How good will Jeremy Lin be?

Spiegel · Jul 16, 2012

17 Pts 8 assis 4 boa

TheRealist137 · Jul 16, 2012

he'd probably be, at best, a top 11-15 PG.

34to11 · Jul 16, 2012

Wolverrines said: ↑

Where is average player?
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This.

oogie boogie said: ↑

You guys.. seriously think Lin has a small chance of being like Steve Nash? You guys have to be just trolling Sigmund and trying to get him mad.. There is no way Lin will ever be that good.

Anyways.. I'm kind of bummed that the Knicks might not match Jeremy Lin because truth be told, Lin isn't that good...

I do not think he will be even as good as Goran Dragic and Kyle Lowry who have their own troubles rising above other point guards.
It should be pretty clear to every person here that Lin isn't better than our past two points (I would even go as far as including Brooks) and probably doesn't have a higher ceiling than Dragic.

Lin is a product of NY and being thrown on the court when their two stars were out and being told, "Go ahead kid, go have fun and do what ever you want."
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And this.

As a ROCKETS fan I am forever hoping for the best but honestly I am not expecting much of Lin beyond being a solid rotation player in the long run.

Given the teams current (relative) lack of talent and experience I think it's safe to assume Lin will be given a certain degree of latitude similar to that he had during his streak in NY.
As such, he could potentially put up some deceptive numbers early on but as the team improves I expect he will eventually settle into the role of a solid rotational player.

mvpcrossxover · Jul 16, 2012

Cougar_Steve said: ↑

I want to support Sigmund, to an extent, as to why Lin is at best an average pg, thus far. His game has major flaws (turnovers, lh, defense). How will he fit with Howard or Bynum in a half court offense? There was a reason he put up the points he did in Dantoni's offense.

What has Sigmund said that is incorrect? Personally, I really like the interest that Lin will bring to Houston but he is not worth the contract that we are giving him from a basketball perspective. To this point, there are 20 PGs I would take in place of Lin.
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Who are your 20 pgs that you would take over Lin?

dexkk · Jul 16, 2012

At least his contract is only for 3 years and he's young. He'll fit in with the rest of the rockets once they trade K-mart. I'm more surprised that the Rockets were able to completely revamp their roster and go young in 1 year. It's time to sink or swim, no more floating around like the last two years.

CoolColJ · Jul 16, 2012

25% chance of being scrub/average, 25% chance of being a hall of famer or superstar, 50% chance of an all star

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/02/11/jeremy-lin-is-no-fluke/

Jeremy Lin Is No Fluke
By NATE SILVER

Even an average N.B.A. player can have a great game. Within the past two seasons, players including Jordan Crawford, Hedo Turkoglu and Goran Dragic have recorded a triple-double. The Milwaukee Bucks’ Brandon Jennings scored 55 points in a game in 2009, nearly quadrupling the 15 points per game he scored on average that season.

But what about four great games in a row — especially when they coincide with your first three N.B.A. starts?

The New York Knicks’ Jeremy Lin has scored at least 23 points in each of his last four games, including 38 on Friday night against the Lakers. He has also recorded at least seven assists in each game, and he has been efficient, shooting at least 53 percent from the field each time.

Just how common is something like this? I searched basketball-reference.com for other streaks that were in the same general ballpark: players who scored at least 20 points, had at least six assists and shot 50 percent over a period of four consecutive N.B.A. regular season games.

Since the 1985-86 season, 41 players have had such a streak in addition to Lin.

It is an extremely impressive list. All but seven of the players made at least one All-Star appearance in their careers, with about two-thirds of them selected to the All-Star team multiple times. The list includes nine Hall of Famers — and a number of other players who are sure to make it once they retire. The players on the list account for 17 of the last 28 M.V.P. awards.
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see article for chart...

The first tier consists of 11 players that I call “All-Time Greats.” These are players who were either among the 50 Greatest Players in N.B.A. History, when the league announced that list in 1996, or who have won an M.V.P. award since then. It contains pretty much who you’d think — Michael Jordan, Larry Bird, Magic Johnson. It also includes Steve Nash, a player to whom some are comparing Lin.

