning percentage of .355! 41% of the Rockets losses are against the bottom dwellers of the league.

2 losses against the Clippers, the last place team in the Pacific division and tied for 6th worst in the NBA.
1 loss against the Sonics, the next to last place team in the Pacific division.
1 loss against the against the Warriors, the third worst team in the Pacific.
1 loss against the Grizzlies, the next to last place team in the Midwest and 3rd worst team in the NBA.
1 loss to the Cavs, the worst team in the Central and the NBA.
1 loss to the Bulls, the 3rd worst team in the Central and 5th worst in the NBA.
1 loss against the Hawks, the 4th worst in the Central and 7th worst in the NBA.
1 loss to Miami, the Worst team in the Atlantic and tied for 6th worst in the NBA.
1 loss to the Knicks, the 2nd worst team in the Atlantic.

Of those 10 losses 5 came in front of the home crowd! Of the 10 worst teams in the NBA the only 3 teams we have not logged a loss to are Orlando, Toronto and Denver. We still have at least 1 game left with each of those 3 teams.



The Prediction

On January 24th in the thread titled ‘The Long Spiral Down’ I made the following prediction:

My prediction is this…The Lakers will over take the Rockets for the eighth and final play off spot by the middle of February.

http://bbs.clutchcity.net/php3/showthread.php?s=&threadid=50431

It’s the first line in the eighth paragraph. After the Lakers beat the Knicks this weekend they will be tied with the Rockets for the eighth play-off spot. On Tuesday night February the 18th the Rockets and Lakers will play for sole possession of the 8th play-off spot. The stage could not be more fitting for how the season has gone. If the Rockets had just taken care of business when the opportunity was there then this game would not be anything more than Shaq vs. Yao Ming II. As it stands a victory would give us the tie breaker advantage in the event the Lakers and Rockets have the same record at the end of the year and could propel the Rockets out of their current funk. A loss should just about complete the destruction of the Rockets psyche.

This is one prediction that I hope I get wrong. Absolutely nothing is gained by missing the play-offs and valuable experience is lost. For those that say making the play-offs this year is no big deal, I would say that is just crazy. There is no better teacher than high intensity basketball and the play-offs are just that.

Les Alexander wants to make the play-offs and believes that he has the talent necessary to make the play-offs now. Its one thing to loose to the upper echelon teams like we did during our 45 win season a couple of years ago but to miss the play-offs on the heal of so many loses to the absolute worst teams in the NBA and at home could become an unforgivable failure for Rudy T. I’m not saying that I would fire Rudy T and I am not advocating firing him but if I were the owner then I would have to take a very long and hard look at the coaching position to determine if we still had the right man for the job.

Rudy T had better be taking a similar look at the personnel on his roster as well. Has Steve Francis shown enough improvement over the last 4 years and this year in particular to indicate that he will eventually learn how to play team ball? Is Steve’s recent admission in the paper that he would be willing to play the 2 guard a look inside the mind of a player that is starting to loose faith in his ability to learn how to play the point guard position efficiently? Maybe he thinks that he would benefit from a move from the point to the 2 guard in the same way that Allen Iverson and Jason Terry benefited from the same move.

As important as the next few weeks could be in determining the Rockets play-off chances failure to make the play-offs could make the off-season a season of change.

 

I thought the offense was efficient in both of the last two games against the Jazz but in the first our defensive intensity let us down.

Against the Heat we just plain sucked. Maybe we are starting to see more a more games where Steve tries to get the whole team and Yao Ming in perticular involved through out the game and fewer and fewer of those stinkers last night.

I wonder if Steve looked at the line-ups and thought that the Heat were in such bad shape that he could use this as a game to ratchet up his points per game stats and just did not think that team ball was needed.

 

The Silver Lining in all of this is that I do think Steve Francis is putting together more and more good games. Including the all-star game I thought that he had 3 games in a row where he really played like a great offensive point guard. But then there is the Miami game . I thought he had 2.5 really good games against Dallas, Minnasota and Sac with another game in Minnasota that was not bad (offensively) but then came the Cleveland game . So I guess with Steve we have to ask ourselves, is that enough evidence to show that he is starting to grasp it, slowly but surely or will the good games continue to be the exception rather than the rule through out his career? I guess we have the remainder of the season to figure that one out.