So, the Rockets will have about $60 mil in salary committment going into the offseason ($39.7 mil on existing players + $11 mil for Martin + $6.9 mil for Jefferies + $2.7 mil for Hill). This is before signing Scola and Lowry, the RFAs. The Luxury Tax will likely kick in at about $65-$66 mil or so. So, while there may be room to sign Lowry, the $5 mil or $6 mil left before the tax kick in is unlikely to be enough for Scola-- certainly won't be enough to retain both of them. Are we losing Scola? Are we losing someone else (Battier/Chuck/Andersen) in a offseason trade to create room before signing Scola/Lowry? Are Scola and Lowry "special" enough players for the Rockets to pay tax to retain them, assuming the deals themselves are reasonable or somewhat discounted due to the RFA status? Are we going to say "screw it" and sign both of them for a combined sum of, say, $10 or 11mil (which is reasonable market price for these guys, I think), taking team salary to, say, $71 mil and hoping to be able to get a salary dump to an under the cap team in the offseaon or in the season to get under the tax?
Nope... Trade deadline moves next season will keep him on the team and the Rox under the salary cap. I think...
Did you count Cook's 3.6 mil expiring? That will be off this summer. I thought we had enough to sign both after this trade. Does MLE count as taxable? I don't think so.
Bird Rights just mean you can sign them even if you have no cap space. You still have to pay luxury tax on the amount you exceed the tax level. That's acted like kind of a hard cap in recent times.
A lot can happen with the Jeffries and Battier contracts, plus all of these picks, in the offseason. No need to jump to conclusions now. And worse case scenario, Morey indicated in the SLAM interview that Les will pay the tax if the team is worth it. We aren't going to go into next season with Jordan Hill and Chuck Hayes as our PF's.
Next season Jefferies contract becomes an expiring contract ... I bet Morey can turn around and make something out of that! :grin:
I don't think we lose Scola. I have a hunch that Les will be willing to dip into the tax for this team, but even if he's not, I think DM would rather have Scola anchoring the PF position. He'll either trade somebody (Battier, Ariza, or Andersen) or he will decline Chuck's option to make room to bring Scola back. Another thing you need to think about is how over-saturated this off-season's free agent class is. Who is going to be prioritizing a 30-year old RFA power forward who has mostly flown under the radar throughout his NBA career when names like LeBron James, Dwayne Wade, Chris Bosh, Joe Johnson, Amare Stoudemire (and on the list goes) are floating around unsigned? After the season ends, Scola's agent is going to take one good look at the situation around the league, and advise Luis to take whatever Morey is offering him. To repeat the bottom line: I think Les will spend a little bit into the tax for this team. If he doesn't, we'll still find a way to keep Scola.
They will re-sign Lowry and Scola, then at the trade deadline in 2011 they will trade Battier or Jefferies to slide right under and not have to pay...
You really think Scola's going to net more than 6 mil? Well I would think we're definitely not picking up Chuck's option if it makes it anymore difficult to resign Scola, so that gives an extra 2.3 million to work with. Of course we also have to reserve around 1.5 mil for first round draft pick. I'm sure Morey can do some creative tinkering to make everything fit. Pretty sure he likes both Lowry and Scola, so I'd be surprised if he made this trade knowing he was going to lose both of them.
Can't the MLE be split up among players? If so, give Scola a part of this, and give Kyle his money that may/may not cut into the salary cap? or vice versa Perhaps this is a simplistic viewpoint.
