[Official] Astros Offseason

I’m just not worried about pitching unless people start getting hurt again. The Astros know how to identify untapped pitching potential. Yusei looked like a cy young candidate when he was here.

We need one of the young guys to be above average and the another to be serviceable. I’m betting on Cam being above average and Cole to do enough to make up for his K’s.

 

I’ve got a really good feeling about Burrows. Hopefully he stays healthy.

 

Burrows has a chance to be really good. I hope he can give them 175 ip.

 

It is interesting that most of their “oops’” come in longer, higher dollar contracts.

 

I just don’t think this front office is very good at evaluating free agents. Maybe nobody consistently is. But I’d rather Houston manage their organization to make it so they never have to rely on 1st or 2nd tier free agents to try and field a contending roster.

 

Completely agree. This is a previous regime, but Carlos Lee was the wrong player; whiffed on Beltran. Big whiff. They don’t hit on FA well.

 

Barring any moves, do the Astros already have their 13 hitters locked in?


Diaz
Salazar
Walker
Altuve
Peña
Correa
Alvarez
Meyers
Smith
Dezenzo
Allen
Loperfido
Paredes

 

Shorter cheaper contracts really can't be "oops" because you just ignore them and move on. And Walker and Abreu were 3 year deals which is pretty short overall. They haven't really missed on a destructive long-term deal like a Pujols or Rendon or whatnot. Their misses have, in the grand scheme, been pretty minor. Even McCullers, which was a disaster, was a cheaper deal per year for a pitcher of his caliber - it baked in him missing about half of the contract.

 

I think there’s a very real chance Smith is optioned to start the season. I also think there’s a good chance that Matthews makes the roster. Basically the roster has 10/13 spots set:
C (2): Diaz, Salazar
IF (6): Walker, Altuve, Pena, Correa, Paredes, Allen
OF (5): Alvarez, Meyers, TBDx3
3 out of the following 6 players will likely make the roster: Smith, Cole, Dezenzo, Loperfido, Matthews, Trammell.

It would not shock me if Cavan Biggio or Riley Unroe end up on the roster as well. They can both play LF and if one of them has a scorching spring and the other young guys don’t seize the job then I could see Biggio or Unroe being given a spot. I don’t think any of the other NRI have much of a chance barring a slew of injuries. Whitcomb is on the 40 man so he has some chance but I think he’s a step below the other guys in the pecking order. I will be mildly surprised if Cole doesn’t make the roster because I think Houston is ok with rostering him even if it’s in a bench role.

 

Cole is presumably in the mix over Dezenzo or Loperfido, I would think.

 

Imagine if all three break out, or one of them takes Cam's spot. Baseball is baseball.

 

I would bet on Cole ahead of Loperfido and Dezenzo may be ahead of him too.

I'd like to see Matthews over Allen but unlikely.

 

I think (hope) that a close call will go against Cam, creating an excuse to start him in the minors and get the extra year of control eventually.

 

Yep. There are 2 elements to it in my opinion. First there’s like you said a huge incentive to send him down to gain another year of control. But also there’s the risk that another extended stint of struggles in the majors could be a big setback to his confidence and development. If he’s not going to succeed out of the gate, his best path is to go down to aaa and show he’s deserving of another extended look; that’s a very subjective opinion so I recognize it could be wrong and sending him down could just as easily destroy his confidence, but the way I see it is that sending him down is the best option for both sides unless he’s gonna be a star from opening day.

 

Sure enough—it felt like I was forgetting someone.

 

I wonder if Cam is cold in ST and he goes to AAA, who is more likely: Brice or Dezenzo or Loperfido (2 needed)? I lean Loperfido and Dezenzo, but it also depends on how hot Brice is in ST.

 

If I had to guess today, I think the opening day position player roster will be:

SS Pena
DH Paredes
LF Alvarez
3B Correa
2B Altuve
1B Walker
C Diaz
RF Cole
CF Meyers
Bench: Matthews, Loperfido, Salazar, Allen

I mentioned this yesterday, but Dezenzo, Trammell, Biggio, and Unroe all have legit chances to make the roster. Matthews is going to have to play well this spring to make the roster but he has a lot to offer as a bench player with his speed, power, and defensive versatility.

 

This is unrealistic.

 

Cole?

 

Nah. I define a 2nd tier free agent as one who gets a $50M-$120M contract. Seattle is projected as one of the 5 best teams in baseball and their roster only has 1 2nd tier free agent (Naylor), who they easily could have not signed and instead traded one of their elite prospects for a good 1B (or played one of their IF prospects at 1B); they don’t have any 1st tier free agents on their roster. The only 2nd tier FA on the Orioles is Tyler O’Neill, who’d they be better off without, and they’re a legit contender; they do have 1 1st tier guy in Alonso. In the NL, Atlanta doesn’t have any 1st or 2nd tier free agents on their roster. Neither do the Phillies.

There really aren’t that many players in those tiers, and at first glance they have pretty universally been bad values.