[BasketballProspectus] The Artest Trade

You are wrong. In all 3 of the championships Manu has won with the Spurs he has either came off the bench exclusively(06/07, 02/03) or at least half the time(04/05). The only time he was a full time starter was in 05/06, when they lost to the Mavs.

First off, Posey is a poor man's Battier. I don't care how many times you bring up the ONE year he started in front of Battier, thats a fact. Like someone said, the very next year Mike Miller came off the bench for Battier. Does that mean Battier is better than Miller? Not necessarily. It was just a product of the 10 man rotation Hubie ran at the time. Secondly, the reason why Boston started their Big 3 and why we may not has more to do with fit. How Ray Allen fits with Boston and how Ron Artest fits with us. Which I will get into later.

I completely agree. Which is why I think we should start the starting lineup that is currently UNDEFEATED in the NBA. Thats right, with Scola at power forward and the rest of our starters healthy, the Houston Rockets are 12-0 and with an average margin of victory of plus 10+. Blowing teams out.

Benching Battier and playing him for 13-18 mins a game is rediculous, IMO, on both counts.

1. 13-18 mins. If you are going to pay someone $7+ mil a year to come off the bench for 13-18 mins, thats dead weight. We might as well trade him for scraps and expirings. It would be a waste to give him away for free, but also a waste(of money and of his talent) to play him for 13-18 mins. Solution? Play him the 25 mins he deserves, and is paid to play. How?

Rafer Alston 30 Brooks 15 Barry 3
Tracy Mcgrady 35 Brent Barry 13
Shane Battier 25 Ron Artest 23
Luis Scola 20 Carl Landry 20 Ron Artest 8
Yao Ming 32 Luis Scola 10 Deke 6

Mcgrady 35
Yao 32
Artest 31
Scola 30
Alston 30
Battier 25
Landry 20
Barry 16
Brooks 15

Theres your 9 man rotation with Deke playing spot mins. If SF can play, he takes Brooks' spot. Its not about your top 5 players playing together, as long as they all play plenty, and efficiently. As you can see, Artest plays more than Battier in my rotation, even though Battier starts.

2. Benching Battier. The reason why I think Battier should start has everything to do with fit and utility. Battiers game is best utilized with Tmac and Yao in the lineup. He stays out of their way, spots up for 3s, and lets Tmac take a break on D while he locks up the opposing teams best player. To tell him to do that off the bench would be missusing him, since a) the opposing teams best player is likely on the bench b) he won't have both Tmac and Yao to create for him.

At the same time, to start Artest and have him stay out of their way and spot up for 3s would be missusing him as well. If we utilize him correctly, as a mismatch on offense, that means taking away shots from Tmac and Yao.

To most efficiently utilize both players, Shane should play the majority of his minutes with Tmac and Yao, meaning Artest comes off the bench.

Now let us examine the Spurs and Celtics Big 3s.

The reason the Celtics start their big 3 is because Ray Allen is a spot up shooter. That is how he is best utilized. There are enough shots for Peirce and KG to create and have Allen waiting in the wings to pick apart the defense.

The reason Manu comes off the bench is because he is a creator, not a spot up shooter like Finley, who starts in front of him. Parker needs the ball in his hands to be effective, same goes for Manu. That means with both on the court, one will be ineffective. The difference in Boston is Allen does not need the ball to be effective, he just spots up.

In our case, we are much more similar with the Spurs. Tmac and Artest are both "ball stoppers", they need the ball to be effective. This is why it makes sense not to start them together. Instead, for best efficiency, start a spot up shooter like Finley, Allen, Battier.

 

Agree with the thrust of your post (maximizing the utility of the Rockets players by Adelman), but I will still be surprised if Battier is starting in the second half of the season. While most of Shane's career has seen him starting games, he has come off the bench more than Artest has. During the 40 games Ron played for Adelman, he started all 40 of them. So there's a history to look at, with Artest starting 507 0f 535 career games, compared to Shane's 439 of 538.

If we keep Battier (looks like we will, imo, unless he gets moved at the deadline), I agree with HP that he'll be getting significant minutes. As a starter, with Artest as 6th man? I'm not as convinced of that. It'll be fun to see it played out. However it plays out, I'm confident that Coach A will use them in whatever fashion wins the most games. I just think that will see us starting Ron over Shane, at least after the break.

 

I would be shocked if Artest did not start. That is not how Adelman works. His ability to score might mean it makes more sense in general to have him be a 6th man, but that is not going to happen.

There will be times when the first team is struggling to score and Artest will try to take over unnecessarily. There will be times when the first team is struggling to score and Artest will take over and carry them. That's a big reason he's here.

I'm sure Battier will get his minutes, but it's doubtful they will be at the start of the game and it really depends on which 8-9 guys make up the main rotation.

