Hollinger's Revised OKC/Houston Projections

I think Vegas has us winning 33.5 games? If I were a gambling person, I'd put in a small fortune by over. Not that I trust Hollinger's projection (to me nothing is more worthless than these win/loss projections). But I just don't believe this new Rox team will win less than 33 games. I think we'll be contending for a playoff spot.

 

^ to buy over

 

Yeah, but you need about 44 wins to be in the playoffs. Do you really think the Rockets will get 40? I don't, and I'm an optimist when it comes to my Rockets.

 

I had us around .500 with the addition of Harden.

Not a guaranteed playoff spot, but I think we'll be in the race for 7th or 8th seed.

It's going to be VERY tight this year for those last 2 spots.

 

the problem with modeling a team like Houston, is the only player who played the majority of the season as a starter last year was Chandler Parsons. extrapolating per minute numbers for somone like Asik and trying to take a stab at projected stats for a rookie heavy rotation at PF/C leaves a large margin of error.

it wouldn't shock me if this team is fighting for the 8 seed as presently constructed.

 

I agree. A team full of returning vets is far more easy to predict, and even then its often times very wrong. Ill say again that I feel our seed will be in the 7-10 range. 7 if most everything goes right, no major or long term injuries, the chemistry comes together quickly, along with some help from a couple other teams having some of the aforementioned problems and us not.

I saw us at 12 or 13 before this trade, and although there is no question Harden/Cook/Aldrich is better than Martin/Lamb, I am having trouble believing this difference will allow us to leap 5 or 6 teams. Unfortunately, this puts me thinking 9 is the most realistic number. Please not another 14th pick please.

 

I'm not really doing it based off models. I'm doing it purely based off my knowledge of our team and NBA basketball. I feel like this team is a lot stronger than most realize, but I don't think it is a 44 win team by any stretch. I don't think it's impossible, just highly unlikely.

 

I would put OKC, Lakers and Spurs into the top tier of the West. Clippers and Grizz are most likely your 2nd tier teams.

Golden State, Sactown and New Orleans are relatively hopeless.

That leaves Denver, Dallas, Minnesota, Portland, Utah, Phoenix and Houston (7 teams) fighting for 3 spots.

I will go ahead and peg Phoenix for the number 9 spot right now so 50% chance at making the playoffs?

 

i'd have Denver in tier 1. they are just too deep to fail in the regular season.

And Utah is probably tier 2. they were good last year, now they've upgraded via trades, and their youngsters look like they took a big step forward.

 

I think most of it depends on how Linsane Lin is. If his knee is okay and he has decent point and assist averages although his backups suck, we should be good enough to be clawing toward that 8 spot.

 

My take, this team will be in the playoff hunt after the ALl-star game. I don't expect much more than that.

As such, I'd take the Vegas odds that we get >34 wins. 40 is optimistic but doable if Linsanity returns, chemistry is right and no big injuries.

 

37 is quite a fair assessment.

Plenty of variables that could go 'well' which would see us as a much better team than that though!

 

I think Denver and Utah definitely make the playoffs.

Dallas and Minnesota top the rest based on talent, but both teams have injuries to major players. If Nowitski continues to have knee issues Dallas won't make it. Minny can ride the storm, I think.

We're on Portland's level. One of us will make it if Dallas slips.

 

40~43 wins

goals：30 home wins 15 away wins

45 - 37

 

14th pick here we come (again)!! let's draft another undersized PF!!


but i think we will make some noise in next season (13/14) or 14/15,, when our rookies (D-Mo, Royce, Jones) improve,, also Lin-Asik-Harden comfortable playing big minutes and creates a chemistry between them,,

 

Now that we're most unlikely to be in contention for a top 8 pick ... I would much rather we make the playoffs and pass our lottery-protected pick to Atlanta, so that we are no longer handicapped in dealing our 1st round pick if necessary to trade for a second star player.

We already have enough youngsters to develop, including Machado, Cook, Morris, White, DMo, T Jones, Smith and Aldrich as it is. No need for another 10-20 pick.

 

Houston ^
OKC v

I believe Houston is going to be in contention, it would not surprise me if we make the playoffs. We got Harden for his scoring/defense and his toughness, Asik for his rebounding and blocked shots and Lin, for his leadership and smartness in handling the basketball. I know it was preseason, I can't help to see the box score that almost every game, the Rockets had 20+ assists. In almost every case, the team with the most assists usually wins the game. The Rockets have hungry players in Harden (who will show he can play better as a starter), Asik (wants to make a name of himself) and Lin (still not getting the respect). Add Parsons with Patterson, we got a team full of driven players. As for OKC, I believe this trade will hurt Durant and Westbrook seeing their franchise is going to treat them like assets. The Thunder is still the best team, but I don't think they will play with invulnerability they once had.

 

I have the Rockets going from 27 wins to 34 wins. 7 games is a fairly large win column addition for a one position upgrade. I do hope I am wrong.