[Official] Astros Offseason

I said we had no studs come out of the stable to rescue us last year. That’s not entirely true though. I got this hazy memory of a couple of SP’s doing well like Costanza and Walter. Too bad Walter is still hurt, he was lights out. I think Costanza had his 15 minutes though.

 

Hader always takes a bit to turn on the light switch or at least seems like it. Going off of memory here. If he’s out till April and we lose 2-3 games in the 9th. We prob lose those games if he’s pitching too. I really think th ninth is a wash. The 8th is a different story, but we have 53 pitchers to pick from. So…

 

The Astros have failed in these FA signings because they stuck in the veteran MLB pool seeking for older guys willing to take shorter term deals. Signing Imai is a great indicator in a change in direction.

 

Winning limits whining.

 

Just did another pareto analysis of the surplus value of Houston's current organizational roster against what they had in April 2017. The variance boils down to about 4 players, but it's a huge $ value, probably something on the order of $300m; basically the current version of the Astros has no counterpart to 2017 Carlos Correa, 2017 Alex Bregman, 2017 Frances Martes (who was MLB's #20 overall prospect at that time), and 2017 Kyle Tucker (who was MLB's #35 overall prospect at that time).

The Astros currently have some pretty valuable pieces, as Jeremy Pena, Carlos Correa, Yordan Alvarez, Cam Smith, Isaac Paredes, and Hunter Brown all have significant surplus value, but those players would align better with the sum of the 2017 versions of Altuve, George Springer, Dallas Keuchel, Lance McCullers, and the rest of the 2017 big league roster. Similarly, there are some good prospects currently in Houston's system (Neyens, Alvarez, etc.) but they align more closely with prospects from 2017 like Ramon Laureano, Daz Cameron, JD Davis, etc.

The shortest realistic path to closing the gap this season:

• Carlos Correa has a monster year that re-establishes him as an MVP level player into hid mid 30s.
• The Astros have a home run 2026 draft, getting 4 of the top ~80 prospects available.
• At least 2 prospects from their top tier (Neyens, Alvarez, Forcucci, Frey) break out into MLB Top 75 level prospects.
• All other core players stay healthy and produce relative to their projections.

Here was the mapping I put together in case anybody wants it:

Spoiler: 2017 to 2026 mapping

Carlos Correa=Jeremy Pena**
Alex Bregman=Carlos Correa**
Jose Altuve=Yordan Alvarez**
George Springer=Cam Smith**
Dallas Keuchel=Hunter Brown**
Lance McCullers Jr.=Mike Burrows**
Collin McHugh=Kai-Wei Teng**
Ken Giles=Bryan Abreu**
Yuli Gurriel=Isaac Paredes**
AJ Reed=Zach Dezenzo**
Joe Musgrove=Spencer Arrighetti**
Michael Feliz=Enyel De Los Santos**
Chris Devenski=Bryan King**
Evan Gattis=Cesar Salazar**
Brian McCann=Yainer Diaz**
Jake Marisnick=Zach Cole**
Max Stassi=Carlos Perez
Mike Fiers=Ryan Weiss**
Brad Peacock=Cristian Javier**
Will Harris=Steven Okert**
Colin Moran=Joey Loperfido**
Josh Reddick=Jake Meyers**
Marwin Gonzalez=Nick Allen**
Tyler White=Shay Whitcomb**
Tony Kemp=Cavan Biggio
James Hoyt=Miguel Ullolla**
Reymin Guduan=Bennett Sousa**
Kevin Chapman=Jayden Murray **
Preston Tucker=Riley Unroe*
Teoscar Hernandez=Brice Matthews**
Ashur Tolliver=Jason Alexander**
Luke Gregerson=Josh Hader**
Carlos Beltrán=Christian Walker**
Charlie Morton=Tatsuya Imai**
Norichika Aoki=Jose Altuve**
Brady Rodgers=Colton Gordon**
Andrew Aplin=Taylor Trammell**
Tony Sipp=Nate Pearson**
Jandel Gustave=Roddery Munoz**
David Paulino #54 MLB=A.J. Blubaugh**

Derek Fisher #83 MLB=Nehomar Ochoa
Forrest Whitley #84 MLB=Ryan Forcucci
Franklin Perez=Bryce Mayer
Ramon Laureano=Joseph Sullivan*
Daz Cameron=Xavier Neyens
Miguelangel Sierra=Caden Powell
Garrett Stubbs=Walker Janek*
Gilberto Celestino=Kevin Alvarez
J.D. Davis=Will Bush*
Yordan Alvarez=Ethan Frey
Freudis Nova=Albert Fermin
Cionel Perez=Ethan Pecko
Anibal Sierra=Nick Monistere
Jonathan Arauz=Alejandro Nunez
Ronnie Dawson=Lucas Spence*
Jake Rogers=Jase Mitchell
Riley Ferrell=Alimber Santa
Brendan McCurry=Jackson Nezuh
Jason Martin=Kenni Gomez
Stephen Wrenn=Anthony Huezo
Jorge Alcala=Jose Fleury
Framber Valdez=Alonzo Tredwell

 

Will have to start with at least one top 100 prospect (as dumb/arbitrary as those rankings are, it is always telling when a team has ZERO players).

Even though the 2017 team had less, they had just graduated (or in the process of graduating) quite a few…. And they still had some which helped facilitate depth/trades.

 

Absolutely - though the Imai contract has the chance to be a truly epic disaster also. If he does well, it's just a one year deal. If he does poorly or has TJS towards the end of the year, you're effectively paying $63MM for 1 year.

But to your point, if you don't want older declining veteran FAs and aren't willing to commit long-term to people, this is the only way it potentially works.

