[Official] Astros Offseason

Quoted for truth.

All of Luhnow's hard work is now done with and it's up to Dana to rebuild the org. Fortunately this isn't a total rebuild, Dana just has to make some good decisions to enhance what Luhnow/Click did. Minus the Parades/Kikuchi deals Dana's work has been very underwhelming. IMHO

 

Come on. Was this not looked at during the season last year? Did he need surgery and opt not to have it?

 

It depends on which Walker they get.

In the second half, in a large sample size - he had an OPS over 800 if I remember right.

He was hurt to start the season with the groin and then was mediocre/bad for the rest of the first half.

The advanced numbers show the bat speed was the same as prior seasons as were a number of other measures.

I don't think that Walker is guaranteed anything - but I think there is likely a 50% chance he is back to a 780-820 OPS guy at first base with a very good glove.

 

To clarify, I didn't say it very well, but the universal rover was Paredes. If you trade Walker, Paredes would be in the lineup at 1B, so he can't just fill in for all the off days off all the other players. So now for those 120 games of off days/injuries/etc all over the infield, instead of having Paredes there, you'd have random backup scrubs.

The downgrade is losing those ABs from Walker and adding them to our random backups. In exchange for saving a bit of money and adding a backup catcher with no timeline to return - the Braves just said yesterday that they aren't sure when he'll be back, so I doubt the Astros would know in that scenario. And given that they signed another catcher, it might not be a good indication. And to play him, you're benching a fairly similar player in Diaz, so you don't solve his "can't get the bats in the lineup everyday" problem that IdAstrosFan has been focused on with the need to trade someone. I don't know how this helps the team at all.

 

I really, really dislike how Espada used the bullpen *with* a healthy Josh Hader. This year is going to be rough.
We should not count on Hader at all.
It is my understanding that this injury happened at a point late in the season where they hoped non surgery options would work since even an off-season procedure would mean missing 2026. Is that right, or am I mistaken?

 

I think more is being made about Buster Olney’s Josh Hader report than it really is. If the Astros thought Hader wasn’t progressing or still felt pain, they would have shut him down from throwing and aggressively pursued relievers to replace him. Neither have happened.

It could be serious, but it might just be part of a cautious ramp up to the season.

 

From Olney's slightly longer, slightly more informative article that he summarized with that tweet:

Hader has been playing catch on flat ground, throwing lightly, according to Houston general manager Dana Brown. But Hader has not been throwing full bullpens in the manner that many pitchers are in early February. Veteran pitchers often shape their training programs in a way to preserve themselves for the regular season, and Hader is still in the process of assessing when he can ramp up his work.

 

Thanks for providing the added context from Olney’s article. If Hader was feeling any pain in his shoulder, he wouldn’t be throwing at all.

 

Overly broad and false. Biggest moves since 2022:

Jose Abreu - a Jim crane and Bagwell decision. Nothing to do with Dana Brown.

Christian Walker - under Dana Brown. I supported it at the time, as did the vast majority here. Care to state your position at the time?

Josh Hader: under Dana brown but a Jim Crane move most believe.

Trade for JV from Mets: under Brown, but a Jim Crane move most believe.

Kikuchi trade: widely panned as overpay at the time, turn out to be shrewd and highly effective.

Tucker for Paredes, wesnewski and cam smith: thievery by Brown

Trade for Correa: dead ass opportunistic win.

Trade for burrows: I highly support, as does most of this board. You?

Signing of Tatsuya Imai: no brainier dead ass win with the roster we have. You disagree?

signed Caratini in 2023: easily a win. I’m sure there are other moves I should have covered

Conclusion: you should be a lot more angry at Jim Crane decisions than Dana Brown. But Jim is the owner and presided over the golden era of Astros baseball, so people can’t bring themselves to both (1) revere Jim Crane as a owner, (2) and have valid criticism of decisions he has made.

Dana Brown came after the second title, so he doesn’t get the golden era vibes protection. But objectively, he has made good decisions.

 

I hope you are right, but Astros fans have been legitimately conditioned to expect that anytime there is any even vaguely negative news around a pitcher’s arm, it means they are about to not pitch for 12-18 months if ever again.

 

JV to the tigers for $13M, after deferrals the AAV on that is gonna be less than $10M, great deal for Detroit.

 

So every “good” move is Dana and everyone you deem questionable was a “Crane” call?

 

Where Astros go to die

 

Colorado put Kris Bryant on the 60 day IL today, I didn’t know teams could do that before the start of the season. That means any 40 man roster limitations Houston had over the offseason are no longer affecting them since they have at least 3 players they can put on the 60 day IL in Blanco, Wesneski, and Walter.

 

This helps the team because every team will start a backup catcher 20-25% of the time, the Astros have a starting catcher who has regressed each and every year he has been in MLB, the current gap between the starter and backup catcher is an absolute chasm.

Murphy was one of only 17 catchers last year with 2 or better fWAR and has the 8th most fWAR among catchers over the past 3 seasons.

He is a legitimate MLB player who drastically raises the catching floor on this team, has a career 111 wRC+ which is 106 over the past 3 seasons so adds a legitimate bat to the position to allow Diaz to DH or backup 1B.

If he's healthy which would obviously need to be determined before any trade.

Where is this team now if Yainer has a serious injury?

 

It depends on how much you value defense but in terms of projection, swapping Salazar with Diaz only costs them about 1 win, because Salazar projects to have significant defensive value. Diaz’s value is in his upside, but his median 2026 outcome is not that great; an average bat with well below average catching defense, to total as an average starting catcher. Salazar has a low offensive ceiling but he does not strike out much. He projects to have a bat about as effective overall as Mauricio Dubon’s.

I’m not saying Houston couldn’t stand to upgrade or that losing Diaz wouldn’t hurt, but I can understand why the Astros haven’t made it a priority.

 

I’m well aware of the Astros medical drama in recent seasons. People deserved to get fired, and they finally were this offseason.

However, if a pitcher is feeling any pain in his arm, elbow or shoulder, his organization would shut him down from throwing until the pain subsides. According to Olney’s report, that’s not the case with Hader.

It could turn into something more serious, but based on the initial report, I wouldn’t go into full-blown panic mode, yet. If Hader was not throwing at all, I would be very concerned.

 

I don't think it's as much that he's not progressing but that they talked about him trying to be ready for the playoffs and now 6 months later, he's still not throwing normally. Either they lied back in September (very possible) or things did not go according to plan.

 

Saw this coming once Framber joined Hinch