 

I think most will agree that Battier will get his minutes. Its just that IMO his minutes and utility are maximized when played together with Tmac and Yao, while having the luxury of bring Artest of the bench to dominate. With that said, I will be completely fine with whatever Adelman decides. In the end, this is a good problem to have.

 

First, let me say nice well thought out post. Although I don't agree with all of your analogies, I do agree with some of them and will point that out below. Too bad more people don't get all emotional and just make a nice post response like you did to support their points of view...but oh well..the world isn't perfect so why would we expect a forum to be?

From NBA.com...in 02/03, Manu was a rookie and played in 69 games while starting only 5 of those and averaging 20.7 mpg.

In 04/05, Manu started 74 games and played in 74 games while averaging 29.6 mpg.

In 06/07, Manu started 36 games and played in 75 games while averaging 27.5 mpg.

James Posey's shooting percentage for 07/08 was 41.8% while shooting 38.0% from the 3pt line. Career wise he shoots 41.6% and 35.1% from 3 pt land.

Shane Battier's shooting percentage for 07/08 was 42.8% while shooting 37.7% from the 3 pt line. Career wise he shoots 45.0% and 38.9% from 3 pt land.

So as of last year, I wouldn't consider Posey a poor man's Battier. His defense was considered stellar in the playoffs to win a Championship. Shane hasn't ever been out of the first round yet. Posey has TWO rings on two different teams as a significant role player off the bench.

Like you said, I will discuss the rest below...cause comparing Memphis to the Rockets as an analysis for how to operate a championship team, makes no sense to me.

That's a great stat! I am not surprised either. But it is still ONLY 12 games. It has no reflection on how much better the team starting Artest over Battier can be. Maybe our average margin of victory will be 15 or even 20 with Artest starting in place of Battier.

I can name a whole list of NBA players on teams that rarely got off the bench last year that made more than $7+ mil. So that doesn't make the point. On a championship team, you can very well have a veteran making that much that is coming off the bench for spot minutes and insurance, that's what you are paying them that much for, there veteranship to be able to do that more effectively than someone who isn't a veteran like them.

So I don't think it is a waste, and I have already said that I don't think we should trade him...not enough value in return, imho.

One of the best scenarios that I have seen of playing time, other than liking my own better. Rick could very well see things your way, and we won't know until the season starts and we play some games. But here is what I disagree with on your layout:

1) Artest will probably play more minutes than Tmac or Yao because he is less injury prone, more durable and needs less rest. So I see his minutes being more than 35 because he will be the best defensive player on the team, and much better offensively than Shane, our second best wing defender.

2) If Scola is averaging 10 minutes per game at center for a whole year for us, we are very weak at that position. He is NOT a back up center. So Deke or Dorsey will need to get those 10 minutes or less, unless we bring in another back up center. This means that more minutes will need to go back to Scola at his natural position of PF, taking away minutes at the position that role back to Battier eventually. I don't know why we always want to play people out of position. Scola played center last year mostly because we had no choice. He wasn't even starting for half the year. I doubt that Rick plans for him to be our back up center...but according to you and others I could be wrong.

3) Actually I think are you 100% on with the min at SG between Tmac and Barry.

4) Artest will spend all of his minutes on our team at the wing, barring foul trouble or injury...so you will need to add those 8 minutes you gave him at PF back to his SF or SG positions. He may play PF in a particular game or two because of a certain match up or the above mentioned, but it will not be enough to have an avergage of minutes at that position of more even 2 minutes over an 82 games season. That's what I believe. With Scola getting more minutes at PF and not playing C...that decreases Landry's minutes until they are taken away from Artest, but balances back out with Artest getting his minutes at the wings.

5) Deke, Dorsey or another signed back-up center will get those extra minutes at C that Yao doesn't use, assuming we keep Yao's minutes down to 32 this year, which we never have....and therefore again there will be no minutes for Artest at PF, thus again taking minutes away from Battier at SF.

Nevertheless, I can respect your thoughful predictions about mpg.

In your rotations, you give Artest only 1 minute better than Battier...you actually believe that Artest is only 1 mpg better than Battier? I don't, I think he is much more better than that over Battier. I guess we will see.

It is not about best utilizing Battier to me. It is about best utilizing your WHOLE team, and in this particular case at SF, utilizing a much better player in Artest over the concerns of a less talented player in Battier. They play the same position. Neither is gonna take minutes away from Tmac, our other wing. We shouldn't structure our team to help Battier in his weaknesses just to get him "enough" minutes. He will just have to be more productive in less minutes against lesser competition of second unit players. That's his value now. If he can't be more productive against second units, then is it really worth making accomodations for him in the starting lineup?

