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Gallup/USA Today: McCain up by 4 pts

Discussion in 'BBS Hangout: Debate & Discussion' started by basso, Jul 29, 2008.

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  1. basso

    basso Member
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    this is a poll of likely voters, unlike earlier polls this week that looked at registered voters, however, even in the broader sample Obama's lead has dropped significantly since Sunday.

    like all polls this far from election day, it's essentially worthless as a means of predicting the election. still, it's an indication that the race is much tighter than many expect.

    [rquoter]Gains for McCain in latest USA TODAY/Gallup Poll

    Warning Republican presidential candidate John McCain moved from being behind by 6 points among "likely" voters a month ago to a 4-point lead over Democrat Barack Obama among that group in the latest USA TODAY/Gallup Poll. McCain still trails slightly among the broader universe of "registered" voters. By both measures, the race is tight.

    The Friday-Sunday poll, mostly conducted as Obama was returning from his much-publicized overseas trip and released just this hour, shows McCain now ahead 49%-45% among voters that Gallup believes are most likely to go to the polls in November. In late June, he was behind among likely voters, 50%-44%.

    Among registered voters, McCain still trails Obama, but by less. He is behind by 3 percentage points in the new poll (47%-44%) vs. a 6-point disadvantage (48%-42%) in late June.

    Results based on the survey of 791 likely voters have margins of error of +/- 4 percentage points -- so McCain's lead is not outside that range. Results based on the survey of 900 registered voters also have margins of error of +/- 4 percentage points.

    Gallup editor Frank Newport tells Jill that "registered voters are much more important at the moment," because Election Day is still 100 days away, but that the likely-voter result suggests that it may be possible for McCain to energize Republicans and turn them out this fall.

    Who is a likely voter? In this poll, Frank says, that was determined by how much thought people have given to the election, how often they say they vote and whether they plan to vote in the election in November.

    He says the number of likely GOP voters is up for now, probably in part because of Obama's trip and the "laudatory" media coverage of it. "At least in the short term it may have had the side effect of energizing Republicans," he says. Also, he says that McCain's sharp words about Obama and the media last week may have energized his faithful.

    Check Pollster.com's charts to compare the USA TODAY/Gallup results to those from other pollsters. Other recent polls of likely voters had Obama slightly ahead.

    The USA TODAY/Gallup Poll is separate from Gallup's daily "tracking" poll on the presidential race, which this afternoon shows Obama ahead by 8 points among registered voters -- 48%-40%.

    Frank says that while the tracking poll indicates Obama may have gotten some gains from his overseas trip last week, any benefits may be short-lived. That tracking poll of 2,674 registered voters was also done Friday-Sunday and the margins of error on the results are +/- 2 percentage points.

    As for the difference between the tracking and USA TODAY/Gallup polls, Frank says not to read too much into it. "Statistical noise" may be largely to blame.[/rquoter]
     
    #1 basso, Jul 29, 2008
  2. bigtexxx

    bigtexxx Member

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    wait...I thought all those German teenagers were going to give Obama a big lead in the polls! :confused:
     
    #2 bigtexxx, Jul 29, 2008
  3. SamFisher

    SamFisher Member

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    It should then be a simple matter for either of you to accept the SamFisher electoral challenge - according to you, the odds are in your favor. Perhaps you don't have any faith in them?
     
    #3 SamFisher, Jul 29, 2008
  4. pgabriel

    pgabriel Educated Negro

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    who said that? :confused: :rolleyes:
     
    #4 pgabriel, Jul 29, 2008
  5. rhadamanthus

    rhadamanthus Member

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    Don't feed the trolls.
     
    #5 rhadamanthus, Jul 29, 2008
  6. RocketMan Tex

    RocketMan Tex Member

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    It's still early, and there are plenty of chances for old Walnuts to embarass himself and the Republican party. Can't wait until the debates begin. McSame is bound to say something ridiculous. It's in his DNA. :D
     
    #6 RocketMan Tex, Jul 29, 2008
  7. El_Conquistador

    El_Conquistador King of the D&D, The Legend, #1 Ranking

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    You mean American voters weren't impressed by the European vanity vacation?
     
