[ESPN]2009-10 Forecast: Houston Rockets

Yep. I'm not buying that the Rockets "held" the opponent to a 3% lower FT percentage over the course of 82 games through luck.

 

Maybe the fact that the Rockets play tough defense and wear the other teams players down causing them to miss more often because they are tired?

DD

 

As much as I don't like the idea of PER, Hollinger is pretty much dead on. Great analysis.

That said, I think his record prediction is optimistic. I think our offense is going to struggle for much of the early year to find its rhythm, which will cost us quite a few games. And result in us hovering around the 30 win mark by the end of the season.

Of course, this is assuming T-Mac is blowing smoke once against with regards to his health and dedication to the game. If T-Mac really is back, even at 70%, this team could easily reach 35-40 wins.

 

my forecast: IT GON RAIN (3's)

 

Some people just can't see the forest from the trees.

 

This is pretty much how I have them pegged as well unless Tmac comes back and goes crazy like in his first Rockets years.

 

I love ESPN.
- When Yao went down in 07/08 they predicted we would miss the playoffs, a few weeks later we were sitting on top of the West

- Come 08/09 and T-Mac opts for surgery the Rockets are in the top 4 of the West but those super intelligent analysts predict we will miss the playoffs again, a win closing night could of seen the Rockets 2nd and they end up 5th and make it to the 2nd round.

- After most of their 'experts' predict a sweep or Lakers in 5-6 games the Rockets come out and win in LA, when the big man goes down with the Rockets down 1-2 the mighty basketball knowledge of ESPN comments that the series is done and dusted, Lakers will win the next two games easily....it goes to 7.

a. You would think they would of smartened up a bit by now in regards to the Rockets and injuries.

b. They keep getting it wrong so I am happy for them to say we will fail.

c. It's ESPN, who really gives a crap what they say? Remember ESPN is about three things when it comes to basketball..... Lebron James, Kobe Bryant and Dwight Howard, we have none of them.

 

lol, I remembered that Holinger predicted the Jazz will be the 1st by the end of 08-09 season, but they end up 8th.
Predictions often turn out wrong.

 

wow I'm surprised at the optimism from a lot of BBS posters. 45 wins and a playoff seed? I'll be glad if we crack 30 wins.

 

You obviously have never read Hollinger. Here's an article from him in 2008.

<blockquote>
Yao's injury shouldn't cripple Rockets' playoff hopes

By John Hollinger
ESPN Insider

Obviously, the loss of Yao Ming for the season is terrible news for the Houston Rockets, not to mention a slap to the egos of those of us who picked them to win the title.

But the more immediate question today is: How will they fare without Yao? Can they hang on and still make the playoffs?

The first instinct is to say no. It's a nine-team battle for the West's eight playoff spots, and with the conference being such a powerhouse it seems as though Houston is the obvious team to fall out of the race.

But when we go through the math of the Rockets' schedule, a different conclusion emerges.

Houston is 36-20 this season, with 26 games left to play. According to the Hollinger playoff odds, it will take 48 wins to make it to the postseason in the Western Conference.

Thus, the Rockets need to go only 12-14 the rest of the way to have a good shot at qualifying for the playoffs. Given that they've been roughly a .500 team over the years when Yao doesn't play (28-34, to be exact) and that his teammates were playing extremely well at the time of the injury, 12-14 doesn't seem that daunting a task.

That's especially true when you consider the remaining cupcakes on their slate. The Rockets have nine home games left against losing teams (Washington, Memphis, Indiana, New Jersey, Charlotte, Sacramento, Minnesota, Seattle and the Clippers). At a minimum, one would think they'll take seven of these.

A few of the road games don't seem so daunting either: Seattle, the Clippers, Sacramento and Atlanta, for instance. Suppose they split those four.

That's 9-4 out of those 13 games -- easily attainable provided T-Mac doesn't join Yao on the sidelines. If so, that means Houston needs to go only 3-12 in the other 15 games, five of which are at home.

