[sigh] Longhorn Offseason Thread

SuperBeeKay · Mar 5, 2012

Ziggy said: ↑

Who's that at #2? I can't quite make it out...
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its the longhorns if you forgot to read, i hope that helps aggy

SuperBeeKay · Apr 1, 2012

http://www.justin.tv/bevoinva

for the spring game

password: longhorn

alexcapone · May 4, 2012

Why isn't Texas playing Rice this year?

Ziggy · May 4, 2012

alexcapone said: ↑

Why isn't Texas playing Rice this year?
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Because the LHN ratings from the Rice/UT game were so low last year.

giggles

MourningWood · May 4, 2012

27-25.

Still feels good, man.

E_Saiyan · May 21, 2012

Can someone with ESPN Insider access please post this article in its entirety? Thanks.

http://insider.espn.go.com/college-...exas-longhorns-chances-win-bcs-title-2012-ncf

E_Saiyan · May 21, 2012

E_Saiyan said: ↑

Can someone with ESPN Insider access please post this article in its entirety? Thanks.

http://insider.espn.go.com/college-...exas-longhorns-chances-win-bcs-title-2012-ncf
Click to expand...

Nevermind. Found the article after a quick Google search. Here it is:

ESPN Insider's "20 teams that can win it all" series is previewing each of the top 20 teams in Brian Fremeau's five-year program metric (for a full explanation, and links to all of the previews as they are published, click here), with the help of ESPN's Stats & Information Group. This is the entry for Texas.

ESPN's HornsNation

HornsNation ESPN.com's HornsNation covers everything Texas, including college football and recruiting. HornsNation
More:
• Recruiting news | Blog | Forum

AUSTIN, Texas -- During the halcyon days of 10-plus wins and title runs, the Texas Longhorns, in an apropos stereotype, were led by a gunslinger in a white hat or, in this case, helmet.

There was Vince Young running and passing all over everyone before ultimately sprinting into the corner of the end zone against the USC Trojans in the Horns' BCS Championship Game victory. Colt McCoy, with his Texas twang and pinpoint accuracy, followed. He carried Texas to new heights before being carried from the field against Alabama with the national title on the line.

Now, after two years of bumbling ineptness the likes of which have not been seen in Austin since John Mackovic roamed the sidelines in the 1990s, there are some, armed with reems of statistics and the knowledge the roster is once again bursting with young talent, claiming that Texas could once again challenge for a berth in the BCS Championship Game.

To those there is but one argument to be made: Have you seen Texas' quarterbacks?

Let's break down both the strengths and the weaknesses of the Longhorns' BCS title potential, looking first at the reasons Texas could prove capable of winning it all.

Why Texas can win it all

This could be a truly elite defense
Texas will have to lean heavily on its defense if it wants to contend for conference and national titles, and luckily for the Longhorns, this unit can more than bear the weight.

Big 12's best?

How Texas' defense performed in several key categories in 2011.
Category Performance Rank
PPG 22.2 2nd
Total YPG 306.1 1st
Rush YPG 96.2 1st
Pass YPG 209.8 1st
3rd down pct 33.7 2nd

Seven of 11 starters are back on what was the No. 11 defense nationally in 2011. In fact, for a five-game stretch of the schedule from Kansas through Texas A&M, only Alabama and LSU proved to be tougher when it came to yielding yards than Texas. The Horns were by many metrics the best defense in the Big 12 over the course of the season, and they ranked second in Football Outsiders' defensive efficiency numbers, behind only Oklahoma State.

Like the Tide and the Tigers, only twice did the Longhorns allow a touchdown pass of 20 or more yards. For Texas, both came against Baylor in the final regular-season game, with defensive end Jackson Jeffcoat playing sparingly due to a shoulder injury that would eventually require surgery.

Jeffcoat, along with bookend Alex Okafor and the three most important pieces in the secondary, is back in 2012. That means each now has a year of seasoning under defensive coordinator Manny Diaz and his defense, which purportedly has in excess of 130 blitz packages.

Not that Texas will need that many. Because Texas will go as many as 10 deep across the defensive line it will be more apt to simply wear down opponents in an even more effective manner than it has in the past. And this has been a defense that has been effective. Texas, under previous coordinator Will Muschamp and now under Diaz, has led the Big 12 in total defense in each of the past four seasons, barely yielding 300 yards per game in the past two. Even during the team's struggles in 2010 and 2011, this has been a unit that has performed at a very high level -- and there are reasons to believe they'll be even better this year.