    #7 El_Conquistador, Jul 29, 2008
  8. El_Conquistador

    El_Conquistador King of the D&D, The Legend, #1 Ranking

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    Obama got routed in every debate with Hillary. Don't think you've got a leg to stand on there, RMTex... Basically he fails in every interaction in which he's not mouthing words that someone else wrote from a teleprompter.
     
    #8 El_Conquistador, Jul 29, 2008
  9. weslinder

    weslinder Member

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    I can. Between the "heh-heh"s and bizarre nonsense from McCain, and the um, ah, um, ah stuttering and evasiveness from Obama, they'll be the worst national debates since Gore-Quayle-Stockdale.
     
    #9 weslinder, Jul 29, 2008
  10. KingCheetah

    KingCheetah Atomic Playboy

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    Wow, a 10-12 point swing for McCain overnight -- it appears there is some tomfoolery at hand.
     
    #10 KingCheetah, Jul 29, 2008
  11. krosfyah

    krosfyah Member
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    However, they were much more impressed by McCain's drug run to Columbia.
     
    #11 krosfyah, Jul 29, 2008
  12. Sweet Lou 4 2

    Sweet Lou 4 2 Member

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    I am not surprised by this. It might be statistical noise, but just goes to show the barrier Obama has to overcome to be the first black president.

    McCain is getting blown out of the water on every major issue - including foreign policy right now and he's resorting back to desperate personal attacks since his policy attacks haven't yielded results.

    At the end, we all know that the younger voters as well as minorities are less likely to actually show up and vote, and those are two of Obama's key groups. It will be a tough race.
     
    #12 Sweet Lou 4 2, Jul 29, 2008
  13. A_3PO

    A_3PO Member

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    LOL! Very good. I can't wait.
     
    #13 A_3PO, Jul 29, 2008
  14. vlaurelio

    vlaurelio Member

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    I hope these type of polls will cause the younger voters as well as minorities to actually show up and vote
     
    #14 vlaurelio, Jul 29, 2008
  15. Major

    Major Member

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    The Gallup Tracking Poll and the USA Today/Gallup Poll are two totally different polls. The Gallup Tracking Poll showed a 9 point lead on Sunday and an 8 point lead on Monday for Obama.

    The USA Today/Gallup Poll is a smaller poll and is only done every few weeks, I believe.
     
    #15 Major, Jul 29, 2008
  16. count_dough-ku

    count_dough-ku Member

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    Nah, the '92 Vice Prez debate was classic. Stockdale with the hearing aid turned off and the bizarre remarks("Who am I? Why am I here?"). Gore lecturing Quayle on abortion. Like witnessing a train wreck live.

    I am looking forward to the McCain/Obama debates, provided the moderators actually go at both candidates. I want a real discussion about the issues. Not 2 hours worth of soundbites and talking points.
     
    #16 count_dough-ku, Jul 29, 2008
  17. rhadamanthus

    rhadamanthus Member

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    Prepare to be dissapointed. Neither side will allow such an event to occur.
     
    #17 rhadamanthus, Jul 29, 2008
  18. pgabriel

    pgabriel Educated Negro

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    I thought the hillary/obama debates were very informative, unfortunately no knows what happened during the republican debates.
     
    #18 pgabriel, Jul 29, 2008
  19. CometsWin

    CometsWin Breaker Breaker One Nine

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    I think the tide turns heavily when the debates start. I can't think of a more strikingly different picture than having a bumbling old man McCain on stage with his one trick pony routine, out of touch with average Americans, out of touch with latinos, out of touch with women, with no universal health plan, by his own admission not very knowledgeable about the economy, still touting the surge without any evidence of causation between the surge and success in Iraq standing next to a young, vibrant, well spoken Obama having a full grasp of all the issues. One guy looks like the cranky old neighbor yelling at people to get off his lawn and the other guy looks like a talented professional ready to lead the nation.
     
    #19 CometsWin, Jul 29, 2008
  20. count_dough-ku

    count_dough-ku Member

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    If that's the case, then why is Obama avoiding the townhall meetings McCain has proposed?
     
    #20 count_dough-ku, Jul 29, 2008
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