[ESPN INSIDER] FORD: West Forecast

I didn't see this posted and I don't know how many of you have Insider acounts, so I decided to let you guys take a look. I was shocked by the kings being bumped up so much from 6 last season to 2 now while the Rox only went from 5 to 4 and the Mavs fell from 4 to 7 while only losing Finley. We all know Ford is a quack, so I just wanted to see what you guys thought. I know I only have a few posts on this board, but I've been a member for maybe 2 or 3 years now and I've been following the threads ever since.


1. Spurs

Major additions: Nick Van Exel, Fabricio Oberto
Major subtractions: None

The skinny: The world champs won in convincing fashion last year, and they come back to defend their title with every key player still on their roster. The addition of Oberto, one of the top big men in Europe in the last five years, only strengthens them. As long as Tim Duncan, Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili stay healthy, they're the team to beat. If they also somehow get their claws on Michael Finley, everyone is in for a world of trouble.

2. Kings

Major additions: Shareef Abdur-Rahim, Bonzi Wells, Jason Hart
Major subtractions: Cuttino Mobley, Bobby Jackson, Greg Ostertag

The skinny: It looks like the window never closes completely in Sacramento. Just when it looked like time to write off the Kings for good, GM Geoff Petrie had a stellar summer and the Kings suddenly look very formidable again. Their starting five (Mike Bibby, Peja Stojakovic, Brad Miller, Abdur-Rahim and Wells) is terrific. And for the first time in several years, they have a very solid bench, with Kenny Thomas, Corliss Williamson and Brian Skinner anchoring up front and Hart in the backcourt. If either second-year guard Kevin Martin or rookie Francisco Garcia step up, the Kings will have the ammunition to give the Spurs a run.

3. Suns

Major additions: Kurt Thomas, Raja Bell, Boris Diaw, Brian Grant
Major subtractions: Joe Johnson, Quentin Richardson, Nate Robinson, Steven Hunter

The skinny: The Suns literally ran away with the West last season, but major changes threaten to end some of the fun. Losing Johnson was an especially tough blow. Not only was he the team's best 3-point shooter, but he was also the primary backup at the point for Steve Nash. Thomas, Bell, Diaw and Grant all add defensive toughness, something the Suns sorely lacked last season. But to get it, you've got to wonder if the Suns traded away the critical elements that made them special last year. I doubt they'll be nearly as good (or entertaining) during the regular season. But if the toughness pays off in the playoffs, GM Bryan Colangelo doesn't care.

4. Rockets

Major additions: Stromile Swift, Derek Anderson, Luther Head
Major subtractions: Clarence Weatherspoon

The skinny: Jeff Van Gundy has been complaining about his backcourt ever since he got to Houston and now he has eight players to hold up the ship. Anderson and Head are the two most important new additions at guard, but the impact might pale in comparison to the big athletic guy they got to play alongside Yao Ming. Swift has been an enigma his entire career -- superstar talent, subpar work ethic. If Van Gundy can get consistent effort out of him (remember, two pretty good coaches, Hubie Brown and Mike Fratello, couldn't), the Rockets could be poised to take a major step forward in the West. But even at half-speed, Swift remains a significant shot blocking and rebounding force in the middle.

5. Nuggets

Major additions: Julius Hodge, Linas Kleiza
Major subtractions: None

The skinny: New head coach George Karl worked miracles with the Nuggets toward the end of last season. But Denver is still a stellar shooting guard away from being a legit contender. Hodge was a good draft pick, but his ugly shot won't help the Nuggets in the 3-point department. GM Kiki Vandeweghe has been working the phones all summer, but has come up empty in his pursuit of a veteran two guard. The Nuggets are now flirting with Latrell Sprewell. That should tell you how desperate they've become.

6. Warriors

Major additions: Ike Diogu, Chris Taft
Major subtractions: None

The skinny: No one has been tougher than I have been on the Warriors for the past six years. New GM Chris Mullin got off to a shaky start last summer when he signed Derek Fisher and Adonal Foyle to ridiculous deals. But since then, his moves have been stellar. Adding Baron Davis at the trade deadline had an amazing effect on the team. Then Mullin followed it up with one of the best drafts of the summer. Diogu could give the Warriors a much-needed Elton Brand-esque presence in the paint. With the improvement of Jason Richardson, Troy Murphy and Mike Dunleavy last season, the Warriors could be on the verge of a big jump in the West. If everyone stays healthy (always a big if for Davis), the Warriors' long playoff drought will end.

7. Mavs

Major additions: Doug Christie
Major subtractions: Michael Finley

The skinny: The Big Three is now just the Big One. Luckily for the Mavs, the remaining player of the trio happens to be the best -- Dirk Nowitzki, but he'll have an even bigger load to carry. Once upon a time, the Mavs were a fun run-and-gun team. Now, with Avery Johnson at the helm, it looks like they're getting serious about defense. Christie, Jason Terry, Erick Dampier and Josh Howard can all be tough defenders. If Marquis Daniels can jump back from an off year, if Devin Harris can prove he's ready to handle the point and if the Mavs can get something out of one of their three project centers (D.J. Mbenga, Pavel Podkolzin and DeSagana Diop) the Mavs will still be formidable. But that's an awful lot of ifs for a team that once had aspirations for a championship.