The next tier consists of four “Franchise Players.” This includes players like Gary Payton, the former Seattle Supersonics point guard, who fall just short of immortality (or are too young to have achieved it yet), but who were probably good enough to lead a team to a championship.

In the third tier are the “All-Stars” — players who made the All-Star team about half the time during the peak of their careers, and who could win a championship if paired with a player of similar aptitude and a strong supporting cast. Two of these players, Chris Mullin and Joe Dumars, made the Hall of Fame, but most, like former Phoenix Suns point guard Kevin Johnson, fell just short of it.

Next up is the “Above Average” group — guys who had good overall careers and who might have made an All-Star team in their best season or two. Mark Jackson, the former Knicks point guard, is typical of this group.

Only 9 of the 41 players fall below this tier. Six of them, like the former Knick Steve Francis, fall into a group of average players.

Just three of them, meanwhile — Pooh Richardson, Jay Humphries and Lionel Simmons — were mediocre N.B.A. players even at their peak.

In other words, while it is possible that Lin will turn out to be the next Pooh Richardson, the odds are in favor of a more impressive outcome.

Basketball is much less luck-driven than a sport like baseball, especially for a point guard, who handles so many of the team’s possessions. A league-average point guard might be able to muster one streak like Lin’s over the course of his career. But it is more the hallmark of a player with at least borderline All-Star talent, if not more than that.

There are, however, two other factors pertinent to Jeremy Lin, one of which speaks favorably for him and the other less so.

The unfavorable factor is that absolutely nobody saw this coming. Lin was cut during the pre-season by the Golden State Warriors, and then again by the Houston Rockets, one of the more statistically savvy teams in the league. Lin had been undrafted out of college — that college was Harvard, by the way, where Lin had a G.P.A. of 3.1 and majored in economics.

While it must be acknowledged that talent evaluation is an imperfect science in sports — and that there may be some bias against an Asian-American from Harvard who does not fit the mold of a typical N.B.A. point guard — that is nevertheless a reason to expect some reversion to the mean. That doesn’t mean Lin is going to be the next Lionel Simmons, but it would weigh against a prediction that he will turn into a superstar.

On the other hand, these past four games aren’t just any four, picked out at random from a long career. They represent the first four times that Lin had ever played more than 24 minutes in an N.B.A. game and his first three career starts. In fact, the 89 points Lin scored in his first three starts is the most by an N.B.A. player since the league merged with the A.B.A. in 1976.

And Lin has scored his points in impressive fashion, slashing and driving to the basket and creating easy shots for himself. Were he just a streak shooter who had knocked down a bunch of 3-pointers, perhaps there would be more reason to be skeptical.

Lin has also received the endorsement of one of the players on the All-Time Greats list, Magic Johnson, who compared him to two of the others, John Stockton and Steve Nash, on ESPN’s telecast last night.

So perhaps the list of 41 players above is a roughly appropriate guide to Lin’s possible futures. That would imply that there was about a one-in-four chance that Lin really was going to be a superstar, and about a one-in-four chance that he was an average (or worse) player on an incredible hot streak. That would leave a 50 percent chance that he was somewhere in the middle — a clearly above-average player who would make several All-Star teams in his career.

It’s also worth watching to see whether Lin can extend the streak tonight against Minnesota. Only 17 of the 41 players had streaks that lasted for longer than four games, with many of the more marginal players dropping off the list.

And only five players had such a streak that lasted for six games or longer. Four of them are Michael Jordan, Charles Barkley, Isiah Thomas and Dwyane Wade. The other was less illustrious: Lafayette “Fat” Lever.
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http://hoopsanalyst.com/blog/?p=487

Any team looking to find a starting PG in the 2010 NBA draft had best win the lottery and get the top pick. A year after the legendary PG draft of 2009, the pickings for playmakers are going to be thin. That doesn’t mean there won’t be a player or two who surprise the experts though.

The best candidate to pull off such a surprise might be Harvard’s Jeremy Lin. The reason is two numbers Lin posted, 2-point FG pct and RSB40. Lin was at .598 and 9.7. This is impressive on both counts. These numbers show NBA athleticism better than any other, because a high score in both shows dominance at the college level on both ends of the court. Here is a list of recent college PGs who topped .540 and 9.0:

chart

Bobby Dixon, you ask? He played at Troy from 2003-06. Dixon was listed at 5’10” and 160 his senior year and I’m guessing he was deemed too small. He’s played in France and Italy going on his 4th year now and seems to be getting plenty of PT. I don’t think I need to say too much to sell the rest of the group.

