the astros will come back....maybe....maybe no. either way...i predicted it if we do. haha. have a little faith. everyone is entitled to a bad outing. let's not over do it there, mlicki.
yeah, Larry Dierker's fondness for Mlicki is bizarre. He goes 5 innings, max, with any effectiveness, has an ERA over 5, and lacks a single "good" pitch. yet he's a "crafty veteran" so he gets to start. I'd call up Tim Redding. Redding wasn't any worse than Mlicki, and he has a great deal more upside. Sorry, but Mlicki isn't giving us any "veteran leadership" or craftiness. He's just sucking and getting bailed out sometimes by a fabulous offense... while forcing our bull-pen to pitch 4 innings or more every game. Booooo.
Redding had a 5.79 era and pitched 36 innings across 7 starts. That's just over 5 innings a game. That's about what Mlicki is doing. The only difference is that Mlicki is an experienced major leaguer and Redding is like 21 years old and has pitched at AA most of the year. I think Mlicki pitching probably has more to do with his big contract rather than any fondness that Dierker has for him. If he is so fond of crafty veterans why isn't Bottenfield pitching?
Mlicki's last 6 starts (before today): 6IP / 2 ER 5IP / 4 ER 5IP / 3 ER 6IP / 2 ER 7IP / 2 ER 5IP / 3 ER 4W-0L with a 4.2 ERA That's more than adequate for a #5 starter. Never did the bullpen pitch more than 4 innings, and they only went four twice in 6 starts. Tim Redding went fewer innings with a worse ERA, and apparently needed to work on new pitches such as his changeup. If Dierker preferred veterans, we wouldn't have basically 3 rookies as our starting pitchers...
Mlicki has pitched acceptably for a 5th starter of late, however I think whenever the staff is healthy again you'll see a rotation of Reynolds, Miller, Astacio, Oswalt, Hernandez. (Maybe Redding in the #5 spot of Mlicki and Hernandez both bomb out their next couple starts)
If Hernandez can keep up his former dominance, or even pitch close to that, that will be one hell of a lineup. In addition to that, you have one of, if not <b>the</b>, best 1-2 bullpen punch in Dotel and Wagner, and our offense is on easy street for most of the rest of the season. I suggest giving guys like Daryle Ward some ABs.
Mlicki can pitch decently for 5 innings most of the time. But he's going to have trouble going more than that, as much because hitters aren't going to be fooled by their 3rd at-bat. My guess is that Dierker realizes this. Dierker doesn't really like rookies. The amount of at-bats Glen Barker got in the two years prior to this one is proof of that. Berkman OR Ward would have been much more productive, but Barker still got some regular time. Lugo is probably a more productive player than Vizcaino. Defense, after all, is at most 15% of baseball, and Lugo has been steadily improving. Yet Vizcaino's getting more time. Why? Because he's a veteran, imo. Bottenfield is in AAA as much because of injury and attitude as any other reason. Redding didn't pitch tremendously, at all, in his time in Houston. But I'd rather let him have a trial by fire and accelerate his learning than throw someone we KNOW has already reached his full, yet extremely unimpressive, potential. Redding isn't under control; but he has better pure stuff. At least that lends the possibility of an occasional stellar outing. BTW, in that charming list... you do realize that the fewest runs Mlicki has given up as a starter is 2... in 7 innings? That's the best. Yay. He's had good run support. The record is irrelevant. Any time you put him on the mound, you're going to dip into your bull-pen. Deeply. He's not a terrible 5th starter. But whenever you have a guy on his way up and a guy on his way down and probably aren't going to lose much by playing the youngster.... you play the youngster. Especially when the reward could be great.
Honestly haven where do you come up with this stuff!?!? You say stuff like it's the gospel when it's not even true at all. You say Dierker didn't play Berkman or Ward over Barker because they were rookies. Well HELLO!?!? Barker I believe was a rule 5 signee in 1999 and was a ROOKIE. Here are his games played/at bat splits. 1999 81 games/73 at bats 2000 84 games/67 at bats Now here are Berkman's splits. 1999 34 games/93 at bats 2000 114 games/353 at bats Now here are Ward's splits. 1999 64 games/150 at bats 2000 119 games/264 at bats As you can clearly see, Barker got anything but regular time. If anything he was a pinch hitter, outfield replacement, and pinch runner. He averages less than 1 at bat/game played. That is HARD to do. Neither Ward nor Berkman could have played center field in the Astrodome in 1999. Ward could never play center and Berkman wasn't really tried out there until this season. As far as Lugo is concerned, you say that Lugo is steadily improving defensively but how can you substantiate that? Well you can't. Then you say Vizcaino is starting because he's a veteran but Lugo's batting average has gone down about 20 points over the last month or so and I believe he just recently had some leg problem that kept him out of the lineup. He also has about 93 strikeouts in 417 at bats which is unreal for someone with 10 home runs. Your Bottenfield info is pretty much news to me as well. From everything I've read everyone gets along great with him and he's a terrific guy. The reason he's at AAA might have again to do with his contract and the fact that he sucks. I believe he has a guaranteed $2million deal this year. Mlicki also has guaranteed money this year and next year. Drayton is not one to let his players vacation on his money.