Starting Artest means that Tmac doesn't have to play point forward and do all the work. Rick wants to run a motion offense anyway, not the offense they ran most of the year last year. Artest learned some of that when he played for him already. Artest on the move with Tmac handling the ball is waaaaaaaaayyyyyyyyyyy better than Shane spotting up while Tmac tries to beat a double team, imho. With Artest in, Tmac's assists and drives to the basket should go up. And when Artest posts his man up, since no team will have two wings that can guard both Tmac and Artest at the same time, Tmac will get wide open 3's instead of forcing up the ones he is determined to get every game no matter what. So I prefer him to shoot them wide open then over someone in his face.

To play Shane the majority of the minutes with Yao and Tmac is taking away the ease for Yao and Tmac that Artest brings. That means they have to work HARDER than they would if Artest is in the game and moving effectively. Just in case you were NOT aware, Artest shot the 3 ball at 38.0% last season. That is higher than Shane and equal to Posey! He was also a 45% fg shooter overall, higher than Posey and Shane. So even if Artest just spots up like Shane, you are more likely to get a better shot from him than Shane based off of last year's 3 pt %. Get my point?

Although I will agree that Ray Allen is a better pure shooter than Artest, Allen shot 39.8% from 3 pt land last year and 44.5% field goals overall....one slightly higher than Artest and one lower. That makes Artest better to me because he is a better post player, stronger, bigger and a much much better defender than Allen. So based on those real factual stats, I would say that Artest is more than capable of being our Ray Allen and more.

While I agree that Manu is a creator, last year he shoot 40.1% from 3 pt land and 46.0% overall. Not too shabby from 3 pt land. 38.2% 3 pt shooter career wise. Finley shot 37% from 3 pt land last year, so I doubt that he started in front of Manu because of his better ability to shoot. More likely, it was because the rest of the Spurs bench as not as strong and therefore they needed Manu off the bench. I don't think we will have that same problem. I also disagree that Manu and Parker cancel each other out as effective because the other is in the game...the both move very well without the ball. I don't have any statistics at the moment to back that up, just my observations. Already dealt with the Boston Allen deal.

If either Tmac or Artest have the ball, both are capable spot up shooters. Tmac will jack his up no matter what..and Artest shoots a good % from there, again better than Shane last year. The difference is that Artest and Tmac are not one dimensional offensive players like Shane, so that makes our offense more potent because they can spot up and hit a good % from 3 pt land, or they can catch and take you to the hole. That puts TREMENDOUS PRESSURE on opposing defenses...and puts less pressure and wear and tear on our superstars. Someone will always have it easy if they are all three in there, verses making them all work harder at different times.

So while I like your well thought out post, I still can't agree with your premise of starting Battier over Artest. I can see your logic and why you think Rick will do it, but you asked why we would put Battier on the bench at almost 7 mil, when Artest makes more than him and you only want to give him one more minute of playing time and while still coming off the bench.

 

You're spot on. Shane Battier was brought in here because he meshes perfectly with Yao and McGrady. He's the best help defender in the league, brings it every night and has been the best three point shooter on the team. There is no way in hell that Adelman is going to cut his minutes down this drastically. There's a good chance that Battier and Artest may both start, or come off the bench at various points in the season as Adelman figures out the rotation, but match-ups should dictate a lot of the minutes, too. The bottom line is that the Rockets probably need someone to take over the scoring load from the bench when Yao, or McGrady is resting and Artest is more equipped to do that. Coming down the stretch of tight games I am sure the Rockets will do everything they can to get Battier and Artest on the court at the same time.

 

Where was all this love for Battier just a few months ago or during the playoffs? I quite clearly remember reading this board and seeing so many complaints about his play. Just because I am a "rookie", I still have been reading this board for years, regularly.

Also, if you noticed in my last post, with the addition of Artest, Battier is no longer our best 3pt shooter, although he really wasn't last year either.

But I do agree with you that in close games, I think Rick will try to play both Artest and Battier together to lock down teams defensively, that will be his most value. I think that alone is why we keep him. But hopefully, he is in at the end of games because we have a 20 pt plus lead on other teams.

 

