I know Larkin is old and is currently injured but seriously, Hunsicker would fall out of his box at Enron if Cincinnati wanted to trade a healthy Larkin straight up for Lugo. Same thing with Vizquel, Furcal, and most everyone on that list. Lugo's offensive numbers are Enron inflated. Lugo is a .257 hitter away from Enron which is about what Adam Everett is hitting at AAA. ------------------ First the Sopranos and now Eddie Griffin... thank you New Jersey!
Shanna's right in that OPS is probably the best statistical measure of a player's value to the team. Defense makes up maybe 15% of baseball; assuming there's a 50/50 split between offense and defense, then one has to divide the 50 for defense among pitching and fielding; clearly, fielding isn't as important. Just look at the ERA/RA deviation among most major league pitchers. It's not significant. Lugo isn't really a bad defender anymore. So at best, anybody's going to have a marginal overall advantage over him on the issue. But his OPS is quite good for a MLB shortstop. That tells me all I need to know: Lugo's a keeper. As for Shanna "not watching" enough baseball games... in baseball, I'll take statistical proof over observation any day. I think Bill James, Rob Neyer, etc have a much better record for predictions than people like Peter Gammons. So often you hear the "old school" people who watch the game make these silly predictions, while the sabermetricians will contradict them immediately... and they're right more often than not. So I'd say OPS is superior to watching games. ------------------ Clutchcity.net... source for all your Rockets, Astros, political, music, humor, and Gordita news. [This message has been edited by haven (edited July 17, 2001).]
oh boy. Watching Reynolds pitch makes me want to say "bring on Leiter AND Astacio." When Shane's splitter doesn't dip, he's throwing BP out there. ------------------ "norm, would you like to buy an indian scalp ? This deal isn't gonna make or break me Norm, so don't jerk me around." Harry Carey "Norm, if I had a mohawk scalp, I wouldn't be sitting here talking to you."
When the Astros face a dominant pitching performance in the playoffs, they're gonna need all the bats they can get. ------------------ New Order, Electro Superstars
I feel much better now that Haven disagrees with me. The truth about Lugo's numbers is that he hits .304 at Enron and .257 on the road. Considering that Enron is probably #2 behind Coors as far as the best offensive parks are concerned, his road batting average is much more indicative of his offensive ability than his home batting average. If I took those 15 shorstops who are clearly better than Lugo and had them play half their games at Enron, they would all drastically improve in offensive production and remain static in defensive ability. Lugo is average at best and you two have obviously been fooled by the Enron factor into thinking he is anything more than average at best. Lugo will be gone like the wind if Adam Everett can hit .260 in the majors. Again though, speaking of what Lugo is worth, there isn't a player on that list I provided who would be traded straight up for Julio Lugo. There is more to baseball than your calculators and fantasy baseball statistics. If it were all about your calculators then Brad Ausmus would have been exiled a long long time ago. ------------------ First the Sopranos and now Eddie Griffin... thank you New Jersey!
he truth about Lugo's numbers is that he hits .304 at Enron and .257 on the road. Considering that Enron is probably #2 behind Coors as far as the best offensive parks are concerned, his road batting average is much more indicative of his offensive ability than his home batting average. Sorry, but none of this is true. Enron increases *power* by turning doubles into HR's. However, the park doesn't really increase a batter's average anything like Coors would, especially not for a low-power hitter like Lugo. Singles, doubles, etc, are no different than any other ballpark. HR's are created because the park is small. Coors, on the other hand, is enormous. HR's are created because the ball carries due to the thin air. However, the enormous ballpark also creates more singles and doubles because there's so much space in the outfield. For example, Bagwell, Castilla, and Berkman are hitting better on the road. Alou, Biggio, and Hidalgo are hitting better at home. There are going to be random discrepencies in BA like that with only 100-150 at-bats each at home or on the road. Again though, speaking of what Lugo is worth, there isn't a player on that list I provided who would be traded straight up for Julio Lugo. Really? Based on this year alone, St. Louis would trade Renteria and his 0.239 average with no power for Lugo straight-up in a heartbeat. Lugo's both better and cheaper, even if you only look at the road stats. As demonstrated earlier, Lugo's better than half of the players on there. Of course, he doesn't have the big name or a history of success, so you wouldn't trade a proven player for him. That doesn't mean he's not having a better season. ------------------ http://www.swirve.com ... more fun than a barrel full of monkeys and midgets.
