VORP is a bad stat for this day and age. EPM takes into account opponent and teammate quality. Reed 0.9 Okogie 0.1 For the Rockets, teammate quality may be a bigger issue than the opponent quality as Amen, Durant, and Sengun are really good. Net Rating has been used a lot to show JSJ should start over various players. Reed, Eason, Okogie, and Adams all have higher Net Ratings as a starter than on the bench, supporting that teammate quality is a bigger issue than opponent quality for Net Rating for the Rockets.
You are making assumptions as to who they are going against because you don't like what objective reality tells you is happening on the court since it goes against what you wish was true or what you assume is true. Starters play against bench units, bench units play against starters. There isn't clear cut shift changes in the NBA. When your eye test tells you something completely different than what the numbers say, it just means your eye test is dogshit.
It's certainly not the end all, be all, but VORP is well in line with what the rest of the metrics say AND it was the metric cited most last year by the Jalen fanbois, so that's why I used it.
Maybe I’m wrong, but i think they are leaning much more heavily on Amen on the ball. 30 assists in the last 3 games is an indication. I’m very happy with his progression as an initiator. Reed and Jabari have been really inconsistent as shooters lately or Amen would be averaging double digit assists. I think Amen is our long-term Point whatever.
Well kind of. Starters play more minutes against starters, but it certainly isn’t a very telling statistic. There are a lot of bs statistics that need to be taken with a grain of salt. +- is one of the worst.
With Reed off the court, the Rockets are leaning more into Amen on ball lately, and the Rockets offense is getting worse. Amen is getting better rapidly on the on-ball stuff. The problem is that the Rockets are having issues with Amen off the ball. Defenses are choosing to try to take away KD and Sengun by sagging off non-shooters. If one is an Amen-only fan that wants Amen on the ball all the time, this isn't an issue. For Rockets fans, the offense getting worse should be concerning. The offenses with Reed and without Amen have nosedived much worse. That is mostly on Reed sucking lately. Shooting is important. For the season, the offense with Reed without Amen and the offense with Amen without Reed are basically identical in quality despite Reed sucking hard lately. If Reed doesn't play better, the Rockets are done. He's just been killing the Rockets chances too often lately. Rockets have become a very thin team with FVV out, Adams out, and Reed sucking. Reed, JSJ, DFS....one or more of those guys are going to need to start shooting better than they have lately.
My eye test says it's just guys missing shots they should make. Amen would also have a lot more assists if our 3P shooting hadn't been so bad lately. Statistically, we are shooting 31% from three in the month of January. Through December, we shot 40% from three.
With Reed on the bench, my eyeball test says Durant is shooting more threes and significantly harder threes lately. Stats say Durant, JSJ, and Reed (the three guys that carry most of the three-point load) have increased their number of tight 3 point attempts by about 50% in January. JSJ is just shooting poorly lately on top of increased difficulty. Durant's problems are mostly quality-based on stats. Also, the worse shooters are shooting more threes. Basically, the shooters getting covered more, but still having to shoot is a result of non-shooters not being guarded. Tari playing has been really important in making the offense easier as Durant smothered and JSJ sucking is all the shooting the Rockets have without him when Reed is on the bench. Reed is shooting worse, but the quality has been tougher. Him being averagish shooting instead of 45% is a big reason for the drop to 31%.
I don't think it's the quality of shots he's taking that is the problem, I think he's banged up. Last night he was icing his right knee every moment he wasn't in the game and all of his shots were short. He's not on the injury report, so it must not be too serious, but when you don't get the lift you need on your jumpshot, you miss shots you should make. IMO that's why he couldn't hit **** last night.
Dude using his eye test to conjure injuries while insisting we use Reed Sheppard’s BPM in 7 seconds of total playing time versus Anthony Edwards, Jamal Murray, Luka Doncic, or Shai Gilgeous Alexander.
Anybody who still believes Amen could be a long-term solution at PG in the current NBA environemnt should either check their eyesight or scan their brain tbh...
Seeing that a player is icing down a knee all game long isn't similar to those who watch games and think the opposite of what every metric says is happening. There's nothing wrong with "eye test" when it conforms to objective reality. It's only a problem when it disagrees with objective reality.
I’m a 6’2 white guy, I’m rooting for Reed but the way you’re interpreting numbers and gate keeping is weird. His minutes sample is objectively diluted and doesn’t tell us how he performs against the top tier teams or the best isolation hunters. He’s not on the court often in those situations. If you can observe him on the bench, I can too. We’re all guessing how he’s going to do against a playoff competition level. Me, you, VORP, EPM. Even assuming a slight drop off or adding an adjusted opponent quality metric is guessing. It can go from working to not working at all against better competition. The coaches watching him defend in practice every day against his own teammates is data we don’t have access to. I’m deeply sorry but only using the VORP of a bench player with a carefully curated minutes sample to make big decisions ain’t it.
The numbers don't root for anyone, they just are what they are. It's funny how year after year there's always some who get upset by the numbers not agreeing with their narratives. Also, it's not just one metric... they all say the same thing... but if course you'll stick to your narrative anyway it is what it is.
This game against SA is big for Reed. Amen is going to have a tough time scoring in the paint and will probably be playing the dunker spot more than usual. It will be a real challenge if he is running point against Castle. A very good test for Reed, indeed. Reed for three, indeed. I’ll let Hollins have it for free.
A team is always going to need a layer that can be the floor general. GSW didn’t have a traditional. Oh but they did have Steph and draymond who can facilitate the ball and can be trusted with the rock in their hand without turning it over. We don’t have that with Amen. He picks up his dribble when the pressure ramps up on ball. Reed does this too. Durant is probabaly our best ball handler. We see terrible turnovers. Boston didn’t win a championship until they went out and patched up their pg situation with White. That model with Smart as the primary pg got exposed against GSW inthe finals
I honestly think it’s a real debate given how well Amen has played recently. I don’t think it looked good through the first two months, although there were flashes. Since then he’s started to change my mind a little. I still don’t believe u can be a lead on-ball initiator without a decent jump shot, but Amen is definitely getting better at getting his teammates open looks, which is a very important skill for the on-ball role.
