British Gov Scientists. Iraq War Has killed 650,000 Iraqis.

glynch · Mar 28, 2007

Even if many Americans don't care about 650,000 dead Iraqis, the world does and it does impact us when the world views us as unecessarily starting a war that led to these Iraqis dying prematurely. .It could even impact our stock portfolios. Now that is some serious sheet.
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This week, the BBC reported that the government's own scientists advised ministers that the Johns Hopkins study on Iraq civilian mortality was accurate and reliable. This paper was published in the Lancet last October. It estimated that 650,000 Iraqi civilians had died since the American- and British-led invasion in March 2003.

Immediately after publication, the prime minister's official spokesman said that The Lancet's study "was not one we believe to be anywhere near accurate". The foreign secretary, Margaret Beckett, said that the Lancet figures were "extrapolated" and a "leap". President Bush said: "I don't consider it a credible report".

Scientists at the UK's Department for International Development thought differently. They concluded that the study's methods were "tried and tested". Indeed, the Hopkins approach would likely lead to an "underestimation of mortality"....

http://commentisfree.guardian.co.uk/richard_horton/2007/03/counting_the_cost.html

A_3PO · Mar 28, 2007

It's hard to know what is credible. If 650,000 dead Iraqis is somehow true, the United States should be ashamed of itself. Our forces didn't kill all of these people, but the blood of countless dead lays on our hands for setting chaos in motion under false pretenses without fully considering the consequences of our actions.

Or maybe I should say the blood is on the hands of the Bush administration and it's allies. I'm not sure the number is 650,000, but it's a lot people.

madmonkey37 · Mar 28, 2007

Even if its not an accurate number, a very large number of Iraqis have died since they were given their freedom. Only a small fraction of those have been killed by US forces, and most of those killed by the US were insurgents. As already stated the US was ill prepared to deal with the insurgency and especially with the civil strife instigated by Abu Musab Zarqawi. The only real way to have stoped all the senseless killing would have been to either never invaded in the first place or leave shortly after the invasion. It'll be hard for the US to leave now since everyone hates each other and everyone is now armed to the teeth waiting for the US to leave so they can kill each other off.

glynch · Mar 29, 2007

madmonkey37 said:

Even if its not an accurate number, a very large number of Iraqis have died since they were given their freedom. Only a small fraction of those have been killed by US forces, and most of those killed by the US were insurgents. As already stated the US was ill prepared to deal with the insurgency and especially with the civil strife instigated by Abu Musab Zarqawi. The only real way to have stoped all the senseless killing would have been to either never invaded in the first place or leave shortly after the invasion. It'll be hard for the US to leave now since everyone hates each other and everyone is now armed to the teeth waiting for the US to leave so they can kill each other off.
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Oops we made a mistake,despite our always totally honorable intentions.
.

mc mark · Mar 29, 2007

Hayes? Care to comment?

NewYorker · Mar 29, 2007

A_3PO said:

It's hard to know what is credible. If 650,000 dead Iraqis is somehow true, the United States should be ashamed of itself. Our forces didn't kill all of these people, but the blood of countless dead lays on our hands for setting chaos in motion under false pretenses without fully considering the consequences of our actions.

Or maybe I should say the blood is on the hands of the Bush administration and it's allies. I'm not sure the number is 650,000, but it's a lot people.
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What's disturbing is how quickly the admin dismissed it as not credible. They don't care if it's true or not - they just want to soil it as quickly as possible.

That shows the truth doesn't mattar to them - and that is scary.

mc mark · Mar 29, 2007

ah the memories...

http://bbs.clutchfans.net/showthread.php?t=118734&highlight=Lancet

Sishir Chang · Mar 29, 2007

madmonkey37 said:

Even if its not an accurate number, a very large number of Iraqis have died since they were given their freedom. Only a small fraction of those have been killed by US forces, and most of those killed by the US were insurgents.
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I would suspect that the US has killed far more civillians than they have insurgents or Iraqi solidiers during the invasion. You can't drop a 2,000 lb bomb into the middle of a city and only expect to take out combatants.

thadeus · Mar 29, 2007

FREEDOM ISN'T FREE.

Sishir Chang · Mar 29, 2007

thadeus said:

FREEDOM ISN'T FREE.
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And the Iraqis are being forced to pay the price whether they like it or not.

hotballa · Mar 29, 2007

For those who are curious about the BBC report.

note to neocons: stop building other nations and worry about our own first.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/6495753.stm

Iraqi deaths survey 'was robust'
By Owen Bennett-Jones
BBC World Service

The British government was advised against publicly criticising a report estimating that 655,000 Iraqis had died due to the war, the BBC has learnt.

Iraqi Health Ministry figures put the toll at less than 10% of the total in the survey, published in the Lancet.

But the Ministry of Defence's chief scientific adviser said the survey's methods were "close to best practice" and the study design was "robust".

Another expert agreed the method was "tried and tested".

Mortality rates

The Iraq government asks the country's hospitals to report the number of victims of terrorism or military action.

Critics say the system was not started until well after the invasion and requires over-pressed hospital staff not only to report daily, but also to distinguish between victims of terrorism and of crime.

The Lancet medical journal published its peer-reviewed survey last October.

It was conducted by the John Hopkins School of Public Health and compared mortality rates before and after the invasion by surveying 47 randomly chosen areas across 16 provinces in Iraq.

Are we really sure the report is likely to be right? That is certainly what the brief implies
Foreign Office official

The researchers spoke to nearly 1,850 families, comprising more than 12,800 people.

In nearly 92% of cases family members produced death certificates to support their answers. The survey estimated that 601,000 deaths were the result of violence, mostly gunfire.

