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Electoral Vote Predictions

Discussion in 'BBS Hangout: Debate & Discussion' started by CBrownFanClub, Nov 3, 2008.

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  1. CBrownFanClub

    CBrownFanClub Member

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    I know there are a lot of polls and prediction threads, I am hoping to get a very quick, non-contentious one started with people's electoral vote and popular vote predictions. I am going with:

    Electoral:
    Obama: 326
    McCain: 212

    Popular:
    Obama (+4%)
    ​

    ABC news has a good calculator (http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/Vote2008/), as do many sites.

    I would love to see Obama do better - i think the absolute Barackiest landslide would be O: 375 M: 163, + 7% popular, but I think that's if everything goes his way.
     
    #1 CBrownFanClub, Nov 3, 2008
  2. Batman Jones

    Batman Jones Member

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    375 (which is my optimistic prediction here - I think 364 is slightly more likely) doesn't represent everything going his way.

    375 gives him all swing states besides GA, AZ, MT and ND. He has a chance in each of those states.

    The "Barackiest" landslide would include all the above and give him a total of 406.
     
    #2 Batman Jones, Nov 3, 2008
  3. VesceySux

    VesceySux World Champion Lurker

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    Exactly my prediction, too.
     
    #3 VesceySux, Nov 3, 2008
  4. CBrownFanClub

    CBrownFanClub Member

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    You're right, but I am not putting much hope on the those four, i think they're out of reach. I did calls to MT and OH this weekend at a frigging presposterously well organized phone bank in NoCal for about 7 hours, and I think MT is a nonstarter (If he happens to win MT by three votes, you're welcome.). I know it is not a representative sample, but in my anecdotal experience, the vibe was not encouraging. I'd go crazy if he won 375, I would love to see it. Also totally anecdotal, but Ohio seemed like a total zoo. People waiting in line five hours to vote early. They have all received a million calls, and I called people who were on their cell phones in line waiting. Mostly Barack, but the phone list was way more weighted Obama than the MT list, which was barely sorted. A little, not much.

    And you know, most of the McCain-ies were really cool on the phone. The dialogue was by and large respectful, which was really nice to see. Considering I was calling them on a Saturday, most everyone was polite and respectful.
     
    #4 CBrownFanClub, Nov 3, 2008
  5. Smokey

    Smokey Member

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    I'm too nervous to make any predictions. I just want Barack to win.
     
    #5 Smokey, Nov 3, 2008
  6. Roxfan73

    Roxfan73 Rookie

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    Obama 393
    McCain 145

    Popular - Obama +9%
     
    #6 Roxfan73, Nov 3, 2008
  7. weslinder

    weslinder Member

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    265 Obama to 252 McCain, with Pennsylvania an exact tie.
     
    #7 weslinder, Nov 3, 2008
  8. JumpMan

    JumpMan Member

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    Same here, like the Rockets going through a season without injuries, I can't even begin to imagine it.
     
    #8 JumpMan, Nov 3, 2008
  9. Cannonball

    Cannonball Member

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    338-200 Obama
    Obama +6
     
    #9 Cannonball, Nov 3, 2008
  10. B-Bob

    B-Bob "94-year-old self-described dreamer"

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    306-232, Obama wins.

    McCain squeaks out Indiana, Ohio, Missouri, and Florida, but loses Pennsylvania, Virginia, North Carolina, Colorado & Nevada
     
    #10 B-Bob, Nov 3, 2008
  11. Batman Jones

    Batman Jones Member

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    ^ That's my low end prediction. I expect it to be somewhere between 306 - 406. I'm predicting 375 here and I predicted 390 (adding GA) on dailykos, but my more rational guess is 364.
     
    #11 Batman Jones, Nov 3, 2008
  12. Batman Jones

    Batman Jones Member

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    p.s. to CBFC:

    1. Good on you for volunteering.
    2. You're probably right about MT, but Ron Paul could shake things up there.
     
    #12 Batman Jones, Nov 3, 2008
  13. basso

    basso Member
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    McCain wins EV somewhere between 273 and 294.

    Obama wins PV by a couple million votes.
     
    #13 basso, Nov 3, 2008
  14. Storm Surge

    Storm Surge Rookie

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    #14 Storm Surge, Nov 3, 2008
  15. fmullegun

    fmullegun Contributing Member

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    3054-1325
     
    #15 fmullegun, Nov 3, 2008
  16. GuerillaBlack

    GuerillaBlack Member

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    My prediction:

    [​IMG]

    Obama: 367
    McCain: 171
     
    #16 GuerillaBlack, Nov 3, 2008
  17. ClutchCityReturns

    ClutchCityReturns Member

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    Does not compute...
     
    #17 ClutchCityReturns, Nov 3, 2008
  18. flipmode

    flipmode Member

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    321 blue team - 217 red team
     
    #18 flipmode, Nov 3, 2008
  19. CometsWin

    CometsWin Breaker Breaker One Nine

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    Sticking with my original...

    Obama 306
    McCain 232

    Obama takes PA, VA, OH, CO, and NM
    McCain takes NV, FL, MO, GA
     
    #19 CometsWin, Nov 3, 2008
  20. Harrisment

    Harrisment Member

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    Obama: 317
    McCain: 221

    Book it!
     
    #20 Harrisment, Nov 3, 2008
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