For reference there's: Real Clear Polictics predicting that the Republicans will gain 67 seats, with a range of 45-88. (link) FiveThirtyEight predicting that the Republicans will gain 53 seats, with a 95% confidence interval of 23-81. (link) Republicans need a net increase of 39 seats to take over the House.
They'll gain, but I don't think it's going to be the bloodbath everyone is predicting. It's amazing what happens when people actually get to the polls.
A better question is what will Republicans do if they take the house? Finally work with the president on issues facing America? Try and undo all that Obama got passed? Unleash endless subpoenas? Begin Impeachment precedings? It will be interesting to see
I'm not as much bothered by a Republican takeover as much as I am worried about a few particular candidates/races where completely unqualified examples of human devolution are running. Carl Paladino (Governor, NY) Linda McMahon (Senate, CT) Sharon Angle (Senate, NV) Jan Brewer (Governor, AZ) Rich Iot (House, OH) Christine O'Donnel (Senate, DE) To name a few.
This may not be true since numerous Democrats have said they won't vote for Pelosi to be speaker. It could be lower.
Can't tell you the exact number, but it will be a glorious day, and a clear message to Barack that he's failed so far.
If the Democrats keep a majority in the House, there will be a Democratic speaker, and Democrats will vote in lock-step for him/her when they come out of the caucus meetings where he/she is chosen.
I don't really know but wouldn't count out the DNC get out the vote system. I am going to vote between 31 and 40.
They have pretty much said they'll do anything to hurt Obama, start investigations, and do anything to roll back HCR. The more interesting question is what do they do if they don't quite make it.
I would rather they have their own comedy central show than in the congress giving more tax breaks to the rich and gutting social services.
I think with the level of partisanship currently going on we'll see the following: 1. Investigation of Obama with acorn and other potential scandals followed by an impeachment vote 2. Symbolic repeal of the Health care laws Other than that, nothing will get done. Basically both parties will be campaigning for 2012 and this will most likely be a lame duck session. Republicans encouraged by their gains will continue to simply oppose anything Obama tries to do in order to knock down his re-election hopes. Their gambit will be to take over the senate and presidency in 2012 so they can again cut taxes and increase the deficit. Democrats will just sit there and hope the economy turns around. Basically it was smart that they passed everything in the first 2 years because nothing will happen with deficit reduction, immigration, nor energy. China is probably having a big party. I think the Republicans will take 50-60 seats.
I'm being optimistic (and thank goodness basso didn't start this thread... I can post in it) and voted 31-40. A lot of the races are within the margin of error, depending on the polls. Also, Obama has been attacking the GOP the last day or two, since "playing nice" for months didn't seem to work out for him, or the Party.