 

His contract is only $54M guaranteed and I’m sure heavily insured against TJS. It would be extraordinary if he missed 2 full seasons from injury, especially given his history of durability.

 

thanks for the hard work .

I also think the rotation right now is better than it was on paper to start 2017 . Guys like morton and fiers did better than expected, honestly we got verlander on a good deal too .

The bullpen is close, devenski and will harris were super solid. Ill take Hader over Giles, but am concerned about Hader's health .

I do think our farm is a little underrated now , and may have been overrated back then . I feel like your farm gets more looks the worse your MLB product is .

We definitely arent as strong at the top . MVP level altuve and young correa and bregman is a hell of a squad. Springer an amazing X-factor .

But i would say our farm system would look a lot better if bryce and cam played a whole year in the minors . Dana has rushed guys in a way that lunhow definitely did not ( keeping spring down for an extra year of control )

We will need our pitching to step up and for our top guys to perform at slightly above average levels.

This draft is definitely huge for DB . I do think our guys like matthews and cole have huge upsides and so our picture changes the second we can get above average MLB production on a rookie contract.

I dont think we were serious contenders going into 2017 , and so roster construction and age range is going to look alot different , and thus our surplus value story will be different.

Hopefully we keep an edge in drafting and developing now that we will finally have a good bonus pool this year.

I also really believe in Ullola , i hope we get to see him this year as a much needed shot of Velo to the pen , or as a starter .

 

My assumption is because top level pitching is even thinner this year and they no longer have the only guy on the staff that has been able to stay healthy consistently over the past 4-5 years.

Plenty of reasons for optimism, but the team is older and with less depth then they entered last year. Injuries will be harder to weather this year.

 

Maybe? I am not so confident because the signing of Imai is still a short term deal, if he is good - he is gone to LA or NY or BOS for $250,000,000 in less than a year.

 

Thanks -

I think the easiest way for the Astros to look in any window going forward as a contender is for two young players to really emerge -- one of them would be Smith becoming a 4+ WAR player this year, and either a young pitcher under long term control becoming a #2-3 starter or another player like Cole becoming an 800 OPS type hitter.

That would positionally fill needs for the Astros and just as importantly cost little money, allowing the Astros budgetary room over the next handful of years.

I am fairly confident the Astros have at least one All Star and at least 2-3 above average starters in their system that will emerge, but it could be 2+ years and the window could be closed by then.

 

My hypothetical was him being injured late in the season. If so, I believe he'd have met the innings threshold that increase the value of each year of his deal, and he'd miss all of 2027 and probably be available but on innings restrictions and who knows how good/available in 2028. Especially given that he'd be going into free agency, he'd likely be treated with kids' gloves to a degree in 2028.

 

Older, certainly. I'm not sure they have less depth. On the infield, they lost versatility in Dubon but added Correa. In the outfield, they have basically the same group they did last year. Pitching, they lost Framber but added Imai and Burrows along with a few people that emerged last year, though they lost others to TJS also. Overall, I think they have less positional versatility but should have more overall depth, I think.

 

Per Fangraphs the following players project to be top 13 position players or top 20 pitchers (require more depth) on this team in 2026 and are pre-arbitration and have at least 4 years of control.

Cam Smith, Zach Cole, Joey Loperfido, Zach Dezenzo, Mike Burrows, Spencer Arrighetti, Bryan King, A.J. Blubaugh, Jayden Murray, Kai-Wei Teng.

If at least 2 of the position players have a 2.5+ WAR/.750+ OPS season ( much depends on playing time)

and

Burrows or Arrighetti can get 150+ IP at the level of a good #3 SP or better.

and

1-2 of the other listed pitchers can contribute meaningful innings at better than MLB average

The next 3-5 years of this team will be bright.

The #1 near future priority needs to be finding a starting SS for 2028+ though. That will have a huge impact.

 

There is a lot of upside in this roster. A lot of it is related to health/age (Alvarez, Correa, Paredes, Walker, Altuve, Javier, hell maybe even McCullers), and a lot of it is related to young/unproven players (Diaz, Smith, Cole, Matthews, Imai, Burrows, Arrighetti, prospects). Last year was nearly a worst case scenario with injuries derailing established players and prospects not really taking big steps forward. This year will almost certainly bring better luck but it could be a mixed bag. Every year from here on out will be just waiting for Altuve to deteriorate. They have some stability with Brown, Pena, and bullpen depth, but a fully healthy/effective Alvarez, Paredes, and Correa would go a long way, and will reverberate beyond their own performances.

 

I don’t think Allen has a locked spot

We didn’t trade for him because we wanted him so much as just to dump Dubons salary

With Correa here we have our backup SS if needed. I know he doesn’t want to be the SS anymore, but he would be fine as the backup there, especially since Pena is the one infielder who really doesn’t need days off

Plus if Brice makes the team, at the very least he could get you out of a game at SS if Pena was injured

 

95-67 would not surprise me

But neither would 77-85

Team has a lot of talent, but it certainly isn’t deep in “sure things”

it’s a flawed roster. Any time you have to play someone in a position you really don’t want to just to get your best players on the field, it’s a roster that wasn’t put together well

I would be surprised if we get anything out of Hader this year which puts a lot of pressure on some guys to step up into more important roles

If we have an average year in terms of injuries, Imai and Burrows are left, Abreu locks down the 9th like he has the 8th, and King and a couple others are good, we could blow past 90 wins even without a great OF, but it could also turn south in a hurry

 

I know it goes against their beliefs on contracts but you don’t think there is any chance we break the mold here and sign him to a deal if he’s good? They’ve stated their desire to be active in the Japanese market and having a Japanese star makes it a lot easier to do that.

Of course that is reliant on him even wanting to stay.

 

100%
But if he is the closer we take a huge downgrade in the 8th