I'd bring in Eli Marrero, he is a solid hitter and can play in alot of different postions (catcher, LF, i think he's even played 3B)
Personally, I would do these things: 1) Resign Beltran at 15-17 mil a year 2) Sign Eli Marrero to a 1-2 mil contract for a few seasons 3) Sign Corey Koskie to play 3b if it's in the 4-6 mil range 4) Trade Tim Redding and Brandon Duckworth for RP help 5. Determine whether Roger is coming back, and if he doesn't, go sign a cheap FA pitcher or use Ensberg as bait to get one. 6) Trade Miller for cheaper SP help/prospects My team for next year would look something like this: C-Ausmus(3 mil), Chavez(minimum), Marrero(1.5 mil)=5 mil 1B-Bagwell(15-16, see if he will defer money for the team too), Lamb(1.5-2 mil)=18 mil 2B-Biggio(3 mil), Burke(minimum)=3.3 mil SS-Everett(minimum), vizcaino(1-1.25 mil)=2 mil 3B-Koskie(4-6 mil), Lamb, Marrero=5 mil or so LF-Lane(minimum), Marrero, Palmeiro(500k)-1 mil CF-Beltran(15-17 mil), Palmeiro(500k)-15-17 mil RF-Berkman(10 mil), Marrero, Palmeiro-10 mil= about 56 mil(backload berkman and beltran to get it lower if necessary) SP Oswalt(8-9 mil long term deal) Pettitte(8.5 mil) Clemens or FA replacement or trade of Ensberg or Miller(3-6 mil) Backe(min) Hernandez/Munro/Buckholz(min) or FA at 2 mil or so(definitely keep pete on a minor league deal in case andy's rehab takes longer than expected) 22-26 mil here Bullpen Qualls-min Harville-500k or min Wheeler-same as harville Lidge-min(work on long term deal) Steve Kline(1.5 mil or so) relievers acquired in trade of redding/duckworth(minimum or close to it) 5-6 mil total on pen That teams payroll would be anywhere from 80-90 mil depending how you choose to do salaries or how you utilized trades of Miller/Ensberg. If beltran leaves, I'd work on trading for a replacement using miller/ go after Beltre/Lowell/Drew or sign another RP like F-Rod to make the bullpen a beast again and look for starting pitching help on the market. But all in all I like the makeup of that team, and the reason I chose koskie at 3B is he is lefthanded which could really help balance out this lineup, and he plays the game hard as can be. The question is can minnesota keep him, I'd probably say no.
If we lose out on Beltran the Astros should target Drew. He is not as good as Beltran but he will come cheaper and might put up monster stats at MMP.
Clement, Pavano, and Benson look like the only 'reasonable' signing targets (based on 'affordability/talent'). Lowell reportedly will be traded. How much of an upgrade would he be? Defensively, in particular. Does Ensberg have any trade value? Redding? We know the answer to how much is a Duck...worth (less!). 'stros need to be able to catch the ball better (if no Beltran then it just gets worrse). Meanwhile, the catcher catches it well -- and can't hit a lick. If he were as smart a hitter as catcher, ala the older Bob Boone, he'd be a decent 280 type #8.
The biggest key to the 'Stros future will be the development of Taylor Buckholz and whether or not Wade Miller will return to his 2001-2003 form. This team can win with 3-4 dominant starters, and 1 dominant closer... no matter who is on the everyday lineup (as long as they're solid players... but they don't all have to be superstars). A healthy rotation of Oswalt, Pettite, Backe, Good Miller, and good Bucholz, with Lidge closing, would have this team in contention for the next 2-3 years no matter what.
Sign all the big fish. I want 'em all. Corey Koskie is an injury waiting to happen. He could get hurt on his sofa though, but I do like him as a player.
Looking at the mid-market teams, it will be very hard for the Astros to support 4-5 players who will have contracts in the $10 million dollar range. As it is, most of these teams have only 2-3, and they're pushing it with that. Houston - Oswalt, Pettite, Bagwell, Berkman and Beltran should all make around $10 million for the next 2-3 years. That's hard to invest that much money into just 5 players, and try to remain competitive in all other facets of the game (bullpen, bench, 5th starter). St. Louis - Pujols, Rolen make greater than $10 million. Then its Edmonds and his $9 million. Matty Mo and Renteria will be let go as free agents if they want contracts greater than $10 million. Chicago - Only Sosa makes the serious money here ($17 million). After that, Wood makes around $8 million. Alou was let go, and they'll probably try to sign a young outfielder to a 12-15 million dollar deal. Also, I doubt they bring back Nomar unless he can sign for around 8-10 million.
In most cases, I would agree with you Nick, but Bagwell is getting phased out in 2 seasons or sooner, and Pettitte will be 32-33 by the time his deal expires in 2 seasons and I think money wouldn't be an issue if we wanted to keep him after it does expire. The core of the future is Oswalt, Beltran, Berkman. If it means taking a few losses financially now to have it set up for the future in 2 seasons, it's worth it, especially since if that regional network comes through soon they will have extra streams of revenue. Drayton saw how the fans respond to a winner, and there is no reason the Astros should ever have to not be competitive if they make the right personnel decisions starting this offseason. I'm sorry, but if you stuck a gun to my head and said you had the option of letting Lance walk while keeping Carlos or vice versa, I would choose Carlos 100/100 times. He is the total package, and if he wants to remain here, you do what it takes to keep him here, unless its A-Rod salary part deux, which it shouldn't be. I'm not saying I want to have to make that choice, but if I was forced I know exactly who I would choose. But, obviously I think you can keep both and make it work.
3rd is a trouble spot for the Stros, and the situation would only be exacerbated if Kent leaves. Lowell would be a massive, ginormous upgrade over Ensberg at the plate, and in the field it's no worse than a wash (though ML has a better arm). Essentially, you're replacing Kent's salary slot & production level for the next 3 years with Lowell. Stros can't afford much of a dropoff in offense when you have Everett & Ausmus in the everyday lineup. Here's a little info on Lowell's funky deal with the Marlins - if they can't complete financing for a stadium by Nov 1 (they won't), he becomes a free agent. http://www.palmbeachpost.com/marlins/content/sports/epaper/2004/10/15/a1b_marlins_1015.html It's generally accepted - if you trust what Hun & Beltran's people say - that the Beltran situation will not be finalized until well into December. Hun is addressing impending issues with the Astros roster - i.e. Kent & Biggio - without consideration to Beltran.
Jason Varitek, Adrian Beltre or mike lowell, Garret Anderson, Carl Pavano, Eddie Gurdado, Carlos Beltran
Nomar is a dumber idea than Rickey Henderson. Dont' forget Eli Marrero hasn't played as much C recently--he'd rather be in the OF, and he's not that great there. None of these catchers are worth it...though I agree we need help there. Geez I wish John Buck had stayed...though I still agree with the deal of course I like the Koskie idea a lot. Garret Anderson is not worth what he'd be paid. He's past his prime and injury-prone now, though he plays through it a lot of times. I'd love to get Finley back...not sure what kind of salary he'd command and whether he'd be willing to leave west coast and AZ. Benson or D'Amico if they're cheap? Koch to set up.
Isn't Viz a FA? I'd be inclined to let him go, as big as he's been lately. My feeling is that he's finally done. I'd be happy with Bruntlett assuming his role, although that leaves us with a RH bench (bruntlett, biggio/lane, Chavez/ausmus)...palmeiro if we re-sign is switch, and lamb when he doesn't start is left. Viz was nice for the switch
