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Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by jsmee2000, Feb 6, 2008.

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  1. BackNthDay

    BackNthDay Member

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    The thread poster deserves a job with Rockets working for Morey and the moneyball crew.

    However, basketball comes down to 2 things - playing D and making shots. As we've seen, in 2 losses to Philly. We didn't make shots and they did and we lost. Think about getting those 2 losses back. WOW. We're talking SW Conf Championship.
     
    #21 BackNthDay, Feb 7, 2008
  2. Hayesfan

    Hayesfan Member
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    nice work J! Very interesting to see it all lined up like that. Thanks!
     
    #22 Hayesfan, Feb 7, 2008
  3. FFz

    FFz Member

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    Are you morey? or his assistants?
     
    #23 FFz, Feb 7, 2008
  4. t_mac1

    t_mac1 Member

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    probably a fellow graduate from MIT ;)
     
    #24 t_mac1, Feb 7, 2008
  5. jsmee2000

    jsmee2000 Member

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    Someone sent me an email requesting that I add the statistics against teams with record of 0.650. Currently, that would be Boston, Detroit, Phoenix, Dallas, New Orleans, and San Antonio. The spreadsheet currently reflects these changes. I also took out Sacramento out of the spreadsheet because after yesterday's loss...well let just say that they have no chance.

    Interesting facts are that out of the 20 home games remaining for the Rockets they face only three games against the top six team in the league (that's only 15% of the games). Portland and Denver are 5/15 (33%) and 6/17 (35%), respectively. Those are some promising statistics in our favor. However, looking at the games on the road (recall that Houston has played more road games than anyone of these teams) we see that Houston is at 5/14 (36%). Furthermore, Portland and Denver are both at 3/19 (16%). So in essence we have less road games to play but they will be a little bit tougher.

    Basically, the Rockets should be a shoe in to the playoff as Portland and Denver have good chances of falling out of it. The caveat is that the Rockets have to play consistent and play team ball. Finally, they have to be able to win those games that are close. Hopefully, our momentum will push us through!
     
    #25 jsmee2000, Feb 7, 2008
  6. RocketTilIDie

    RocketTilIDie Member

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    great post man! thanks
     
    #26 RocketTilIDie, Feb 7, 2008
  7. ColomboLQ

    ColomboLQ Member

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    Thanks for posting. Looks awesome. Based on what you see, what do you think the seeds will be come playoff time in the West?
     
    #27 ColomboLQ, Feb 7, 2008
  8. jsmee2000

    jsmee2000 Member

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    In general most people confuse predictions and projections with likelihood or odds. With that being said, my simulations can provide some statistical analysis with a percentage of likelihood that a certain team will receive a particular seed. Moreover, one way to think of the results for each team as a bell curve with the top of the curve being the highest probability that a team will likely be at a certain seed. The problem is that many of these curves or bins seem to be overlapping creating a clustering of the data. This means that there is no statistical significant difference between some teams but this will get better as I obtain more data which will reduce the variance (estimation error). What I can say is that Utah, Dallas and LA Lakers are in the top cluster, Phoenix and New Orleans in the next cluster, San Antonio, and Houston in the next cluster and finally Golden State, Denver and Portland. These are results from a few days ago before Damon went to SA, Shaq to PHX and Gasol to LAL. However, looking at the Rockets under the last simulation shows that they the could go as high as 4 and as low as 7. Also the top two clusters are guaranteed to be in the playoffs which coincides with the Hollinger Playoff odds. I hope that I answered your question...let me know if you have any questions...
     
    #28 jsmee2000, Feb 7, 2008
  9. Sweet Lou 4 2

    Sweet Lou 4 2 Member

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    yeah, i just eye-balled all the schedules at new years and realized we'd go on a big run in jan-feb and then things woudl toughen up again toward the end.

    But ya know, i predicted denver and portland were the odd teams out of the playoffs, so good to see it confirmed here with this intriguing analysis.
     
    #29 Sweet Lou 4 2, Feb 7, 2008
  10. Blake

    Blake Member

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    nice thread. appreciate the info
     
    #30 Blake, Feb 7, 2008
  11. rodmanhust

    rodmanhust Member

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    it may make some sense~
     
    #31 rodmanhust, Feb 7, 2008
  12. kalmanfilter

    kalmanfilter Rookie

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    National televised games bring Rockets FAIR calls.


     
    #32 kalmanfilter, Feb 7, 2008
  13. dreammvp

    dreammvp Member

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    why cause you could never come up with this kind of stuff?....you look like a total A$$


    good job on the stats.....loved reading it.... :) ...don't listen to the punk who said it was gibberish...we appreciate your work on this...
     
    #33 dreammvp, Feb 8, 2008
  14. northeastfan

    northeastfan Member

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    The Jazz got a steal by getting Korver. Williams, Boozer and Korver can cause a lot of teams a whole lot of trouble. Bizarrely, he may end up having a bigger impact than either Gasol or Shaq despite all the hype.
     
    #34 northeastfan, Feb 8, 2008
  15. blackbird

    blackbird Member

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    HTML:
    Team REC  aSOS cSOS rSOS prediction
PHO 35-15 .505 .472 .557 down down
DAL 34-15 .510 .507 .514 keep
NOH 34-15 .510 .491 .538 down down
UTA 33-19 .505 .513 .491 up
SAS 32-16 .510 .489 .540 down down
LAL 32-17 .505 .531 .466 up up
DEN 30-19 .505 .496 .518 down
GSW 30-20 .505 .495 .521 down
HOU 30-20 .510 .512 .507 up
POR 28-22 .505 .520 .481 up or keep
    SOS: average winning percentage of opponents played
    eSOS: estimated season average SOS
    cSOS: current SOS (from ESPN Hollinger)
    rSOS: remaining SOS
    prediction: based on cSOS and rSOS

    So far, HOU is in a good position.

    .
     
    #35 blackbird, Feb 10, 2008
  16. cdrive

    cdrive Member

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    OMFGROFL
    [​IMG]


    But seriously, excellent, time-soaked crunch work.
     
    #36 cdrive, Feb 10, 2008
  17. mister pc

    mister pc Member

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    Nice analysis for the most part, but this prediction is not likely. Golden State has maybe the toughest April schedule out of any team in the NBA, making it very difficult for them to climb up in the standings during the last couple weeks. If the Nuggets have all their players healthy they should beat out Golden State by a multiple game margin. AI, Melo, Martin, Camby that is no joke, people need to start taking Denver seriously.
     
    #37 mister pc, Feb 10, 2008
  18. BetterThanEver

    BetterThanEver Member

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    People would, if they didn't win almost all their games at home. They have played 27 home games for a 21-6 record.

    Their road schedule will change to have the same number of road games as every other team. They have only played a measly 22 road games and have a 9-13 losing record. These road games weren't even against great teams.
     
    #38 BetterThanEver, Feb 10, 2008
  19. jsmee2000

    jsmee2000 Member

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    Read post #28 in this thread...
    In general most people confuse predictions and projections with likelihood or odds.​
     
    #39 jsmee2000, Feb 10, 2008
  20. jsmee2000

    jsmee2000 Member

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    Those numbers do look good!
     
    #40 jsmee2000, Feb 10, 2008
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