By the way, even if you take Lugo's ROAD numbers: 0.311 OBP, 0.395 SLG = 0.706 OPS and compare them to the average NL shortstop: 0.311 OBP, 0.375 SLG = 0.686 OPS Even if you take Lugo only at his worst, he's a bit better than the average NL shortstop. I think he's clearly an above average shortstop. ------------------ http://www.swirve.com ... more fun than a barrel full of monkeys and midgets.
No you're wrong, everything I mentioned was 100% true. Lugo does hit nearly 50 points better at home than on the road and Enron Field is among the best offensive parks in baseball. All of that can be verified. The Astros as a team hit .288 at home, which is 2nd in the league like I mentioned, and they hit .272 on the road. Clearly they hit for a much higher average at home. The Astros in 45 games at home have hit 72 homers and in 46 games on the road have hit 72 homers. What was that stuff about homers and Enron and whatever!? lol The batting average differential for a few guys on the road is REALLY dramatic. There is more to being an offensive park than the air, the altitude, and all that other junk. There is psychology, comfort, weather, hitting background, etc. Those things can explain why Jose Cabreba was released by us for pitching horribly and then hooks up with Atlanta and no one can touch him now. Nothing can hide the fact that Lugo is a .300 hitter in the Enron Field hitters paradise but is a .257 hitter while playing in the more legitimate offensive parks in the league. ------------------ First the Sopranos and now Eddie Griffin... thank you New Jersey!
Nothing can hide the fact that Lugo is a .300 hitter in the Enron Field hitters paradise but is a .257 hitter while playing in the more legitimate offensive parks in the league. Really? Because Lugo hit twenty points better on the road last year (0.294 to 0.274). Did the design of Enron suddenly change? Lance Berkman hits 50 points higher on the road (0.380 to 0.330). Is Enron a pitcher's park for Berkman? Using small samples, like you did, can get nice results that show what you want. Unfortunately, they aren't accurate. ------------------ http://www.swirve.com ... more fun than a barrel full of monkeys and midgets.
From ESPN.com The Houston Chronicle reports that the Astros have interest in Mets' lefties Al Leiter and Glendon Rusch. Leiter, whose limited no-trade clause allows him to block trades to selected teams, could not veto a trade to Houston. The Mets are expected to target OF Daryle Ward, the paper said. ------------------ RKMAN Proud believer of the 2001 World Champion Houston Astros.
I'd do it. Houston would also probably have to throw in a young pitcher. Ward will never get significant playing time with the Astros as long as Bagwell remains healthy. Ward is a liability in the outfield which will prevent him from ever being a fixture there. Sign Alou to a 2-3 year deal. "Rent" Leiter for the rest of this year for Ward and McKnight. It would also not surprise me to see them ask for Ginter. ------------------
If you want to use the OPS of players during a half season as valid to rate shortstops league wide then it's perfectly fine for me to use a function of OPS to further break down Lugo's numbers to rate his performance in more legitimate hitting parks. You brought up these numbers in an attempt to validate Lugo as "far better than the average shortstop". Don't get upset now that those same numbers show that Lugo benefits greatly from hitting at Enron. You brought up OPS, not me. You brought up homers but neglected to realize the Astros have hit as many homers at Enron as they have on the road. You also said that hitters don't hit for a higher average in Enron which is clearly not true for the Astros as a team. You're striking out a lot here. ------------------ First the Sopranos and now Eddie Griffin... thank you New Jersey!
