i didn't post that to suggest he was a bad player. you know i loved carlos. i only brought it up to suggest that his impact on this team in the regular season was not as pronounced as it seems to be remembered to be now. he wasn't with us at the start of last season and we got run as a world series contender. the big difference is jeff kent from the start of last season to the start of this season.
I know that you do, and that's why I thought that you were just using something that tailored your argument. Nevertheless, your attempt to lessen the impact he had on this team by using statistics that only tell half the story (at the very best) can be easily dismissed. Even with his dismal stretch to close the season, it can be argued that his impact was still greater than anyone else on the team. Is Carlos the player he was in the post-season? Probably not. Is he the player he was in the regular season? Again, probably not. But I would say that he is somewhere between those two, and when you account for everthing, that's probably one of the top five position players in the game. Drayton made the biggest mistake in Astros franchise history by not re-signing Carlos Beltran. He let 14 million dollars over seven years come between signing a top five player. How many times will the Astros get the chance to sign a top 5 player long term?
gunn -- your pointsw are all valid. they're just not relevant to what i was talking about before you entered the conversation. we were comparing the team at the start of last season to the team at the start of this season. the difference is largely Jeff Kent.
I think there are few other differences.... Ensberg was supposed to have a break out year based on his performance towards the end of the previous year...Our pitching staff outlook was different too...The Clemens outlook was that he could win 15 games with this team...he won a few more....now his outlook is that he is going to be hard pressed to repeat last year. Pettitte's outlook was that he was one of the best lefties in the game with the ability to pitch in big games....now he is coming off of elbow surgery. I think that Miller's outlook last year and Backes outlook this year are a wash...and thats being generous to Backe IMO. Roy is Roy...I think his outlook this yr is a little better than last for sure. The 5th starter situation hasnt really changed. While we KNOW that Lidge is a top 2 or 3 closer in the game now, we came into last season with the thought that we had a decent (not top 2 or 3) closer but a good set up guy in Lidge who could occasionally close if needed in a pinch. I also think there were higher expectations for our middle relief last year as opposed to this year. We also went into last year with a healthy Berkman...now he is coming off of a bad knee injury and lots of rehab. We also had Hidalgo starting the season in the OF as opposed to Lane or Palmiero...I dont think you can say that there are any higher hopes for Lane than there was for Doggy...especially defensively. We went into last year thinking Everett could help us offensively...hell, he batted 2nd. Now we know that he isnt much more of a good sacrafice bunter and can steal an occasional base...problem is, you cant steal first. Overall, the outlook HAS changed...and its a lot more than just not having Kent IMO.
I see all of your points, and I agree with them, except this one. All season until the injury, AE was a pleasant surprise in terms of non-Ausmusian production--especially after Jimy and his bunt-every-at-bat play calling were dismissed. AE wasn't the #2 hitter that Beltran was (who is?), but he was doing fairly well. The offensive duldrums in May-June were coming from Bagwell, Kent, Hidalgo, and Berkman and Ensberg, who were all slumping to various degrees, some more miserably than others.
I agree. I thought we got a lot more out of AE than I ever thought we'd get out of him at the plate. My expectations for Clemens haven't gone down from last season...if anything, they've improved. Roy is Roy. Somewhere between 18-21 wins. I agree that Miller/Backe is a wash. I don't have diminished expectations for Berkman AT THE PLATE because of his knee. Agree that my expectations for Hidalgo were greater than my expectations for Lane are now. To me...the big loss is Kent. No doubt about it. Losing a guy who provided over 100 RBI's last season is a big deal. BUT...i'm hopeful that they won't all slump at once for months on end like they did last year.
The guys article on the rankings is crap. I am still very optimistic. I do miss having Kent, but eh. It's in the past.