Timing: I guess I am wrong about Barker. I don't know why, but my memory seems to believe he played a great deal. BTW, the personal pejorative was completely unnecessary. In any event, I was specifically referring to Bottenfield's pretty forceful statement that he shoul start. I remember that Bagwell was actually somewhat supportive of him. Drayton is a penny pincher, granted. But if money isn't being used effectively, just 'playing' the contracts is pretty worthless. Lugo's batting struggles were accentuated when his playing time began to waiver. There are many players in the league who only hit well when playing regularly. A strikeout isn't much different from any other putout. Look at the # of sacrifices most players usually have in a year. The ratio of AB's to strikeouts isn't going to significantly affect a player's overall productivity. It's a good # for some things... but the walk # is far more important. Lugo certainly does need to work on that... but most players do.
Geez haven, if I can't mess with you who can I mess with!? I apologize if I went over the top there. Anyways, I don't recall the Bottenfield statement but it must have been earlier in the year when he was put in the bullpen I imagine. He's not a very good pitcher and I suspect he would already be gone if it weren't for the money. On Lugo, I think it's the chicken and egg thing. His playing time went down as he began to struggle. For a long time Lugo was the primary guy, then they started splitting time, and now Vizcaino has seemed to start just about every game. In regards to strikeouts, I will disagree completely. With contact there is always the possibility of an error or ruffling of the pitcher. With runners on base, contact can advance or even score runners. A strikeout is zero, nada. The #2 position in a lineup is traditionally a contact hitter with speed who can advance runners and handle the bat well. The Astros have no one else to put in that two hole so Lugo is kind of there by default. We need Bill Spiers!
Bottenfeld was at AAA on a rehab assignment and just underwent season ending surgery last week. If Bottenfeld had been healthy he would have been given a chance in Mlicki's spot. If he had been healthy, Hernandez may not have been called up. Incidentally, according to Hunsicker, the Astros offered to release Bottenfeld and Kent refused. This was prior to the surgery. Kent said he felt like he had an obligation to the team and wanted to do everything possible to contribute this year.
<B>you do realize that the fewest runs Mlicki has given up as a starter is 2... in 7 innings? That's the best. Yay. He's had good run support. The record is irrelevant. Any time you put him on the mound, you're going to dip into your bull-pen. Deeply. </B> In those 6 mentioned starts, the Astros have scored 4, 3, 3, 5, 10, and 6 runs. Outside of the 10 run game, that's not great run support -- about what you'd expect from this team, if not worse than average. Of course Mlicki is going to give up 2 runs a game. As you said, he can't go through the batting order more than 2-3 times, but they'll leave him in as long as possible. He's going to come out after he's given up a few runs, so he'll basically always give up a few runs. Nevertheless, his ERA was *4.2* -- that's not bad. Redding needs to learn a new pitch, which is exactly what he's doing in AAA. The majors is not a good time to be experimenting and seeing what happens. Mlicki gives the team a chance to win almost every time out, and that's all you can expect of a #5 starter, IMO. Besides, if you bring up Redding, what do you do with Mlicki? McLane won't let you release him b/c of the $6M salary. The team doesn't like to carry 12 pitchers. So you have to dump Villone or Cruz from the bullpen, which is even worse.
Well, rosters expand in 6 days. I wouldn't be surprised to see Redding called up then, especially if Mlicki has another bad outing or Shane isn't able to come back by then. But honestly, nobody in the league has a good 5th starter. The Yankees have been starting terrible Ted Lilly, for crying out loud. I'm not excited about Mlicki, but I saw enough of Redding to know that he needs more time in AAA. He's going to be good, but he was rushed. Better for him to get his starts in a regular rotation down in New Orleans, without the pennant race pressure, rather than being used as a 5th starter here (getting skipped in the rotation whenever we have an off day). Plus, when it comes down to it, the 5th starter is irrelevant by the time we get to the playoffs.
The Astros will not bring anyone up of 09/01 unless it is absolutely necessary. They will allow the players to finish the playoffs with their minor league teams. Sometime in September they will bring up Redding (but it'll be for relief purposes unless necessary) and perhaps a couple of others. Keep in mind that major league time starts when these guys are called up so you probably won't see Jason Lane. If Servais is still hurt, I would expect them to bring up Chavez to ensure they have a 3rd catcher. Slusarski will also get a call since he has ML experience and perhaps Franklin as well.
I'd thought the Bottenfield injury was a sham to clear roster space but apparently not. Thanks for the info!
Mlicki won't be a factor in the playoffs when the Astros go with a 4 man rotation or a 3 man rotation.
I doubt that Mlicki will even be on the playoff roster. Currently any player on the 25 man roster OR on the disabled list on 08/31 can be on the playoff roster. As long as Reynolds and Astacio are healthy, you know they will be added. Thus, 2 current pitchers (or 1 current pitcher and whoever they bring up to replace Astacio) will be dropped. Since Mlicki will not be used in the playoffs, he's the one obvious choice.
