What scares me about Yao Ming: 1. We draft him and he turns into the next Shawn Bradley. 2. We don’t draft him and he turns into the next Kareem Abdul-Jabar. I think about both scenarios a lot and I have no stake in the number 1 pick outside of my own emotional involvement with the team as a fan. Imagine how Rudy T and CD sleep at night? Everyone on this board has read thread after thread about how Rudy T and CD blew the draft in 98 by passing on Rashard Lewis. That has got to be the most over used topic on this BBS. No one cares that not one single team in the NBA thought Rashard was worth a #1 pick. No one cares that with our number two pick Rudy T and CD had a choice between Rashard and Cat and the one they picked is clearly the better player. No one wants to here about how the Micheal Dickerson pick in that same draft was not only solid but it was later parleyed into the Steve Francis acquisition the following season. No one cares to discuss the success stories of the 98 draft. All most posters on the BBS care to discuss is the fact that we misjudged the talent of Rashard Lewis. Which brings me back to the topic of Yao Ming. I suppose that if we draft Yao and he comes in and makes an immediate positive impact that all will be well with the Rudy bashers. But the likely scenario is that even if Yao turns into a monster pick he will not dominate this year. If we draft and keep Yao then I can already see some of the threads that will be popping up by January: 1. Rudy blows draft again by passing on Caron Butler. 2. Drew Gooden for MVP, Yao sucks! Rudy and CD need to be fired! 3. We could have had Odom and Borchardt but instead we have a 7’5” stiff! Rudy blows another draft What if we trade the number 1 pick? Some posters have already claimed that if Rudy and CD trade the number 1 pick that they will no longer be Rockets fans. BTW those people are not real Rockets fans anyway. Imagine if Rudy trades the number one pick for Odom and some other picks and we become 50 game winners for the next 10 years. If Yao turns out to be another Jabar then all we will hear is how Rudy passed on the next great center and not how Rudy did a great job rebuilding our team back into a 50 win team. I for one trust Rudy and CD on draft day.The highest pick that they have had until this year has been the 9th pick in the draft and yet they have come away with Cat, Francis, Kenny Thomas and Eddie Griffin in the last four drafts. I think that is an excellent record. Rudy T and CD have earned the right to take a high risk, high reward type of player like Yao if they fill that is what the team needs or to go the safer rout and trade the pick for a proven vet and more picks. If Rudy decides to keep Yao and he turns into a bust but our 15th pick turns into the next great center in the form of Hilario or Stoudemire or even the next great small forward in the form of Jefferies or Nachbar will Rudy be remembered for blowing the number 1 pick or for being a genius with the #15 pick?
Great post. I agree that if we draft Ming and he isn't an instant sucess the bash Rudy and CD threads will start popping up next season. Yes it's a risk, and I think if we draft Ming everyone should realize that he won't be an all-star his first year. Other players who may not be better in the final analysis will probably have better rookie seasons. Even if we draft Ming and he's a total bust, I'll be sad, but I won't blame Rudy and CD because when anyone takes a risk it could pan out or it could fail. Just take the bitter with the sweet.
I think the risk is less with Ming then say...Kwame Brown last year. You know the old saying...if you are going to miss, miss tall. DaDakota
between Rashard and Cat and the one they picked is clearly the better player. Rashard was picked up 9 picks before Cuttino. Other than that its a pretty solid post. I think Rudy is more at risk if he picks Yao instead of trading the pick away, but that's just my opinion. Might not be fact. I just think the odds are against Yao. Its so much easier to fail by picking him then trading the pick away.
Thinks for the correction. I agree with you about the risk for Yao, it is much higher. The upside to that of course is that the reward is also much higher if the pick pays off.
I think the reward could be good provided Ming shows that he wants to get better and is willing to adapt to the much more physical game.His hatred of lifting weights and lack of upper body development is a bad sign which might result in him not being picked by the Rockets.
Good post, crash. IMHO, unless 1) another team puts the deal of the century in front of you or 2) by virtue of having advanced dealings with China, you have concluded that the negotiation process is too difficult you have to take Yao Ming. I am probably sounding like a broken record, but the most likely statistical probability is that Yao = Smits. With Shaq wearing down and no other big man on the horizon, a 2002 version of Smits is enough to get to the NBA Finals soon. Just not this coming season....or do I say this coMING season?
