Amen Extension

On paper he was Fred's backup, but in reality he still mostly played off-ball. It just ended up with Jalen Green handling the ball most of the time.

 

I think he can maybe be a consistent 38-40% shooter on his unguarded shots from midrange while the defense is ignoring him and leaving him wide open

as for his 3 point shot, that thing is so broken and busted it will require a parting of the red sea, resurrection from the dead, or turning a piece of bread and a fish into a whole fish fry for 5000 people type of miracle just to be passable

that 37% on corner threes last season was on a sample size of only 53 attempts…the sample size of him being horrific is basically his entire life

 

I would rather keep Amen than Sengun for a few reasons.

But regarding the shooting, I do think that Sengun has a better chance of becoming a decent 3pt shooter. For one, as bad as he is he's been a better shooter than Amen. Alpis form is better and also as a big he'll never be expected to shoot threes off the dribble. He just needs to be a reliable catch and shoot option.

Amen, as a ball handler, will absolutely need to pose some threat to shoot from distance off the dribble. This is why right now when he's dribbling against set defenses the play usually is doa. As bad as he is in catch and shoot, Teams fear him pulling from 3 even less (if that's possible) when he's got a live dribble.

I've looked at a lot of bad, awful shooters. Guys who shot threes that you'd never actually want shooting threes. Amen is worse than all of them. He

 

Really good breakdown of the Amen situation and why he isnt worth a max extension till he can shoot.

 

The idea that Amen was going to come into the league and immediately learn to be a jump shooter was always fairy tale thinking, but people are giving up on him too soon. Some horrible shooters do figure it out, but it almost always takes years to get there, usually at least three, and it's not even that rare for it to click after a decade or more, as we've seen with guys like Rajon Rondo and Blake Griffin.

Of course if it takes into his 30s that would be outside his prime years, so we'd better hope it doesn't take him that long. But I wouldn't be that shocked to see him get there sometime between age 25-28 after some years of treading water and some years of gradual improvement.

 

Thats the thing, Ive looked at tons of bad shooters and none are comparable to Amen in that regard.

First Rondo and Griffin started their careers almost 20 years ago when shooting wasnt as important...neither took a lot of threes to start off with. Amen early on has shot a higher volume than both.

That said, Rondo never had a season shooting in the teens. Amen is working on his second season doing that. By time three point shooting became more important and their volume picked up to around Amen's they were much better shooters than he is now.

Ive looked at a lot of guys who started off as bad shooters and became decent or good and considering all factors Amen stands out as truly horrible.

Last season looked like he was headed in the right direction, but last year he didnt handle the ball nearly as much. Which is the other thing....Griffin and others like Sengun dont have to worry as much about being able to shoot off thr dribble. They dont have to worry about getting a screen and defenders always going under because they are mostly catch amd shoot.

Amen the "pg" trying to run and offense will need to be able to shoot off thr dribble. Not just catch and shoot corner threes....although at this point even that would be a revelation.

Basically, Amen has a much longer way to go as a shooter than guys you are comparing him to. Id say Amen becoming a sustained just 30% three point shooter as a lead ball handler is pretty low.

 

If there's one argument I'm most sympathetic to regarding "Amen is a wing" it would be that he struggles with three pointers above the break. As you said, if you can't hit those off the dribble it's hard to play a point guard these days. However, I'm much more optimistic about his ability to hit open corner threes at, say, 33%. If he can do that, he's already basically doing everything Jimmy Butler could/can do, except he's much more athletic and isn't a toxic teammate.

 

What's your expected return for Sengun?

Also, what's your roster look like around Amen?

 

No idea, but Id love to get Naz Reid. Minnesota may bite as a good trio with him, AE and Randle. Portland probably doesnt want to trade Clingan but id like him too. Or Brooke Lopez... Doesnt have to be a star just a guy who can provide real rim protection and can shoot.

Amen surrounded by all shooters most of the time he's on the court.

 

and he greatly improved his FT shooting from 70% last year to 80% this year that's 10% improvement in 1 year

 

Does playing him out of position have anything at all to do with his inability to shoot? I really don't buy that.

 

Very little to do with it (of course it's easier to shoot against people who are slower at closing out), but on the more impactful side his decreased midrange efficiency, volume of defensive impact (not defensive efficiency), steals, blocks and rebounds all have to do with playing him out of position. This is not even taking into consideration subjective things like confidence and momentum. It would be devious to bring all this about and then use that as your tactic to lowball him.

Playing out of position has to have a materially different outcome for the player and at the outset it's most likely negative.

 

can you say a healthier and younger version of Ben Simmons

 

Ben Simmons had a WAY better handle and court vision.

 

him having to learn how to play as primary PG/playmaker

 

Nope, Ben Simmons had an actual PG skill set just without the shooting. Amen doesn't, he actually doesn't have a comp. I can't find a single player who is both top 1% generational athlete AND a generationally bad shooter at the same time. And the rest of his offensive skills aren't even average. It now makes sense why 2 of the most athletic players ever were playing highshool kids in some sketch ass competition instead of college or the G-league, they're not actually that skilled at all.

 

I can't either. There's really no comparison. I can't understand (and I've said this before) someone who trained so much couldn't develop just a competent jumper.

 

Amen, Nembhard, Tari, Jabari, KAT Bench: Reed, McConnell, McBride, Rookie 26 1st round pick that maybe replaces Nembhard in the starting lineup, Adams, Capella, fillers Also sets us up for additional trades with picks, FVV, and filler.

 

It's insane. Whoever was in charge of the twins development has to be banned from coaching youth basketball completely. Usually people with that level of talent (at least back when we all learned by PLAYING outside at the park all our lives) have an instinctive natural aptitude to a certain level - Jalen Green's a great example of athleticism carrying you most of the way, and that fooling draft pundits that he was a future league leading scorer. Amen's WAY more genetically advantaged, faster, stronger, not sure if he actually jumps higher but he jumps faster and more of them in the same space of time and his lateral movement in the air sometimes looks faked he goes that far and yet there's zero touch. There's no flair, there's no finesse with his hands around the basket, there's no grace to his shot at all. It shouldn't be possible.

 

(I know, I know, highlights aren't representative, but he does occasionally pull out something amazing like this.)