One reason is NFL talent. Jeffcoat and Okafor both have first-round potential (each made the first round of Todd McShay's early 2013 mock draft, Jeffcoat at No. 3 and Okafor at No. 25), and safety Kenny Vaccaro and cornerback Carrington Byndom could both be selected in the top three rounds in 2013.

Add to that three linebackers, each being considered an upgrade at his position, and it's no wonder Vaccaro is confident in boasting this spring, "We're already a better team," despite having played no one yet.

This unit is deeper and more talented at every position, and is in its second year with Diaz. And if Texas is to even enter the BCS title conversation, it will be because of a defense that could post some pretty dominant numbers in 2012.

The running game could be one of the nation's best
We'll get into the concerns facing Texas' passing game soon enough, but all is not totally lost on offense. The Longhorns know they potentially have one of the top running games in the country with Malcolm Brown, Joe Bergeron and the incoming national player of the year, Johnathan Gray, forming a very talented backfield trio.

Insider's KC Joyner detailed earlier this offseason how Texas' running game could have a breakthrough in 2012, and it's also important to keep in mind that the Longhorns ranked in the top third of the country in yards per carry last season, even while dealing with several shortcomings in the passing game. Don't be surprised if that number rises this season.

Why Texas won't win it all

The quarterback play is a serious concern
McCoy and Young did not begat another Heisman candidate.

[+] EnlargeDavid Ash
Ray Carlin/Icon SMIDavid Ash will have to step up his game as a sophomore.

In fact, at this point, after a 13-12 record over the past two seasons, Texas still doesn't even have a starting quarterback. If anything is to be Texas' undoing in 2012, it will be this inescapable truth and glaring omission.

That's because while all signs point to Texas being better at every position across the offense, in particular running back, the forecasting of the quarterback play remains fraught with the murkiness that accompanies the shake of the magic eight ball.

Sophomore David Ash is the best-guess starter at this point. He steps into that role after a season in which his interceptions (eight) were double that of his touchdowns. (For those counting, that's 36 interceptions thrown by Texas QBs since Colt McCoy was knocked out of the 2009 title game.)

For Texas to win in 2012, the quarterback play has to provide at least a modicum of production. Game management has become the catch phrase among the coaches, especially given the potential of the team's running game (for more on that, see above). Similar to 2011, they will run the ball on at least 65 percent of their plays in order to showcase this talent and hide the aforementioned deficiency.

Here's the good news: While still not having the confidence to name Ash the starter, the coaching staff has praised the rising sophomore's understanding of the offense as well as his increased maturity in the pocket. Ash no longer throws the ball just for the purpose of throwing it, but instead throws it with purpose. Couple that with an increased awareness of when to throw the ball away and Texas believes it might have a quarterback who can manage the game.

But as Texas coach Mack Brown often points out, the Big 12 is a point-scoring league, not a conference whose champs have relied upon defense and ball control.

Closing out drives could be an issue
To score those points Texas will have to be effective in the red zone and with downfield throws. Recent history doesn't foreshadow great success in either area.

Ash and Case McCoy, a five-game starter in 2011, were primary factors in Texas' passing offense having the lowest red zone passing efficiency rating (66) in the Big 12 since 2004 (the second lowest, 66.1, was posted by Texas the previous year), according to ESPN Stats & Info. Texas was also 1-for-11 passing in the red zone on third down in conference play (9.1 percent). Again the pages have to be turned back to 2004 to find a worse percentage in the Big 12.

Airing it out

David Ash's throws of 10+ yards during the 2011 season.
Stat Wins Losses
Comp-Att 15-28 6-24
Yds per att 14.6 3.9
TD-Int 3-0 0-5

Couple that with Ash's 33.1 completion percentage on passes of 10 yards or more and the Longhorns are left with an offense that is often stymied when it does get into scoring position. (And, as the table to the right shows, it's an offense that has done much better when Ash has been able to connect on his longer throws.)

Three points is not enough to keep up with the likes of Oklahoma. And while Texas has been exceptional at field goals -- eight game winners made in Brown's career against no misses -- it will have a true freshman at kicker in 2012. No true freshman has ever made a game winner for Texas in the Brown era.

