Numbers and Accolades and Individual Success

With all the changes in the league this offseason, a lot of people's statistics are going to be effected. Many of the young guys in the league could be ready to make the next step as well.

First and foremost, Shaq's stats are going to jump back up near 30ppg. You're going to see Van Gundy, the Riley mentee, force feed it down Shaq's throat every trip down bringing back the days of the old East Coast Miami/New York offenses.

Kobe Bryant will average 30ppg next season and will challenge O'Neal for the MVP if the Lakers can somehow finish in the top 5. He averaged 30 two seasons ago, 29 two years before that, and 24 last season sharing the ball with O'Neal, Payton, and Malone. Duncan and Garnett barely average 24 a game. Now with O'Neal and the stress of conviction out of the way, and Rudy Tomjanovich there to allow isolation every trip down court, Byrant is going to flourish. With T-Mac joining Yao, O'Neal aging [and the Heat likely wanting to increase the burden on Wade], and Garnett/Duncan not big scorers, there really is no competition on the horizon for Bryant for the scoring title over the next few years. The league's two premiere up and comers, Yao and LeBron, are both lauded for their passing and neither will likely challenge either. I can honestly see Bryant leading the league in scoring for atleast the next 5 years here.

Tracy McGrady's numbers are going to take a huge hit due to the fact that he is now the 2nd option and that JVG's top priority is slowing the game down and limiting posessions. My hope is that McGrady will be allowed to free lance when Yao is out of the game or is ineffective. His numbers are going to dip down to around 21-22ppg but the wins will pile up like he's never seen.

Kenyon Martin's numbers should significantly drop. Jason Kidd's no longer setting him up, and he goes from the 1st option in the halfcourt to the 2nd option in Denver. His minutes will drop as well splitting time with Camby and Nene. Though it won't show in the stats, Martin's impact will be huge in Denver. They now can come at you relentlessly with 3 athletic big men. Look out for Denver next year - that team is stacked.

Steve Francis' numbers should return closer to his career averages. I don't think he'll ever again be as good as he was in his 2nd and 3rd seasons. I've brought it up time and time again, and I still believe that Steve has lost something physically. He doesn't seem nearly as athletic or explosive. You won't hear him complain about injuries, but the man doesn't seem the same. He was leading the league in scoring and shooting 50% from the field before a mid-air collision with Rasheed Wallace left him writhing on the Compaq Center floor in pain. He's never been the same since. I realize JVG handcuffed him, but there has to be some physical explanation as well for the regression. Steve's tale is a sad one. He's the most physically unique and athletic point guard in NBA History but could never put it together in terms of running a team. Steve's case would require a thread of it's own and I hope the best for him next season.

What can I say about LeBron James? He made me a believer last season. This guy is absolutely unbelievable. To have an NBA team in playoff contention at age 18, playing point guard is unfathomable. If you watched the Olympics, you saw that this guy just knows how to play basketball. He knows where everyone is at all times and never loses his poise. LeBron James is the Magic Johnson that Penny Hardaway never became. I hope he develops a jumpshot because I want to see this kid do great. I wouldn't sweat the loss of Carlos Boozer - he's a nice player but a product of LeBron James. If Drew Gooden isn't half as pathetic as he's looked thus far into his short career, he should be able to fill the void.

Yao Ming is the biggest wild card in the NBA. Who knows what to expect from him? I have reason to be optimistic however. If we assume that the transition for HS to the NBA is comparable to that of the Chinese Basketball Association to the NBA (in terms of adaptation to physicality and speed of the game), then Yao should follow the same growth curve as Kevin Garnett, Jermaine O'Neal, and Dirk Nowitzki. Garnett, Dirk, and Yao all averaged 17/gm in their 2nd years, and the former 2 eclipsed the 20 point mark in their 3rd years. Rocket fans have reason to be encouraged. This is in no way a question of ability or "can he do it?" Yao Ming demonstrated in stretches last season that he can be the game's most dominant player. The Phoenix OT game, Atlanta 3OT, and Shaq matchups showed that this is not about ability. This is simply a matter of getting this guy's conditioning up to par. The addition of taller post entry passers to the Rockets this season will be a huge benefit that is being overlooked. At times last season, the main problem was simply getting Yao Ming the basketball. I think Yao will average 21ppg this season, but again, he's the biggest wild card in the league. You just don't know which Yao you're going to get from game to game.

The addition of Erick Dampier in Dallas came a few years too late. He's going to be a big help for that team but it won't be enough to offset the loss of Nash. Jason Terry and Jerry Stackhouse in the same backcourt is a recipe for disaster, especially when there's even more scorers on the team. Dumping Antoine Walker helped. Dallas is past their peak though. That team fell apart last year when Nash was injured. They'll win games because there's so much talent there, but the mix of players isn't going to win them a championship. Had they had Dampier at the prime of the Nowitzki/Finley/Nash troika, they could have seriously contended at some point.

Tim Duncan won't win the MVP - it'll go to Shaq or Kobe - but he'll most likely win another title. I want to see a Spurs/Heat NBA Finals, the first matchup of two great big men in the Finals since Hakeem and Shaq last squared off. Kobe will have all the stats next year, but Duncan is the best player in the game.

Two guys I want to see bounce back next year are Vince Carter and Allen Iverson. The NBA needs this guy's on winning teams and healthy, atleast until the new wave of kids is ready.

 

Yao's rookie year, early in the season, late in the game. Steve was playing the best ball of his career at the time. He drove in hard and was met by Wallace in mid-air and took a nasty, nasty spill. The shooting percentage plummeted from that point as did the scoring output.

You're absolutely right. He played point guard for about half the season, but the ball was still in his hands when it mattered. Anyone who watched the Olympics saw just how great a feel for the game this kid has.

 

I don't think Steve Francis can coexist with a dominant post presence. I won't go into detail because this has been discussed ad nauseum on the BBS over the past 2 years. He's not a set shooter, he can't score off screens, he can't pass, and he can't control tempo. He can beat you one on one off the dribble, but then your big man is left completely out of the play. I think it's going to be interesting to see how he and Dwight Howard develop over these next few years. I think the perfect complement to Steve's game would have been Brad Daugherty. A great passing, primarily jump shooting big man who could set the pick for Steve and either knock down the open jump shot. This was the thinking behind the Jason Collier draft day disaster and I also think part of the motivation behind drafting Yao Ming. Before Yao came to the States, all of the reports were that he was primarily a perimeter jump-shooter. Looking back, I think at the time most of us were just hoping Yao could be a competent big man and provide some solid picks and good outside shooting. We fully expected that this would be Steve's team for the next decade. I personally was pleasantly surprised when Yao displayed a full blown arsenal of post moves and showed the potential to become the best player in the league. At this point, it would have been foolish to neglect this talent and relegate him to the role of a jump shooter. Steve, having conflicting talents, and taking up a large chunk of the salary cap, had to go.

When he came in, I thought he was going to end up in the Hall of Fame. All the point guard rankings always had him as the 2nd best point guard in the league in those years. He's far and away the most athletically gifted point guard the league has ever seen. There's not really a close second. Isiah Thomas and Kevin Johnson come to mind, but those guys were more or less just great basketball players with great basketball ability, not God given athletic ability. Steve could score at will, he was the best rebounding guard in the league, he was relentless and durable, and led the team to 45 wins in his 2nd year. He still made the same mistakes and still couldn't run a fastbreak, but this was easy to overlook because of his youth. But the years passed and things stayed the same. Our now 27 year old point guard still couldn't handle basic full court pressure and still couldn't make a post entry pass. In the end, Steve had to go.