[Official] Paolo Banchero as a ORL Magic thread

mario_v · Feb 4, 2025

What’s going on with banchero? He’s on that Julius Randle trajectory.

zeeshan2 · Jan 2, 2026

It’s amazing how much has changed in three years. Think back to the 2022 NBA All-Star Game: Three precocious young point guards — the Atlanta Hawks’ Trae Young, the Memphis Grizzlies’ Ja Morant and the Charlotte Hornets’ LaMelo Ball — made the squad and played on the same team in Cleveland.

In each case, the future for both player and team seemed bright, but fast forward to 2025, and that’s not the case. Young’s Hawks made the Eastern Conference finals in 2021, Ball’s Hornets won 43 games in 2022 and Morant’s Grizzlies were the second seed in the Western Conference in consecutive seasons. Unbelievably, none of the three have won a playoff series since 2022. This doesn’t look like the year the streak will end, with the Hawks and Grizzlies in Play-In territory and Ball’s Hornets again headed for the draft lottery.

Similarly, all three have seen their career trajectories go sideways, even if it’s happened more in slow motion than in one rapid swoon. Injuries have plagued all three, but unserious defense and stalled development trajectories are also to blame. Ball has been the topic of trade rumors and even a rumored trade demand; Young is a potential free agent this summer whose team has made no serious move toward extending his contract; Morant’s unreliability was a key factor in Memphis’ offseason reset, and he’s already been suspended by his own team this season.

There might be other individual players who have been more disappointing this season, but as a class, the Southern point guard trio has moved into a league of its own. As a result, those three top my All-Disappointment Team for 2025-26.

My squad is a list of players who have done the most to fall short of our hopes and expectations, however misplaced they might have been. While I focused more on significant players on big contracts, I sprinkled in a few middle-class guys and developmental cases as well.

We’re barely one-third of the way into an 82-game season. Things can and do change, and inevitably, some players will play themselves off this list. But as 2026 begins, here are the envelopes. (Stats as of Wednesday afternoon.)

NBA All-Disappointment Team:

Ja Morant

LaMelo Ball

Trae Young

Darius Garland

Paolo Banchero

Draymond Green

Jared McCain

Herb Jones

Cam Johnson

Guerschon Yabusele

Indiana’s Youth

Click to expand...

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6930954/2026/01/01/nba-season-2025-2026-disappointments/

wlekfjv923n · Jan 2, 2026

zeeshan2 said: ↑

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6930954/2026/01/01/nba-season-2025-2026-disappointments/
Click to expand...

Things can change quick in the NBA. A second year averaging 20 PPG doesn't auto translate to a superstar. Young players regress all the time. Amen developing a jump shot and becoming all-NBA is not a given. YOu just appreciate what you have right now, and hope these players have the love for the game to keep improving

daywalker02 · Jan 3, 2026

Hasn't he dealt with moderately severe injuries two years in a row?

wlekfjv923n said: ↑

Things can change quick in the NBA. A second year averaging 20 PPG doesn't auto translate to a superstar. Young players regress all the time. Amen developing a jump shot and becoming all-NBA is not a given. YOu just appreciate what you have right now, and hope these players have the love for the game to keep improving
Click to expand...

daywalker02 · Jan 8, 2026

zeeshan2 · Jan 13, 2026

Paolo Banchero
Before the Orlando Magic melted down in Toronto a few weeks ago, Paolo Banchero spent most of the game looking like a superstar. He finished with 23 points, 15 rebounds, and 10 assists. Late in the fourth quarter, Magic play-by-play announcer Dante Marchitelli called it “a breakout performance.” Offensively, for the most part, it was. Last Wednesday night in Brooklyn, he did it again: 30 points on 19 shots, 14 rebounds, six assists, and a game-winning 3-pointer in overtime.

In both contests, Paolo was pretty efficient and did a good job balancing composure and aggression, rarely trying to jam a square peg in a round hole. It made you wonder why every Magic game couldn’t feature a dominant amalgamation of Banchero’s power and vision, with relentless trips to the free throw line and some of the smartest passes you’ll ever see from someone his size.