If you want to use the OPS of players during a half season as valid to rate shortstops league wide then it's perfectly fine for me to use a function of OPS to further break down Lugo's numbers to rate his performance in more legitimate hitting parks. Except you didn't do this. As I pointed out, he hit far better on the road last year. If he consistently hit better at Enron, you could make an argument, but he doesn't. People's home/road numbers during a half-season are almost always divergent due to small sample size. You brought up these numbers in an attempt to validate Lugo as "far better than the average shortstop". He is. He's better on the road, he's better at home, he's better last year, he's better this year. However you break it down, he's been better than the average shortstop. Exactly how did you show otherwise? You brought up OPS, not me. And OPS is the easiest effective way of measuring offense. You can also break down into average, slugging, and OBP. Lugo wins in all of these categories as well. You brought up homers but neglected to realize the Astros have hit as many homers at Enron as they have on the road. What's your point? The Astros are the best HR hitting team in the NL and will hit HR's everywhere. Trying looking at the total HR's hit (by both teams) in Astros games at home and on the road. You also said that hitters don't hit for a higher average in Enron which is clearly not true for the Astros as a team. They hit for 0.17 points more in average. You do realize that home teams win more games than road teams right? Have you considered why this is? Maybe it's that teams hit & pitch better at home? If you read properly, I said Enron does not change average substantially. Coors is the only park that could raise batting average by 0.50 points. But thank you for pointing out with the stats that Enron does not do so. If Enron is worth 0.17 points in average, then how does that explain Lugo's 0.50 point increase? You tried to make the connection that Lugo is an "enron" hitter because of 1/2 season of statistics. You conveniently ignored his career, though. Why? You also ignore that many batters hit worse at Enron (Berkman, for example). Is Enron a pitcher's park for certain players? Or is it possible that these are normal deviations, and Enron simply raises BA's only 0.10-0.17 points. No one is denying that Enron helps batters -- both in power & average. However, the benefits are primarily in power, and comparatively little in average. The park functions nothing like Coors field. If you ignore this, you're ignoring basic physics. You're striking out a lot here. Funny, because you're the one claiming Lugo is not above average. The basic numbers disagree with you. Even your deflated "road only" numbers disagree with you. His career numbers disagree with you. The park effects disagree with you. You made a list of better shortstops, half of which were clearly worse. I guess I missed where you made your strong case. ------------------ http://www.swirve.com ... more fun than a barrel full of monkeys and midgets.
A wise old man once told me, 'use the force'. Statistics can be misleading. Gut and Feel tell me much more than any stat. Red Murf knew Ryan would be an awesome pitcher despite his statistics. I like Lugo, but I would never rely on statistics to tell me what he brings to the table. I would use them to help me make decisions, but ultimately, it's much more important to go with your gut. ------------------ humble, but hungry.
I said Enron is the second best offensive park in baseball and I backed that up with statistics. You want to rail on about Colorado which the best park. None of this changes the fact that Enron is the second best offensive park. That's a fact that you're trying to ignore. Chime on all you want about the air and the hot dogs and the soda water, Enron is the second best offensive park in baseball. Then you want to compare Bagwell, Alou, and Berkman to Lugo except there is a big problem with that. Bagwell, Alou, and Berkman are great hitters, Lugo is not. Bagwell hit lights out at the Astrodome, among the best pitchers parks in baseball history. Alou had arguably his best offensive season ever playing at the Astrodome in 1998. Great hitters are great hitters anywhere. It's the fringe players like Lugo who benefit most from parks like Enron. Enron can turn average looking hitters into sluggers and fool people like you into thinking they're far better than they really are. You're ignoring the fact that Lugo plays in the second best offensive park in baseball. You're ignoring the fact that he has no range and no arm. You're ignoring the fact that any shortstop in the league would have higher offensive production while playing at Enron. Stop living in fantasy land and come back to realityville. All of your OPS posturing means about nothing because when it comes down to it no GM in the league is going to trade Renteria for Lugo and nobody is going to trade Vizquel for Lugo on a talent for talent basis. The Astros would be a much better team with a great defensive shorstop hitting .260 with some speed instead of a guy like Lugo on pace for 140 strikeouts. Haven I don't know what the heck tangent you've gone on but we're talking about Julio Lugo here. Saying Everett is hitting .250 at AAA and will hit .220 in the majors is what's flat out dumb. You can't judge players based simply on statistics people. I can name a lot of the best prospects in all of baseball who are hitting worse than Adam Everett in the minors this year including probably the Cubs best prospect Corey Patterson who was just recently called up. There is far more to baseball than some of you have cared to notice. ------------------ First the Sopranos and now Eddie Griffin... thank you New Jersey!
Timing: I was quoting you directly. The argument that "what I see with my own eyes is more meaningful than stats" annoys me, since people who rely on stats are generally more accurate in their predictions. Here's my argument: 1. fielding is about 15% of baseball and thus will not substantially effectr overall player evaluations. I admit, Lugo is a mediocre fielder. 2. Lugo has a mid-high OPS for a SS. OPS is the best measurement of offensive ability. 3. Enron does not dramatically improve non-power hitters. If I'm correct in these 3 propositions then I've established that Lugo is indeed an above-average SS. Your arguments appear as the following. 1. not disputed currently. 2. I'd rather trust my eyes than stats 3. Enron does dramatically improve non-power hitters aveage. Shanna & co seem to be ably disputed point 3, so I've focused on point 2. ------------------ Clutchcity.net... source for all your Rockets, Astros, political, music, humor, and Gordita news. [This message has been edited by haven (edited July 18, 2001).]