But Lin put up his numbers in the Ivy League, while most of the players on the list played in major conferences. This is a big deal. For players from a small conference the jump to the NBA is a lot tougher. They don’t get the exposure, unless their team makes the tournament. They need to be that much better statistically to stand out. Lin made his mark in the preseason when he averaged 23.3 PPG while shooting 63% in a 3-game stretch against UConn, BC and Georgetown. Typically players from small colleges see their numbers dip, sometimes drastically, when stepping up in competition. That Lin was able to not only be competitive, but excel in these situations is impressive. What I like to do with small college players is compare their numbers to those of successful small college players from the past. Here’s a list of college PGs who have successfully made the jump from small conferences to the NBA and their senior year stats:

chart

This isn’t a wildly impressive group. Lin tops the group in 2-point pct, scored over 20 P40 and brings the high RSB40. That’s all good and bodes well for Lin’s NBA future. The bad news is he’s a decent, but not great passer, making it questionable whether he can handle the point. His 1.4 A/TO is the lowest total of this group with the exception of Hunter, who was more of a combo guard anyway. His 5.5 A40 is also on the low side. I like PG prospects to be over 6.0, but this isn’t completely necessary. There were several good NBA PGs who posted an A40 lower than Lin’s 5.5, the best being Sam Cassell and Mark Price. It is also important to point out that Terry Porter, who is by far the most successful player on this list, posted a lower A40 than Lin. So while it would be better for Lin to post a higher frequency of assists, and points for that matter, they’re not so low that I would dismiss his chances of playing PG at the next level.

With seniors who have been somewhat invisible until their final seasons, I think it is a good idea to look at the entire college career. This gives us an idea of whether the senior season is more of an aberration than a progression.

chart

Lin’s progression looks fairly normal. The .598 might be a tad high, but even at the .545 he was at his junior year he’s still a pretty strong prospect. He’s scored 20+ for consecutive seasons and has 3 seasons over 9.0 RSB40. He has shot 37% on threes the past couple of seasons, so he has shown enough there. The important thing is his senior year doesn’t look fluky or something that was the result of a hot streak.

I like Jeremy Lin as a PG prospect, but he isn’t without flaws and concerns. He isn’t a great passer yet and he didn’t score as frequently as a prospect from a small college should. Both numbers are in the grey area though. They’re lower than I’d like them to be, but not low enough that I’d say Jeremy Lin was doomed as a prospect. That being noted, he does bring that combination of a high 2-point pct. and RSB40, which has been a very, very good thing for aspiring NBA PGs to have on their college report card in past years. This is a weak year for both PGs and combo guards. After John Wall there are no sure things. Jeremy Lin might be the #2 PG available in this draft. He looks to me like a sleeper in the mold of George Hill. He appears to have the skills to become at least a usable combo guard. If he can get the passing thing down and handle the point, Jeremy Lin is a good enough player to start in the NBA and possibly star.

Just a quick note here. I’m going to do the draft preview a little differently this year. Rather than doing long posts covering all the players at each position, I’m going to analyze similar players together. This will mean more posts than usual, but they’ll be shorter. I thought Jeremy Lin would be a good guy to start with, because he’s the one player I probably differ on with the rest of the draft pundits by the biggest margin. Hopefully this new way of doing things works well.
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koopa · Jul 16, 2012

Nice to point out his weaknesses for everyone to see right when the rockets are signing him to a big contract.

eddiewinslow · Jul 16, 2012

mvpcrossxover said: ↑

Who are your 20 pgs that you would take over Lin?
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Nash,Rose,Paul,dwill,john wall,Lawson,Westbrook,Parker,Rubio,Teague, curry,brandon Jennings,Rondo,Conley,Lowry,dragic,Holliday,kyrie Irving,Brandon knight,Damian there ya go 20 I'd rather have

kidcave9 · Jul 16, 2012

He ll be Lintastic

ThatBoyNick · Jul 16, 2012

Who wants to bet that he didn't write that and found it on some other forum??? I'll bet all the cash in my pocket. Lol

Sigmund · Jul 16, 2012

ThatBoyNick said: ↑

Who wants to bet that he didn't write that and found it on some other forum??? I'll bet all the cash in my pocket. Lol
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Yes, I did write that myself. But obviously I am not the only know who thinks Lin is nothing special along with NBA Hall of fame coach Larry Brown.