The projection

Brian Fremeau provides his projected record for Texas in 2012, in addition to the "swing" games on the Longhorns' schedule. Projections are a function of the win likelihood of a team in each regular-season game based on Football Outsiders' F/+ projected team ratings and home-field advantage. Projections for all FBS teams will be published in the FO Almanac, available in July.

Most likely result: 9-3 (32 percent likelihood)
Projection window: 8-4 to 11-1 (91 percent likelihood)
Swing games: at Oklahoma State, vs. West Virginia, at Texas Tech, vs. TCU, at Kansas State

The Texas offense was a huge liability in 2011, and dramatic improvement on that side of the ball is the only way the Longhorns can seriously contend for the Big 12 title this year. Texas needs consistency from the quarterback position, as the Longhorns ranked 87th nationally in avoiding three-and-outs a year ago (37.8 percent of non-garbage drives).

Texas can lean on its stellar defense as several championship-caliber teams have done in the past, but the Longhorns will be tested by potentially stellar offenses in Oklahoma State, West Virginia and Oklahoma in consecutive weeks starting Sept. 29. Our FEI projections give the Longhorns only a 30 percent chance of grabbing two or more wins in that three-game stretch. The second half of the schedule is more manageable, especially if the Longhorns get some confidence from the early conference gauntlet.

Our projections give Texas only a 12 percent chance of going 11-1, but a 75 percent chance of being 9-3 or better. --Brian Fremeau
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LonghornFan · May 22, 2012

smh.

Someone's gonna get da boot.

peleincubus · Jun 6, 2012

UT commit WR from sealy texas. DEcommitted

rockbox · Jun 6, 2012

peleincubus said: ↑

UT commit WR from sealy texas. DEcommitted
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Texas is still his number 1 choice but he wants to play basketball also.

bigtexxx · Jun 6, 2012

peleincubus said: ↑

UT commit WR from sealy texas. DEcommitted
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nobody to throw him the ball

ItsMyFault · Jun 7, 2012

I hope he re-commits. And yes, he does have someone to throw to him texxx, his name is Tyrone Swoops.

Bandwagoner · Jun 7, 2012

ItsMyFault said: ↑

I hope he re-commits. And yes, he does have someone to throw to him texxx, his name is Tyrone Swoops.
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Your argument might be more convincing if you could spell the kid's name correctly.

bigtexxx · Jun 7, 2012

ItsMyFault said: ↑

I hope he re-commits. And yes, he does have someone to throw to him texxx, his name is Tyrone Swoops.
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I thought Swoops (sp?) was a scrambler

ItsMyFault · Jun 7, 2012

CaseyH said: ↑

Your argument might be more convincing if you could spell the kid's name correctly.
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Meh, doesn't really matter. I'll get to know his name better when he takes the field.

bigtexxx said: ↑

I thought Swoops (sp?) was a scrambler
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He can still throw. He's also close with Seals-Jones so that also helps.

oomp · Aug 2, 2012

RT @KornblueKicking: It's now official. Penn State K/P Anthony Fera will become a Longhorn. He decided last night but papers just signed minutes ago.

J.R. · Sep 12, 2012

Wrong thread?: Texas *reportedly* no longer recruiting RSJ.

peleincubus · Sep 13, 2012

J.R. said: ↑

Wrong thread?: Texas *reportedly* no longer recruiting RSJ.
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that sucks.

ItsMyFault · Sep 13, 2012

peleincubus said: ↑

that sucks.
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He's fallen off plus apparently he dislocated his knee.

http://www.sbnation.com/college-foo...plans-texas-longhorns-lsu-tigers-texas-aggies

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[sigh] Longhorn Offseason Thread

SuperBeeKay Member

SuperBeeKay Member

alexcapone Contributing Member

Ziggy QUEEN ANON

MourningWood Contributing Member

E_Saiyan Member

E_Saiyan Member

LonghornFan Contributing Member

peleincubus Member

rockbox Around before clutchcity.com

bigtexxx Contributing Member

ItsMyFault Contributing Member

Bandwagoner Contributing Member

bigtexxx Contributing Member

ItsMyFault Contributing Member

oomp Contributing Member

J.R. Member

peleincubus Member

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