Those lofty expectations are a major reason why Banchero’s fourth season has been so disheartening. His talent should punch him through as a virtual lock to make the All-Star team, but he is instead the scapegoat of an injury-plagued disappointment that’s fighting to stay out of the play-in. Some of that blame directed at Banchero’s numbers is fair. Some of it’s the understandable adjustment to a dramatically different role that would like him to turn less into more.

For the Magic to reach whatever their ceiling is with this group, Banchero must cede the floor to a growing list of teammates—Franz Wagner, Desmond Bane, Jalen Suggs, Anthony Black, and (dare I say) Tristan da Silva—who can handle a bigger piece of the pie. An offense that leans too hard on any one player will succumb to its own predictability, which translates to that player being asked to sacrifice for the greater good before he gets to really spread his wings as an individual. That’s a very, very hard thing to do, and Banchero’s willingness to make an earnest effort for most of this season should be lauded.

“I feel good,” Banchero recently said after his return from a groin strain that sidelined him for 10 games. “I’ve just been, [as] I said earlier in the season, trying to pick my spots and just play the role that I’m trying to, being asked to play for this team and just be that consistent force on both sides of the ball, whether it’s guarding somebody or making the extra pass.”

Banchero’s true usage rate is down 11.5 percent from where it was last year, one of the largest drops in the league. That’s fine, if not a good sign for Orlando. But something still isn’t clicking quite like it should. If you’re going to reduce the weight on an All-Star talent’s shoulders and make a genuine effort to surround him with more sensible weapons, the onus is then on him to take advantage of the spacing and simplified looks they help create. Instead, Banchero’s true shooting percentage has remained largely the same—and well below league average.

On one hand, it’s been encouraging to see Banchero shift so many of his long 2s to the paint. Cutting down the pull-up 3s is a plus, too. But on the other hand, not only is his effective field goal percentage at an all-time low, but of the 251 players who’ve logged at least 500 minutes this season, Banchero ranks 246th in halfcourt shot making (which measures a player’s efficiency while adjusting for how difficult their field goal attempts are). Averaging the fewest shots of his career is not alarming. He’s making better decisions and creating opportunities for teammates against defenses that load up to slow him down. But he could still be averaging the most points of his career, or somewhere near it. Maybe it still happens after Wagner and Suggs rejoin the lineup and Banchero finds himself back in lineups that have been extremely successful when they actually see the floor.

Until then, as was the case through the first three years of his career, the Magic just aren’t very good with Banchero on the court and are still, statistically, better when he’s on the bench. Orlando’s offensive rating with Paolo and no Franz is 0.7 points above league average. When both sit, it’s 1.7 points below league average. Not all of that can be blamed on any one person. But in addition to needing better health luck, the Magic clearly can’t get where they want to go unless they win minutes with their best player on the floor. Banchero needs to be better.
Click to expand...

https://www.theringer.com/2026/01/1...east-improved-paolo-banchero-jaren-jackson-jr

KingCheetah · Jan 13, 2026

Should the Rockets trade for Pablo Ranchero?

A_3PO · Jan 13, 2026

KingCheetah said: ↑

Should the Rockets trade for Pablo Ranchero?
Click to expand...

That is exactly what I call him when talking to my son, who absolutely loves the guy.

SamFisher · Jan 14, 2026

zeeshan2 said: ↑

https://www.theringer.com/2026/01/1...east-improved-paolo-banchero-jaren-jackson-jr
Click to expand...

For the Magic to reach whatever their ceiling is with this group, Banchero must cede the floor to a growing list of teammates—Franz Wagner, Desmond Bane, Jalen Suggs, Anthony Black,

The 2-ball handling PF model probably doesn't work, but worth noting Paolo has barely played *any games* with those guys this year - Suggs & Wagner have basically been injured exactly when he is healthy & vice versa

daywalker02 · Jan 14, 2026

I am not that worried about Banchero but one mystery remains, great players usually grow to be efficient.......Paolo on the other hand.