1. Thanks.
2. 04/05 Manu played half his games off the bench in the PLAYOFFS. 06/07 Manu played all his games off the bench in the PLAYOFFS.
3. Using FG% and 3PT% to judge a players ability is using faulty logic. Ricky Davis is a career 45fg% and shot 40% from 3 last year. But I don't think anyone can argue Ricky Daivs = Manu.
4. True, there are plenty of players on teams getting payed $7+mil and barely playing. They are called bad contracts and those teams would love to get rid of them. Playing Battier for 13-18min turns a productive championship caliber role player into a bad contract.
5. I am fine with Scola playing backup 5, as he did all of last year before Yao went down.
6. I don't know where you see Artest playing 1 min more than Shane in my rotation. Artest plays 31, Battier plays 25. Thats 6 minutes. I am almost positive Artest will play atleast a few minutes at PF.
7. To best utilize the whole team means efficiently using every piece, and finding a good balance between the players who fit together. It does not necessarily mean playing the top 5 together.
8. 3PT% doesn't tell the whole story. Although last year showed that Artest is a capable 3PT threat, if you watch the games, he is more comfortable shooting off the dribble instead of spotting up. Shane Battier can't shoot off the dribble at all, he is a pure spot up shooter, which fits next to Tmac and Yao, and would be useless off the bench.
9. I never said Finley was a better shooter than Manu. I said Finley is a spot up shooter, while Manu is much more. A spot up shooter fits better with their starting lineup along with 2 stars(same with Rockets). A creator fits better off the bench. Just because Manu is capable of spotting up doesn't mean he should. That would be a waste of his talents. Which is the exact point I am try to make about Artest.
10. Nothing is definite, and I will be eagerly anticipating how it all unfolds.

 

Hey man, I am doing these lengthy answers cause I really have freaking nothing better to do all day today. So just take it as two guys that would be sitting around having a drink at the pool and just shooting the crap.

You're welcome.

Good point, although I still don't think the Spurs makeup of their team is like the rockets...I think the Rockets are more like the celtics, but maybe that's just me. As good as Yao Ming is, he is no Tim Duncan.

I would not agree that using statistics is faulty logic, just that of course it doesn't tell the WHOLE picture. Remember our new guru GM is a statistician. And I didn't say that Artest = Allen...I said Artest > Allen. I also gave reasons why, even though Allen's percentages and his having a better stroke is agreed to be better than Artest's.

To me, a championship caliber role player is about 18 minutes a game, not starters minutes. Again, even though Battier may be our best overall talent at the sixth spot, I don't see him necessarily coming off the bench as the 6th man because of who he plays behind...Artest and Tmac. I see Yao getting his breather first, then Tmac...then Artest. It is very possible that when Tmac does sit down, that Barry gets the nod before Battier and Adelman leaves Battier to sub in for Artest. We will have to see what old Ricky does.

This we just flat out disagree on. Scola is a poor mans 5. We are forcing him out of position and asking him to do things that are not natural for him at that position. He is even a finesse PF. Can you see him guarding Shac, or Bynum, Oden, Chandler, or even Dampier if Yao is in early foul trouble? (just to name a few) If that is our plan for the year, we will not be in good shape.

Got it. My bad. I was mixing numbers in my mind from another post. It is 6 minutes more. I am not saying that Artest will never play PF, I just don't think it will be consistent and every game. Not if Scola is correctly left to play all his minutes at PF, for the most part, and then Landry is resigned. They should eat up ALL of the PF minutes, imho.

Usually the most efficient team is your best starting five at EACH POSITION, which may not always be your best five players. For example, Battier may be in the top five on the team if you count him as better than Rafer, but it wouldn't make sense to not start Rafer because of the position he plays. So even though Battier is one of the top five best players on the team maybe, he won't start because he is not the best at either of the three positions he can play.

I don't know a 3 pt shooter that would prefer to shoot it off the dribble verses spotting up. I know of many that can not shoot 3 pointers off the dribble and can only shoot it as a spot up shooter, but not any that can shoot the 3 pointer off the dribble but not as a spot up shooter.

If Shane is useles off the bench, then that is his own fault. Personally, I think he will thrive more offensively off the bench playing against second stringers and will even post some of them up in Adelman's offense. So I think he will be better offensively off the bench then with the starters, in which he is almost invisible for large parts of the game.

The Spurs have a PG that is a better driver to the basket than anyone on our team including Tmac, and they have a big man that is much more efficient than our Yao. So I think they have the luxury of bringing Manu off the bench if that is what they choose, although I don't agree with that either. It's just their bench is not as strong anymore. Pop trys to use it psychologically, but as soon as they start playing bad, he reinserts Manu back into the starting lineup.

I have seen Manu spot up as a three point shooter many times....and NEVER would I call that a waste of his talent. He will KILL you if you leave him alone on the three point line. And if you try to close out on him, he will go right past you and take it to the hole. This is EXACTLY what makes Artest better than Battier. Battier is not gonna take you to the hole if you close out on him, but Artest can spot up and if you leave him to double team, he will get a wide open 3, or he will take you to the hole and no one is going to stop him.

This we both agree on 100%! Nothing is definite and everything can change based on fouls, injuries and blowouts; so we both are eagerly anticipating how it all unfolds.

 

I for one... think Artest... will come off the bench alot.... and be one of our primary options... because I see... Tmac... and Yao... playing less minutes...


if not... Tmac or Yao or both will go down to injuries... because of too much wear and tear in the regular season...

and artest pouting because he isnt getting enough minutes..