Is the Chinese economy about to implode?

back in 2000, this was on the NYTimes best seller list

since then,

• while China's debt has increased ~~~200%, its GDP has increased ~~ 700%.
• Shadow banking, aka underground banking, has continued to increase, from ~25% of the nation's total outstanding debt, to the current ~ 40%

this economic evolution has prompted Bloomberg's Chief Economist, in 2020, to write this book on the Chinese economic evolution

since then China’s growth has slumped, the real estate market has gone from boom to bust, a crackdown on entrepreneurs has hammered confidence, export controls from the US have
blocked access to crucial technologies, and anyone betting on China’s continued outperformance has lost a lot of money.

 

China's economy had been mired in a deflation, then came Trump 2.0's ill-conceived tariff war.
effectively, it will amount to an injection of a life line / economic stimulant for the PRC.

as a means to counter / avert the ill-conceived tariff,
China presents a viable economic option for the EU, Canada, So America and other former US trading partners​

 

according to this book

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, the most telling evidence of China inducing more domestic demand rests on 1111, aka singles day in the PRC

for 2025,

• on Nov 11, singles day in China, online sales generated revenue of ~ US$ 238 billion
• Prime Day 2025 sales set a new summer record, $24.1 billion
  [*] Black Friday 2025 online sales generated revenue of ~ $11.7 billion

​

 

Trump 1.0's ill-conceived Tariffs prompted China to accelerate the implementation of its one-belt-one-road strategy, aimed at
enhancing trade / economic connectivity across Asia, Europe, and Africa through infrastructure investment and cooperation.



some 8 months after Trump 2.0's self-declared liberation day, initiating another trade war,

China's trade surplus tops record $1 trillion.


its one-belt-one-road initiatives are paying off---continuing its impressive growth as of Nov 2025---
despite 28% fall in shipments to US,

Why Chinese EV sales have exploded in Europe,
more than doubling their market share there.​

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the Chinese ecnomy had been sputtering during the COVID shut down, then it received this injection of economic steroid

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Bullet trains, EV and now robotics Robotics

Robotics-fueled automation has been transforming
China’s industrial landscape​

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Demand for robots is booming in China. China’s robotics market reached an estimated $47 billion in 2024 and is projected to grow 23 percent annually through 2028. Industrial robots make up a significant portion of that demand. In 2024, China installed 295,000 new industrial robots—more than every other country in the world combined. As of 2023, China’s factories used 470 robots per every 10,000 workers, second only to South Korea (1012 robots per 10,000 workers) and Singapore (770 per 10,000 workers).


In China and abroad, robotics adoption has traditionally been highest in industries involving 1) repetitive tasks, 2) a predictable physical environment, 3) large production volumes, 4) a need for high precision, and 5) the ability to afford high rates of capital expenditure.


A decade ago, China relied on imported robots for nearly three quarters of its total demand. Today, China produces 57 percent of its industrial robots domestically. This shift reflects the explosive growth of China’s domestic robotics manufacturing industry in recent years. In 2024, China’s output of industrial robots grew by 14 percent year-over-year and brought in an estimated $33.4 billion in revenue. This growth rate doubled in 2025, reaching 28 percent year-over-year.

In 2024, China’s share of global industrial robotics exports was 16.7 percent. This is small in absolute terms, but a major leap from 5.9 percent of global market share in 2020.

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according to this professor of Economics, at the London School of Economics, Trump's tariffs and ban on
NVDA chip shipments to China have been a gift to the PRC. Accelerated EV exports and domestic chip development
will lead to more jobs

.​

 

but he won't do anything to China?

Rocket River

 

The idea of the Chinese economy imploding reminds me of the at leat 50 years that conservative /libertarians have said that about Scandinavia. problem is that wit increased international travel and the internet it keeps getting harder to keep Americans ignorant.