Just thought I'd revisit the topic briefly, as I've recently read some interesting articles on the subject concerning Chinese military intelligence, and the event garnered so much attention here at the time. There were two key problems in the crisis: 1. The Chinese Military actually... umm... lied to Jiang Zemin. At the very least, they grossly misrepresented the truth. Evidently, the first reports to Jiang claimed two falsehoods: a. The spy plane was flying over Chinese territory. b. It was certainly the US pilots fault. Jiang demanded the apology and compensation believing these two things. Unfortunately, when you're a relatively weak leader domestically, and you make that sort of demand, you can't back down after you learn your information was false. Jiang was also facing real pressures from domestic nationalists. 2. Bush really, really screwed up by confronting the problem on the national stage quickly. Other than the relations aspect, there were few reasons that the Chinese wouldn't just give us the plane. By escalating the public relations element of the issue, Bush created a credibility-dilemma for Jiang. It's highly likely that if either of these "breakdowns" not occurred, the issue would not have been a problem at all. After all, the spy plane did not constitute a real security concern to China. Furthermore, Jiang is generally pro-US in his dealings withthe CCP. Unfortunately, both sides "got unlucky." Possible beneficial fall-out: For some time, Jiang has desired to eliminate certain nationalists within the military. It's believed that he may use the "crisis" mistake as leverage to do so during the next party congress in China. On Bush: While he royally screwed up at the beginning to possibly precipitate the crisis, most analysts believe he actually did quite well after the first two days. He was willing to handle the situation pragmatically, and gave "just enough" to allow Jiang to safe-face without actually admitting any degree of guilt. When it was clear that no progress was being made, he issued an understated ultimatum by saying "the US has done all it can to resolve the issue," and his proposal was successful.
Just curious---and I'm certainly not jumping to defend Bush---but how were Bush's initial actions royally screwed up? It's seems that he simply called their bluff. Unfortunately, they called ours right back. Although initially calling their bluff might have carried a little more risk, it seems that that response would have had a better risk to return ratio. If Bush would have tried to quietly negotiate, couldn't China have used that (at least in the court of public opinion) as an admission of guilt? I know I would have called their bluff....but then again, even if I would have never inhaled, I doubt I could even garner one vote for president.
Pole: Bush actually spoke before China did much of anything on the subject. They hadn't bluffed yet, and only did so once Jiang felt that China's credibility in maintaining her borders was at stake. Jiang did eventually figure out that the information he first received was wrong, hence it is unlikely that had Bush not precipitated the immediate escalation of the incident that there would have been much of a conflict at all. The weird thing is... there were actually no true security issues at stake for either party. Yes... the Chinese had our plane. But sensitive information would have been destoryed prior to its capture. Yes... the plane was flying close to Chinese territory... but it wasn't in Chinese territory, contrary to initial military reports. I'm sure China would loooove for us to not even fly that sort of reconnaissance mission... but neither side ever believed that such a degree of importance was attached to this isolated incident. Bush spoke too quickly, too loudly. Jiang acted on false information. And you've got a crisis of credibility in which absolutely nothing substantive is at stake. It's amusing when you ignore how serious stuff like that is . Leverage wasn't even an issue until Bush made it one by determing the "value" of the conflict by making it an international incident. And since we really didn't have anything to gain on the issue, there was no reason to make it one.