Shortly after the publication of the survey in October last year Tony Blair's official spokesperson said the Lancet's figure was not anywhere near accurate.

He said the survey had used an extrapolation technique, from a relatively small sample from an area of Iraq that was not representative of the country as a whole.

President Bush said: "I don't consider it a credible report."

But a memo by the MoD's Chief Scientific Adviser, Sir Roy Anderson, on 13 October, states: "The study design is robust and employs methods that are regarded as close to "best practice" in this area, given the difficulties of data collection and verification in the present circumstances in Iraq."

'Cannot be rubbished'

One of the documents just released by the Foreign Office is an e-mail in which an official asks about the Lancet report: "Are we really sure the report is likely to be right? That is certainly what the brief implies."

The reply from another official is: "We do not accept the figures quoted in the Lancet survey as accurate. "

In the same e-mail the official later writes: "However, the survey methodology used here cannot be rubbished, it is a tried and tested way of measuring mortality in conflict zones."

Asked how the government can accept the Lancet's methodology but reject its findings, the government has issued a written statement in which it said: "The methodology has been used in other conflict situations, notably the Democratic republic of Congo.

"However, the Lancet figures are much higher than statistics from other sources, which only goes to show how estimates can vary enormously according to the method of collection.

"There is considerable debate amongst the scientific community over the accuracy of the figures."

'Mainstreet bias'

In fact some of the British government criticism of the Lancet report post-dated Sir Roy's comments.

Speaking six days after Sir Roy praised the study's methods, British foreign office minister Lord Triesman said: "The way in which data are extrapolated from samples to a general outcome is a matter of deep concern...."

It would appear they were only able to sample a small sliver of the country
Dr Michael Spagat

Some scientists have subsequently challenged the validity of the Lancet study. Questions have been asked about the survey techniques and the possibility of "mainstreet bias".

Dr Michael Spagat of Royal Holloway London University says that most of those questioned lived on streets more likely than average to witness attacks: "It would appear they were only able to sample a small sliver of the country," he said.

Dr Spagat has previously conducted research with Iraq Body Count, an NGO that counts deaths on the basis of media reports and which has produced estimates far lower than those published in the Lancet.

If the Lancet survey is right, then 2.5% of the Iraqi population - an average of more than 500 people a day - have been killed since the start of the war.

The BBC World Service made a Freedom of Information Request on 28 November 2006. The information was released on 14 March 2007.
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zoork34 · Mar 29, 2007

there also would be a lot of dead iraqis if we were not over there and had never done anything to "help" them at all. saddam would keep killing people, shiites would still blow up sunnis and vice versa, there would still be car bombings and terrorist crap, etc. the difference is we hear about it all now that we are invovled.

FranchiseBlade · Mar 29, 2007

zoork34 said:

there also would be a lot of dead iraqis if we were not over there and had never done anything to "help" them at all. saddam would keep killing people, shiites would still blow up sunnis and vice versa, there would still be car bombings and terrorist crap, etc. the difference is we hear about it all now that we are invovled.
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Shiites weren't really prolifically blowing up shiites while Saddam was in power. His iron fist policies kept them from doing that kind of thing. There weren't really car bombings, and terrorist crap there while Saddam was in power.

His brutal oppression, and murder of his own countrymen, stifed the kinds of things that you are talking about.

The difference is that Saddam would still imprison and kill folks from time to time, so that is where the deaths would come from. They wouldn't be near the same numbers of deaths we are seeing now.

DonkeyMagic · Mar 29, 2007

whats the point exactly?

unfortunately people kill other people. and when a country is trying to establish itself and find its identity, these things happen. Just like they did in the US.

ChrisBosh · Mar 29, 2007

DonkeyMagic said:

whats the point exactly?

unfortunately people kill other people. and when a country is trying to establish itself and find its identity, these things happen. Just like they did in the US
.
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The point is, it should be up to the people to decide when they want change, not be forced in to it...

zoork34 said:

there also would be a lot of dead iraqis if we were not over there and had never done anything to "help" them at all. saddam would keep killing people, shiites would still blow up sunnis and vice versa, there would still be car bombings and terrorist crap, etc. the difference is we hear about it all now that we are invovled..
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LOL, Iraq borders the U.S doesn't it?

DonkeyMagic · Mar 29, 2007

The point is, it should be up to the people to decide when they want change, not be forced in to it

right...just like saddam gave them that option. That country was so beat down that it couldnt fight saddam

RocketMan Tex · Mar 29, 2007

DonkeyMagic said:

whats the point exactly?
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The point is this:

Iraqi civilians are being killed at a faster pace since the US invaded Iraq than they were during Saddam's reign.

hotballa · Mar 29, 2007

RocketMan Tex said:

The point is this:

Iraqi civilians are being killed at a faster pace since the US invaded Iraq than they were during Saddam's reign.
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I disagree with the war on many many levels, but...

The point is this:

American civilians were being killed at a faster pace since they signed that stupid Declaration of Independence then they were during King George's reign.

FranchiseBlade · Mar 29, 2007

DonkeyMagic said:

The point is, it should be up to the people to decide when they want change, not be forced in to it

right...just like saddam gave them that option. That country was so beat down that it couldnt fight saddam
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Nobody is defending Saddam. I think it is universally agreed that he was horrible.

rhadamanthus · Mar 29, 2007

hotballa said:

American civilians were being killed at a faster pace since they signed that stupid Declaration of Independence then they were during King George's reign.
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To stay with the goofy analogy - the french did not bomb the colonies under the guise of "spurring democratic reform" either.

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