If they really want to help their odds, three of those games will be particularly meaningful. Houston still plays Golden State once and Denver twice. Wins in those games would help them gain ground overall, push down their competitors and perhaps win an extra tiebreaker or two. As of now, the Rockets are 1-1 against Denver, with two matchups to go -- and 1-2 versus Golden State, with one game to go.

So, considering their schedule, I suspect they'll pull out a No. 7 or No. 8 seed.

Furthermore, the Rockets have quality depth, unlike in some previous seasons.

To fill in for Yao, there's Dikembe Mutombo, who fared well while Yao was out a year ago. Additionally, many of Yao's minutes will go to rookie Carl Landry who, unbelievably, leads the team in PER -- he averages 19.1 points and 12.8 rebounds per 40 minutes and is shooting 61.6 percent. I'm not saying he'll keep up such a prolific rate, but clearly he's not chopped liver.

We should see Houston play small more often, with Shane Battier as a power forward and Landry, Luis Scola or Chuck Hayes as a center. Last week's trade for Bobby Jackson lets the Rockets do this more effectively because they have an additional creator in the backcourt.

One way or another, I think they'll manage. So if you're a Denver or Golden State fan and think this injury has brought you a reprieve from the lottery, you might want to double-check that assumption. With a three-game lead and less than two months to play, Houston should be a playoff team, even without Yao.</blockquote>

 

If you have read any of my team assessments and predictions over the summer you know I have said the same things. I think the current configuration of players is going to have a hard time putting together 80-90 points a game. This might be a fun team to watch because of their hustle, but many of you are going to be disappointed. TMac's return does not excite me at all. Bottomline, more talent and size needed.

 

My 2 cents!

I think the assessment is pretty much on point and accurate... I think that McGrady could be ready to start the seaon IF we needed him but that they are only looking to raise his value before the trade deadline and to get a better idea of where he is physically and mentally. I think this will relly be a true Adelman Team.

 

Yeah, the "obvious difference" being that the series went to 7 games. There is no way that series went to 7 games with Yao. He can't guard the quicker big men like Gasol. If anything, his defense has been The Rockets biggest weakness in the playoffs. Utah with Boozer is a prime example.

If it's going to be "more of the same," then The Rockets are in great shape. More of the same would be Chuck shutting down the Gasol's, Duncan's, and Garnett's and giving the team a better chance to win games.

 

They are just being fans. 30 wins

 

37? 37?
i need a drink

 

Good Point---GAKATRON

I like that

UPDATE:Mcgrady will be held out Until at least Nov. 23 barring an MRI

Source: http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/news/story?id=4514769

 

Am I the only one who thinks a team with Scola and Battier will have a better than .500 record??

I mean seriously... this is the team, that w/o Andersen, Taylor, Budinger, and Ariza--and with a wild-shooting Artest, took the Lakers to 2-2 in the playoffs..

mind you, a healthy lakers team..

I mean come one.. you guys overstated the last couple of teams, and you are now understating this year's team.

I honestly believe that 09-10 team will surprise the hell out of a lot of ppl. We are experienced, tough, and extremely confident. Regular season games will be hard to win from this Rockets.. especially b/c Refs will not be able to target Yao with BS calls. Plus Andersen will be able to draw defenses away from the basket and allow players like Brooks, Scola, Ariza, Taylor, et. all to drive at will. Whoops, forgot Lowry

 

This team will win more than 50% of the ball games without T-Mac and Yao, maybe more than last year.

 

This team is gonna stun the nation once agian. The last two seasons has been an improvement and this one will be even better. I like yao but he has a big weekness and that's his legs. It wouldn't suprise me if the laker's gameplan last season was to knee him and injure him on purpose, after all it is a dirty game. With T-mac back, ariza and scola, brooks will become a star this season now that he can control his own destiny and not feel presured to find yao first. Unpredictable team's are the most dangerous and hardest to defend against in my opinion.

 

No, you aren't the only one, but I'm a little worried about Brooks. Clutch twittered that his shot's been way off lately. AB needs to find his shot and fast, or we won't have a shot at a winning record!