[foxsports] Separating the West's contenders from pretenders

Rockets, a contender?

Separating the West's contenders from pretenders

Kevin Hench / FOXSports.com
Posted: 13 minutes ago

In the five years after Michael Jordan left the Bulls for retirement and ill-fated Wizardry, the Eastern Conference won a total of six games in the NBA Finals.

The league became so tilted to the West that the championship series was a mere formality, a leisurely ride down the Champs-Elysees for the Spurs or Lakers.

Thankfully, that has changed. Though everyone assumed form would hold last June, the Pistons ended the West's reign by pounding the Lakers. The arrival of Shaquille O'Neal in Miami has further balanced the conferences. So picking a Western Conference champion is once again just that and not a presumptive title pick as well.

That said, six of the eight teams in the league playing over .600 ball reside in the West. If the Eastern Conference champ wins it all again, it may well be because the Western champ simply has nothing left after dispatching its conference foes.

As the season moves into its final third, let's separate the pretenders and contenders in the wild West.

First-round fodder

Memphis Grizzlies

Give Mike Fratello the Coach of the Year Award if the Grizz make the playoffs, but don't be surprised when they get swept in the first round.

Memphis has ridiculous depth and plays great D, but the Grizzlies lack those go-to types that are critical in the playoffs when so many possessions come down to the final five seconds on the shot clock.

Los Angeles Lakers

While the Lakers may have the best player in the NBA with the shot clock winding down in Kobe Bryant, they have little else that would indicate anything but a quick exit should they hang onto the No. 8 spot, which I doubt they will.

Pretenders

Minnesota Timberwolves

Expect the T-wolves to make a successful push to the playoffs under Kevin McHale and expect tongues to start wagging about how last year's conference runners-up could easily pull an upset in the first round. And then watch as Minnesota gets pounded by San Antonio and begins a new streak of getting bounced in the first round.

Kevin Garnett is still the best player in the game, but the members of his supporting cast have gotten old, hurt or downright ineffective in a hurry.

This whole lost season may be karmic payback for Latrell Sprewell's ridiculous comments about feeding his family.

Seattle SuperSonics

How can a team playing .700 ball at the All-Star break be a pretender, you ask? Easy. They have no post presence.

Jump-shooting teams like the Sonics have the greatest disparity between regular-season success and playoff failure. The reason is simple: open shots are just harder to come by in the postseason. And when Ray Allen, Rashard Lewis and Vladimir Radmanovic find everything contested on the perimeter, the down-low options of Danny Fortson, Jerome James, Reggie Evans and Nick Collison just won't be enough to avoid a first-round flameout.

If the season ended today, the Sonics would draw the Rockets in the opening round and probably be underdogs.

Phoenix Suns

Cheer up, Suns fans. Of the pretenders, your team is the best.

Though Amare Stoudemire gives Phoenix a more complete inside-outside attack than Seattle, the Suns are also overly reliant on long jump shots from Quentin Richardson, Steve Nash, Joe Johnson and corner sniper Shawn Marion to seriously challenge a team like San Antonio.

The Suns are also just a little too small. They've got a power forward playing center, a small forward playing power forward and a wee Canadian playing point guard. I know those three players — Stoudemire, Marion and Nash — are All-Stars, but size does matter in the NBA playoffs and Phoenix just doesn't have enough beef.

I'd love to be wrong about this and see the Suns playing in June because no team is more fun to watch.

Contenders

Houston Rockets

If there's one team San Antonio would like to avoid in the Western Conference playoffs, it's Houston. After stumbling out of the gate to a 6-11 start, the Rockets have gone 26-10, including two wins over the Spurs, and are riding high on an eight-game winning streak.

While All-Stars Tracy McGrady and Yao Ming are now becoming the dominant inside-outside combo coach Jeff Van Gundy has been dreaming of, the key to the Rockets resurgence has been do-everything grinder Bob Sura.