Larry Brown:"I think the kid was the great. The system helped him be really great," Brown said of Lin. "It's a wonderful story. But I look at him as a backup in the NBA. I may be wrong, I really want him to be successful but I think if you overpay him for the interest that he created that's not the best thing."

Jeremy Lin had a nice run last season before NBA teams keyed in on him and he suffered a knee injury. But he will never be an elite point guard, and to pay him $14.8 million in a season is saying that you believe he will be.

The Houston Rockets signed Lin to a back-loaded, three-year, $25 million contract that will pay him just under $15 million in the third year.

That total would suggest he is in the same category as Derrick Rose, Chris Paul and Deron Williams—or just one notch below these players.

That simply isn't true.

Lin is just a decent shooter (32 percent from three-point range in January and February), he isn't blessed with a ton of athleticism, he's been turnover prone (4.4 turnovers per game through January and February) and he will always struggle to defend the quicker players at his position.

Lin failed to show that he could make an impact in the NBA before he was given an opportunity under Mike D'Antoni. Lin had 11 games with 20 or more points and six games with 10 or more assists with D'Antoni.

Once D'Antoni resigned on March 14, Lin didn't have another 20-point game, and had only one 10-assist performance in the last seven games he played last season.

Is Lin still developing?

Sure he is, but every player has a ceiling. That ceiling is dictated by their athleticism, size, situation and mental approach. Lin is a hard-worker, and he has good size at 6'3", but he needs to have a coach that is going to run a system he can excel in.

He doesn't have the type of athleticism to produce in every situation.

He had a better opportunity of running a friendly system in New York, but I don't blame him for taking the money. Most of us would if offered the contract the Rockets rolled out. But because of the exorbitant amount in the final year, the Knicks must let him walk.

Now in two years, Lin will have one of the NBA's worst contracts at $14.8 million. But it looks as though the Rockets will be the ones stuck with it.
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getbloodyred · Jul 16, 2012

Sigmund said: ↑

Yes. He didn't play in playoffs, because he was afraid of Mario Chalmers. I guess he realized he can't afford another 1-11 FG, 8 TO performance.

Select team? A lot of full court press is going on there. His dribble is too high making it easy for opponents to strip the ball away. Especially, if that opponent is named Russell Westbrook with 6'8 wingspan and...handchecking is allowed.
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yea being scared of Mario Chalmers. OK! he had one bad game, that would make him not want to play again. and guess what? you're being SPECULATIVE!
and i don't even understand your second point, the point is you're just being speculative about the entire situation.
speculation = not proven or made up stories in your head.

getbloodyred · Jul 16, 2012

eddiewinslow said: ↑

Nash,Rose,Paul,dwill,john wall,Lawson,Westbrook,Parker,Rubio,Teague, curry,brandon Jennings,Rondo,Conley,Lowry,dragic,Holliday,kyrie Irving,Brandon knight,Damian there ya go 20 I'd rather have
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yes maybe yes yes maybe no yes maybe no no no no no yes no no.

getbloodyred · Jul 16, 2012

getbloodyred said: ↑

yes maybe yes yes maybe no yes maybe no no no no no yes no no.
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scratch that my computer did some weird stuff where i didn't see some of the names that were there. but is Lin a top 20 pg? not really sure, i guess we'll see during the season. i have nothing wrong with taking a risk though.

SlimJim25 · Jul 16, 2012

oogie boogie said: ↑

You guys.. seriously think Lin has a small chance of being like Steve Nash? You guys have to be just trolling Sigmund and trying to get him mad.. There is no way Lin will ever be that good.