8. Sonics

Major additions: None
Major subtractions: Antonio Daniels, Jerome James

The skinny: The Sonics were the surprise team in the West last year. We picked them to finish last and instead, they finished third. Can the magic continue? There are a lot of factors working against a Sonics Cinderella repeat. Head coach Nate McMillan is gone. Daniels, a key reserve and the team's best perimeter defender, bolted for Washington. One other key free agent, Vladimir Radmanovic, remains unsigned. The Sonics' success had a lot to do with great chemistry and coaching. With McMillan gone and the team visibly weaker, you've got to wonder how far Ray Allen, Rashard Lewis and Luke Ridnour can actually take them. In other words, an eighth seed might be too generous, especially if they lose Radmanovic.

9. Timberwolves

Major additions: Marko Jaric, Rashad McCants
Major subtractions: Sam Cassell, Latrell Sprewell, Fred Hoiberg

The skinny: Last season was a disaster in just about every way imaginable. GM Kevin McHale had to fire his best friend, Flip Saunders, and take the team over himself with mediocre results. McHale has worked hard to purge his team of his two prize acquisitions two years ago -- Cassell and Sprewell. In their place is Jaric, a versatile, big guard who plays with great toughness and intensity and McCants, one of the most talented (and troubled) players in this year's draft. Will they be enough to get the Wolves back to the playoffs? We'll see. The team still lacks a decent center and a veteran two guard should McCants not be ready to step up.

10. Clippers

Major additions: Sam Cassell, Cuttino Mobley
Major subtractions: Bobby Simmons, Marko Jaric

The skinny: At the end of the 2004-05 regular season, I was convinced the Clippers were on the verge of the playoffs this upcoming season. Now, not so much. Had the team kept Simmons and Jaric (and drafted Danny Granger instead of Yaroslav Korolev), I think they would've been a serious playoff team. With Mobley and Cassell on the team, I wonder if Elton Brand and Corey Maggette will ever see the ball again. The Cassell trade is the biggest head scratcher. Cassell poisoned his team last year. With Shaun Livingston looking like the brightest star to come out of the Clippers in a long time, why risk poisoning him with Cassell? Once again, the Clippers looked to be on the verge of something special and found a way to screw it up.

11. Lakers

Major additions: Kwame Brown, Aaron McKie
Major subtractions: Caron Butler, Chucky Atkins, Brian Grant

The skinny: The Lakers are, without a doubt, the hardest team in the league to place right now. Can Phil Jackson fix everything that went wrong in L.A.? Will Kobe Bryant respond to his coaching and start sharing the ball? Will Brown, playing on a two-year deal, finally live up to his potential? Who's going to play point guard? Will high school rookie Andrew Bynum be ready to contribute in the middle? If all of these issues work themselves out, the Lakers will be back in the hunt for the playoffs. If they don't, the Lakers' soap opera might rival what will go on in New York this season.

12. Jazz

Major additions: Deron Williams, Greg Ostertag
Major subtractions: Kirk Snyder, Curtis Borchardt, Raul Lopez

The skinny: Last year we thought the Jazz could be as high as a sixth seed in the West. A major injury to Andrei Kirilenko destroyed any chance of the Jazz's competing for the playoffs. Now that he's healthy, why aren't the Jazz back atop the list? Especially with the addition of Williams to run the point? They might be. If Kirilenko and Matt Harpring can stay healthy and Mehmet Okur shows up to camp in shape, the Jazz could be sleepers again. Then again, given the stiff competition in the West, it's a tough bet.

13. Grizzlies

Major additions: Eddie Jones, Bobby Jackson, Damon Stoudamire, Hakim Warrick
Major subtractions: Stromile Swift, Jason Williams, James Posey, Bonzi Wells, Earl Watson

The skinny: Last year the Grizzlies were the deepest team in the league. But after losing five critical players (two starters and three key reserves) it's hard to believe that the Grizzlies can keep up the success. Jones is on the downside of his career. Stoudamire and Jackson are both shooting guards masquerading as point guards. Warrick has talent, but he's not ready yet. The bottom line is that the Grizzlies have less talent than they did last year. While it might help a bit in the chemistry department, look for the win column to take a big hit.

14. Blazers

Major additions: Martell Webster, Juan Dixon, Sergei Monia
Major subtractions: Shareef Abdur-Rahim, Damon Stoudamire, Derek Anderson, Nick Van Exel

The skinny: The Blazers have one of the brightest young squads in the league and one of the league's best coaches in Nate McMillan, but they will be in over their heads in the West this year. Losing four veterans and replacing them with three rookies and a lifelong reserve probably won't translate into wins this season. The good news is that the Blazers look loaded for the future. Zach Randolph has already arrived -- and will improve when he starts to share the ball. Travis Outlaw looked awesome this summer. Sebastian Telfair is improving. If the Blazers get the long-range shooting from Webster and Monia and the toughness in the paint from Joel Przybilla, they'll be tough ... eventually. But their fans are going to have to be patient.

15. Hornets

Major additions: Chris Paul, Arvydas Macijauskas, Kirk Snyder
Major subtractions: Dan Dickau

The skinny: The Hornets have had a decent summer, but it won't be enough to lift them out of the cellar in the West. Paul has a chance to be the top point guard in the league someday. Pair him with J.R. Smith and Jamaal Magloire (assuming he doesn't demand a trade) and the Hornets have a nice core. Macijauskas, Snyder, Chris Andersen and Speedy Claxton all are solid reserves. Another year in the lottery and a decent free agent signing next summer and the Hornets should be movin' on up. But this year, expect more misery.