SamFisher said: ↑

For the Magic to reach whatever their ceiling is with this group, Banchero must cede the floor to a growing list of teammates—Franz Wagner, Desmond Bane, Jalen Suggs, Anthony Black,

The 2-ball handling PF model probably doesn't work, but worth noting Paolo has barely played *any games* with those guys this year - Suggs & Wagner have basically been injured exactly when he is healthy & vice versa
Click to expand...

daywalker02 · Jan 14, 2026

Codman · Jan 18, 2026

PB is a monster of a talent.

It seems like he hasn't fully recovered though. And, when fans/media develop a narrative that your team is better off without you, I'm sure it impacts your confidence.

The magic are going to be a tough playoff team when FW is healthy and Desmond isn't torpedoing basketballs off of people's backs. They need some support in the paint , but that team has an incredible future.

Give be AB or Suggs without the injuries any day.

Hemingway · Jan 18, 2026

zeeshan2 said: ↑

https://www.theringer.com/2026/01/1...east-improved-paolo-banchero-jaren-jackson-jr
Click to expand...

It could be that he is just not that good. I was saying it before he was drafted.

SamFisher · Jan 18, 2026

Hemingway said: ↑

It could be that he is just not that good. I was saying it before he was drafted.
Click to expand...

^lean times for Jabari Smith Junior bros

Codman · Jan 18, 2026

Welp, here we are.

Orlando Management has always been lower than hell, but Juwan and Jason want Jett and Jase to have a bigger role...not saying they have pull but....

From a "good guy" it appears like our old friend Tyus is getting another look. Free him

bigboi102 · Jan 19, 2026

Codman said: ↑

Welp, here we are.

Orlando Management has always been lower than hell, but Juwan and Jason want Jett and Jase to have a bigger role...not saying they have pull but....

From a "good guy" it appears like our old friend Tyus is getting another look. Free him
Click to expand...

Seeming it would look like a DFS or Capela swap for Tyus? I know DFS is bad but I don't think we give up on him yet. With Adams being hurt, Capela is backup Center.

yixiixiy · Jan 19, 2026

It’s because Tyus has been trash. There are reasons that freebirds are free.

zeeshan2 · Jan 28, 2026

[MacMahon] “There’s a lot of talk around the league that Paolo and Jamahl Mosley might not be seeing eye-to-eye.”

https:// podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/patience-for-spurs-rockets-kawhis-best-season-ever/id293376147?i=1000746994032

Starts at 32.:35 mark

In the past 5 seasons, the Magic have ranked 27th, 22nd, 26th, 29th and 29th in offensive rating. Currently they are ranked 20th. The overall team defense this season has also taken a massive step down.

Look, I defend Paolo as much as I can, but here are a few facts we cannot dispute:

He is shooting 29% from 3, a career low.

He's only shooting 46% from the field overall, which is a career high, but still not good for a man 6'10" and not enough to shake the PBnoJ nickname.

He currently ranks 281st in the NBA in True Shooting %, right between Kevin Huerter and Brandon Ingram. But he's tied for 35th in the NBA in usage with Lebron.

If you want to call this a "decent shooting year" then we don't have the same expectations or belief in Paolo's potential. I want to see him do much, much better and I think he can.
Click to expand...

OremLK · Jan 28, 2026

Banchero's playmaking appears to have plateaued as well. That was the one thing I always thought could maybe save his "chucker" game, it was promising for a 6'10" guy to be averaging 5+ assists in his second year. But he hasn't shown any signs of improving in that area, and may have actually regressed a little.

He's probably destined to helm a mediocre basketball team (or more than one) for the rest of his career until age turns him into a 6th man. We'll see though.

Nook · Jan 28, 2026

SamFisher said: ↑

For the Magic to reach whatever their ceiling is with this group, Banchero must cede the floor to a growing list of teammates—Franz Wagner, Desmond Bane, Jalen Suggs, Anthony Black,

The 2-ball handling PF model probably doesn't work, but worth noting Paolo has barely played *any games* with those guys this year - Suggs & Wagner have basically been injured exactly when he is healthy & vice versa
Click to expand...

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