I asked Gemini what assets corelate most closely with bitcoin. It reiterates other things already said, but it's interesting that the silver corelation isn't recent, and has been associated with bitcoin price for quite a while: ---------- Based on recent market trends, the asset most strongly correlated with Bitcoin (outside of crypto-native assets) is high-growth tech stocks, specifically those in the Nasdaq 100 index and QQQ ETF. These equities often move in tandem with Bitcoin due to shared sensitivity to macroeconomic liquidity and risk-on sentiment. Key Assets Correlated with Bitcoin: Nasdaq 100 (QQQ): Since 2020, Bitcoin has shown a consistently positive, often strong, correlation with tech-heavy, high-growth, or speculative equities. Silver: A 2022 CFA Institute report found that silver has historically shown a higher correlation with Bitcoin compared to other traditional commodities or gold, due to similar volatility. Global Liquidity (M2 Money Supply): Research indicates that Bitcoin's price movements are strongly aligned with global M2 supply, suggesting that expansionary monetary policy (money printing) drives its price, particularly in the Eurozone. MicroStrategy (MSTR): While this is a stock, it behaves like a "de facto Bitcoin ETF" because the company holds massive amounts of Bitcoin, creating a direct, high correlation of 0.95, according to FP Markets. While Bitcoin is often called "digital gold," its short-term correlation with actual gold has been historically low or negative, as investors tend to treat Bitcoin as a high-risk tech asset rather than a safe-haven asset. ---------- My future doesn't depend on bitcoin, so as an observer I really enjoy watching it act in ways that aren't obviously.predictable. The original paradigm I saw pitched for it in the 2010's was a gold surrogate, which it vert clearly is not.
A little over six months ago I moved a lot of money into a gold ETF with the rationale that Trump's economic policies would destabilize other markets. So far, that has worked out pretty well and as I have been monitoring gold prices during that time they do seem to move in opposition to bitcoin.
This is a newsletter from Mark Moss that perfectly describes the strategy I am pursuing with my bitcoin stack. So far I am only using leverage to fund a small part of my yearly expenses (mostly just fun stuff after all the essentials are accounted for), but I imagine this will grow over time as we transition into retirement.
BTC and gold traded almost identically in this spooky 90-120 day lag for several years. It's only starting around October 2025 did they so violently decouple. This asymmetry is the opportunity, BTW. The fact the market does not know bitcoin has the same (but better) monetary properties as gold is where you can capitalize. Zoom out and look at gold priced in btc over time and you will see who to bet long on.
Bitcoin tests $63,000 in 'extreme fear'; full-blown capitulation yet to come: analysts question for Crypto devotees: it this attributable to the threat of agentic AI coming up with more attractive / efficient / cost effective alternatives to the current lineup of cryptos ?
