Lol. Paolo has a similar career scoring efficiency on near the same volume as Green as a big. There were only like 3 games JDub played this year without SGA. One of them was against the Rockets.... There is this concept of eye evaluation and I'm sorry but there wasn't a stand out elite trait of JDub besides maybe his wingspan. He is very "Jayson Tatum" in the fact he has really good traits all around but doesn't have a top 5 in the league trait in any one thing. I saw Green out play JDub. Not in terms of just having a hot shooting night. I saw more creativity in handles, more athleticism, body control. More stand out defensive highlights. Green just looked like a significantly higher ceiling player with these guys playing head to head. Green in multiple scoring possessions absolutely made JDub look silly.
Check the math there - it's not a lot, but it's a lot larger than 'less than 1%'. We have a 6% chance at the first pick, 6.5% of the second pick, 7.1% at the 3rd pick, and a 7.8% chance at the 4th pick because we own Brooklyn's pick and we get the OKC owned pick IF it falls into the top 4. Effectively Houston has the 12th pick and the 9th pick(Brooklyn's) but because of draft swaps and protections, they will either end up with the 9th pick or the odds of moving up better than the 8th pick but not quite as high as the 7th pick. ...not that any of that matters a ton here though because it appears the draft tiers are relatively flat this year so it's not like there is a better class in the top x picks BUT it matters because you might be able to get a decent talent AND someone who fits a positional need on the roster if you are able to move up where you might just get a decent talent who has some positional redundancy to our existing players if you choose later in the draft. I know the star power isn't expected in this draft, but I think this would be a great draft for Houston to nail because it could introduce a solid role player who doesn't make their first big contract for another 4 years while we are really starting to stretch the cost of this roster if we are trying to sign as many of our recent lotto players as possible(Sengun, Green, Jabari, Eason, Amen, Cam). There is a chance we are a legit contending team with a solid role players from this draft still on a rookie contract which gives us positional value AND roster flexibility with carving out our rotation in the future depending on the cost of all these players.
In some ways it's almost better for us to land #9 in terms of cost-savings if we think we're just going to end up with a roleplayer either way, and depending on who's still available. #1 pick gets $10.1M salary and the #9 pick gets $4.6M. If the high ceiling/low floor guys all get taken from picks 1-8 and leave us with, I don't know, a Dalton Knecht, Reed Sheppard, even Devin Carter, I'm kinda okay with that.
yeah so as usual you're going to spend the next 4 motnhs arguing that Jalen Green is better than players that are universally regarded as better than him - sounds like fun, maybe he will be, but I'm out.
How many GMs do you think would choose Green over Williams given the choice? Not to say consensus is always right, but my guess would be 75%+ are taking Williams. At some point actual production has to matter more than upside. And I do agree that Green does have that upside to be better, but Williams is a hell of a player already, clearly better than Green right now, with plenty of upside to improve as well.
Maybe, I think there are some that would still view Green as the guy with the superior upside and would hold out hope he reaches it.
My bad - I thought I read you were talking about the overall odds of a top 4 pick. Agree it's fairly low percentage hit on TWO top 4 picks (less than 1%)
I like Coby White but hell no, no way in hell am I giving up 2 picks in the top 5 for him. As I’ve said before unless we’re able to trade for a top 10-15 player I don’t want us giving up any picks
Coby White signed an extension making 40 million for three years. So about 13.3 million which is actually less money than two Top 4 picks would make together. Runs through season after next. https://www.nbcsportschicago.com/nb...lti-year-coby-white-contract-official/494170/ https://www.hoopsrumors.com/2023/07/rookie-scale-salaries-for-2023-nba-first-round-picks.html That's a stupid good contract.
Idk man, i like Williams but i really feel hes being massively overrated. Hes just got that great role player vibe to me. And since he came out quick out of nowhere, ala chandler parsons, everyone loves him. I think hes currently a better fit/player for a contending team like okc but a much worse fit/player on a rebuilding team trying to be the guy. Hes a tobias/middleton type player to me. I agree with the sentiment that nothing screams elite with him, and theres no glaring trait that leads to stardom. Green has plenty of warts, but he definitely shows legit signs of stardom that williams could never. To simply dismiss this and say 100% of GMs would take Williams is ludicrous. I know its cool to poke fun at the "potential" excuse people use for green, but holy fuuck just look at everyone clammoring for coby flipping white who sucked ass for 4 years and finally broke out yr 5. Somehow, Jalen could never do that and isnt warranted the waiting time for his potential to come around.