Timing --- your sarcasm isn't cute...maybe someday if you work hard enough, you can be just like Jim Rome!! Go get 'em!! And maybe we call watch Jim Everett kick your ass on television..just like good ole Jim! As for Adam Everett...have you seen this guy play??? I'm guessing no. The guy couldn't hit on any level of the minors...he couldn't hit in the Olympics...I don't believe he's gonna all of a sudden come around. Also...I doubt quite seriously that his numbers will improve when he comes to face better pitchers in the majors. Has that scenario happened before??? certainly...but it's not common. If you're assuming he's gonna be one of the rare ones who performs better against MLB pitching than he does against minor league pitchers, good luck!!! I hope you're right. But I seriously doubt it. He's not ready for major league pitching this year. Occasionally you'll read in the Chronicle that he's improved..that he's jumped his average up to .255...then a couple of weeks later he'll be right back down in the .230's. Saying that every SS in the league would do better than Lugo in Enron is a joke! Lugo clearly has some offensive skills. To his detriment, he's not a patient hitter. He doesn't walk very often. And he often overswings. Is he an average fielder?? he's at least, average. His defense hasn't killed us or cost us games. Thanks for you comments on our baseball knowledge here...you're clearly smarter than all the rest of us here. How long did you play baseball, Timing??? ------------------
You're to sweet to me . You fail to address any of my arguments as to why stats are more important, then just reassert your position? After an argument has been indicted, you have to debate the indictment, not simply reassert if you want to discuss this. The Cincinati Reds are a case in point on this one. Remember when they got Griffey? How so many people thought they might win it all? Well, Neyer and some guy from Baseball Prospectus (the sabermetricians) both thought it was ridiculous. They went over the Reds roster, pointed out that almost every Red had a career year in that dream season in 99... and that it was monumentally unlikely to happen again. They also pointed out that Griffey had *never* been the greatest hitter in baseball, contrary to popular opinion, and that he'd been declining for 3 solid years. The Reds flopped. Same things with the Rangers this year; half of the baseball communitywas treating them as the AL champs already; the statisticians, however, were like "what the heck? They have no pitching.... and , mostof these players are likely to perform as well because they're all OLD." There are all sorts of cases like this; generally, people who rely on sabermetrics predict team performance better than people who rely on "what they see." I wouldn't use this for scouting minor leagues; but once the major leagues begins... well, stats are a better indicator. Read some Bill James . ------------------ Clutchcity.net... source for all your Rockets, Astros, political, music, humor, and Gordita news. [This message has been edited by haven (edited July 18, 2001).] [This message has been edited by haven (edited July 18, 2001).]
Phi Slamma Jamma -- I would agree...as long as you're talking about potential. If you're saying you have a gut feeling that Lugo won't end up having a career as good as Player X, that's fine. But to say Player X is having a better season than Lugo because you have a gut feeling that he is, is just flat out dumb. Lugo's numbers this year...not next year...compare very favorably to those around the league. shanna -- finally something we can agree on!!! the Enron factor is so overrated it's funny. Yes, it will increase power numbers. But it simply doesn't have the gaps that Coors Field does...those gaps that turn outs into singles and doubles. It's those gaps that allow the super inflated numbers we see in batting average. Lugo has been somewhat streaky, it seems. That's to be expected for a young player, though. Overall, I've been pretty pleased with the way he's played. And hell no...i would not trade him for Larkin. Larkin NEVER plays (he's on my fantasy team and he's killing me!)...he's been like that for a few years now. For a healthy Larkin during his MVP year??? sure..but that's not the Barry Larkin that walks the earth today! I think we've gotten more out of Lugo than I expected to get. As for Adam Everett. Just because he can hit .250 in AAA, does not mean he can do the same here. More likely he hits about .220 up here. Sorry, but even the best defensive shortstop in the league doesn't justify adding an instant out like that to your lineup. Not with the way the game is played today. Back in the Ozzie Smith days, that was fine. No longer. Keep your Rey Ordonez! I love flashy defensive SS...there is nothing more beautiful in sport than an athletic double play...but it's simply not worth what it costs you offensively. That's why Jeter, ARod, Garciaparra and Tejada are so valuable...they have both of those skills. ------------------