Sura is averaging 10.8 points per game, 6.2 rebounds and 5.3 assists. In the last five wins of the Rockets' current streak, Sura has pulled down 50 rebounds. In the first win of the streak, he dished out 10 assists in a win over the Celtics, two off his season high. In mid-January, he poured in 35 points in a 94-85 victory over the Nets. Sura is in his 10th NBA season, and he has appeared in just six postseason games. He deserves another shot at the playoffs.

Dallas Mavericks

For the first couple months of the Erick Dampier era in Dallas, the big fella did all he could to confirm suspicions that he would only play in a contract year. He was either on the bench in foul trouble or flexing his powers of invisibility on the court. I should know, I made the mistake of drafting him as the starting center on my roto team.

But shortly after I released him — natch — Dampier became the man in the middle the Mavs have been missing. In one recent 11-game stretch, he averaged 13.5 rebounds a game. He also scored in double figures in eight straight before hurting his foot in a win at Golden State last week. If Dampier can contribute in the pivot, the Mavericks could be very tough in the playoffs.

Dirk Nowitzki remains a matchup nightmare at the four, stretching defenses with his unblockable jumper and killing smaller guys on the block. The rotation of Josh Howard, Michael Finley and Jerry Stackhouse at the 2-3 spots has been outstanding, and Jason Terry has stabilized the point since taking over for rookie Devin Harris.

Dallas looked for real last week when it went into Phoenix and beat the Suns, 119-113, behind 33 from Finley and 30 from Howard.

Sacramento Kings

Yep, you heard it here first. The Kings, losers of six of seven, will make some noise in the Western Conference playoffs.

The consensus seems to be that the Kings blew their chance at a title when Peja Stojakovic missed a wide-open 3-pointer and Sacramento lost Game 7 of the 2002 Western Conference finals to the Lakers in overtime. But don't heap the dirt on them just yet.

I know health is an ongoing issue, but on paper this team would appear to be even better than the near-miss editions of recent seasons. Brad Miller is a better player than Vlade Divac, and Cuttino Mobley is much more explosive than Doug Christie. Mike Bibby is still cold-blooded. And had Stojakovic participated, do you really think Quentin Richardson would have won the 3-point shooting contest on Saturday?

The biggest question mark, of course, is Chris Webber. And yet all he's been doing is hanging triple-doubles on teams night after night. Even if he is playing on one leg, the guy is a monster.

They may not have the most depth in the conference, but their starting five may be the best in the NBA. If they are even reasonably healthy come playoff time, look out.

The Lock

San Antonio Spurs

All of this conjecture — can Webber's knee last, will Dampier disappear again — is irrelevant, of course, if the Spurs are healthy. No one in either conference will beat them.

They are just too experienced, too deep and too good to be beaten four times in seven games.

If not for Derek Fisher's miracle catch-and-shoot with four-tenths of a second left in Game 5 of last year's Western Conference semifinals, the Spurs might be gunning for their third straight title this spring.

This is probably coach Gregg Popovich's best team yet and a strong argument for the melting pot. San Antonio is a 41-12 Benetton ad with players from France, Argentina, New Zealand, the Central African Republic (Romain Sato is on the injured list) and two from Slovenia.

Tim Duncan has been struggling with ankle, knee and hip injuries and still the Spurs roll on, thanks largely to their incredible backcourt.

The spectacular Manu Ginobli has become a star. Tony Parker is the most battle-tested 22-year-old point guard in league history. And neither figures to wear down in the playoffs because A.) they are both crazily fit and B.) the Spurs have the deepest backcourt in the NBA. Brent Barry, Devin Brown and Beno Udrih are all snipers who will punish teams for doubling Duncan.

Joining that five-headed backcourt on the perimeter is small forward Bruce Bowen, the NBA's premier lockdown defender who has rediscovered his 3-point stroke.

Complementing Duncan up front are 7-footer Rasho Nesterovic, big-game Bob Horry and the relentless Malik Rose.

All of this will add up to a Western Conference championship and NBA title No. 3 for San Antonio.

Kevin Hench is supervising producer of The Sports List on Fox Sports Net.

 

Thank you.