Anyways.. I'm kind of bummed that the Knicks might not match Jeremy Lin because truth be told, Lin isn't that good. To me, I think Morey thinks that Lin is a short-term plan to manage the 1 spot, and I would have to agree with Morey if he does indeed think that. I do not think Lin will be a future "true"(as in he deserves it) all-star because I do not think he will be even as good as Goran Dragic and Kyle Lowry who have their own troubles rising above other point guards. It should be pretty clear to every person here that Lin isn't better than our past two points(I would even go as far as including Brooks) and probably doesn't have a higher ceiling than Dragic. And with Lowry you already know his skill and how good he is. Lin isn't very promising, to be honest.

If the Rockets do happen to sign Jeremy Lin, I'm guessing his tenure as a Rocket will only last 3 years which is the end of his contract. Unless of course we happen to find another gem and trade Lin.

Lin is a product of NY and being thrown on the court when their two stars were out and being told, "Go ahead kid, go have fun and do what ever you want."

Of course I hope I'm severely wrong and he does end up being "the next Steve Nash" ... lmao. I hope he turns into an ok trade chip(I prefer the term trade chip rather than asset)

Lin will not be the future for this franchise, but will bring a lot of bucks to the owner's pockets.. which isn't bad because then he wouldn't mind over spending on someone actually worth the money and maybe even revamp the franchise to look nicer. Just my opinion tho..
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THIS.
My thoughts exactly.

getbloodyred · Jul 16, 2012

oogie boogie said: ↑

You guys.. seriously think Lin has a small chance of being like Steve Nash? You guys have to be just trolling Sigmund and trying to get him mad.. There is no way Lin will ever be that good.

Anyways.. I'm kind of bummed that the Knicks might not match Jeremy Lin because truth be told, Lin isn't that good. To me, I think Morey thinks that Lin is a short-term plan to manage the 1 spot, and I would have to agree with Morey if he does indeed think that. I do not think Lin will be a future "true"(as in he deserves it) all-star because I do not think he will be even as good as Goran Dragic and Kyle Lowry who have their own troubles rising above other point guards. It should be pretty clear to every person here that Lin isn't better than our past two points(I would even go as far as including Brooks) and probably doesn't have a higher ceiling than Dragic. And with Lowry you already know his skill and how good he is. Lin isn't very promising, to be honest.

If the Rockets do happen to sign Jeremy Lin, I'm guessing his tenure as a Rocket will only last 3 years which is the end of his contract. Unless of course we happen to find another gem and trade Lin.

Lin is a product of NY and being thrown on the court when their two stars were out and being told, "Go ahead kid, go have fun and do what ever you want."

Of course I hope I'm severely wrong and he does end up being "the next Steve Nash" ... lmao. I hope he turns into an ok trade chip(I prefer the term trade chip rather than asset)

Lin will not be the future for this franchise, but will bring a lot of bucks to the owner's pockets.. which isn't bad because then he wouldn't mind over spending on someone actually worth the money and maybe even revamp the franchise to look nicer. Just my opinion tho..
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yea i can agree with you for the most part. my only problem is that Sigmund's thread is somewhat wrong and premature. i, in no way, think Lin will be the next Nash, his ceiling is averaging 20 and 7 assists, but who knows if he'll reach that ceiling. it's about taking a risk, and I think the risk is worth taking on a guy that can bring a lot of attention this franchise.
At the end of the day, he is a Rocket. i hate it when a fan base completely hates a player, their own player, for really no reason.

Burko · Jul 16, 2012

He's a back-up for whoever we get in free agency.

got em COACH · Jul 16, 2012

Lin vs wall before the linsanity. Oh yeah, he has potential

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kevC · Jul 16, 2012

6'3" 200 lbs, 23 year old 20 PER rookie PG? He's a top ten PG already. Anyone who says John Wall is better than Lin is just categorically wrong.

GATER · Jul 16, 2012

kevC said: ↑

6'3" 200 lbs, 23 year old 20 PER rookie PG? He's a top ten PG already.
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You forgot several other importantant "stats". 25 Knicks starts averaging 26.9 mpg. There's a whole lot of upside being assumed here for someone with already 4years of Ivy League ball.

And that's not even taking into account the Knicks during the time were 14-9 but with only 6 of the 14 wins being against playoff teams.

It'll be interesting if it happens because it's a 100% $Ball decision.

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