I honestly don't even think it's close defensively. J-Dub is already far, far better. I go back and forth on the offensive side of the ball which has the higher ceiling. J-Dub has better efficiency numbers and similar volume stats, but of course he has much more help around him so his job is easier. It's really the defense that's key to me. I don't see Jalen ever being more than, maybe, slightly above-average. Williams is already a plus defender and could be all-defense in the future.
But when you trade for more future picks from a team that projects to be good, that’s the type of players you get, anyway. Look at the Spurs’ haul in the Murray trade: 3 firsts and a swap. One of those firsts has already not conveyed, and the 2025 pick is tied to the Hornets, so if they are in the lottery, which is completely possible, that becomes two seconds (another 1st not conveyed). The Spurs are ok because the trade ultimately led to Wemby, but GMs are fully aware that these future picks don’t usually turn into much. They beat their chest initially and it appeased the fans, but they will forget what the deal was eventually. To go into a draft with two picks in the top 4 means that you are definitely getting players and you pretty much get to pick whoever you want. I think people are sleeping on that value a little. It’s all a moot point because we aren’t getting those picks, but it’s a fun exercise in armchair GMing.
Sure we could get Coby White....but those draft picks could be anything....they could even be Coby White! I 100% understand what you're saying. And in a normal draft I'd agree with you. But this isn't that. These dudes are rough and the Rockets aren't in any position to be developing more players. Especially this batch of misfit toys. The way I see it is that we need a Jalen Green insurance policy. That is priority #1 this offseason. More than any draft pick or anything else. We could draft Castle and Holland/Collier and that could be it? But they don't line up with the window, they won't be developed (like they would on a team like the Spurs/Blazers/Wizards) and they won't help us until 3 years down the road. Maybe. That's if all things pan out. White would help us next year. In any stretch, whether it be off the bench or as a starter in the 5/6 months Jalen isn't a functioning basketball player. You would agree that Coby White or Brandon Ingram or Tyler Herro or Mikal Bridges make us a better team next year over two top 4 picks? And probably the subsequent year...right?
That's a fair point. I think Brooklyn's KG and Pierce trade blew up the value of those far in the future 1sts because that team just collapsed and the picks turned into Tatum and Brown. Hell, the potential top 4 pick we're talking about now is from one of those kinds of trades. Something like that has a bit more allure and potential of upside than a pick in a known week draft. Like for example, what are the odds Reed Sheppard becomes a 20 ppg scorer like White? I don't really think it's more likely than not. Whereas when we were drafting Jalen Green the potential upside was massive and the chance to hit at least 20ppg was seen to be almost assured. If this were 2025 instead you might be able to get someone like Devin Booker with 2 top 4s but in 2024 it's barely worth Coby White.
Sure. And I probably make the deal for Ingram or Herro, just not Coby White. And I also give kudos for the Simpsons reference.
If any team gives up a first round draft pick for that mop head "Side-show Bob" character then they get what they deserve- more losing seasons.
Bingo. I wouldn't trade next year's Nets pick for two lottery shots this year. If the Rockets did in fact have the #2 and the #4, they would be less valuable than the Nets 2025 or 2026 pick. The top players in this draft were like you said....in line with players like Jovic from Miami or Jacquez/Podziemski. Take Podziemski who went #19....he is a substantially better prospect than Dalton Knecht who is currently being mocked as high as 7 or 8. Cody Williams is another that is being overrated because his brother is Jalen Williams. His stock is also sporadic. I've seen him at #2 or #3 and also as low as #12. The only consistent one is Sarr who doesn't go much lower than #3 because he's 7-2. He's the only one that would make me consider it because Amen Thompson has shown an incredibly chemistry with really tall lob threats.
Ya I guess we'll have to agree to disagree. Green has the significant lateral agility advantage and Williams has the arm span advantage. And when it comes to offensive ceiling it isn't close. JDub doesn't have anything uniquely generational with him. Green does in the fact that he's in the same tier of speed and agility with the ball as guys like Iverson, Ja, Fox but at 6'6". Jdub has solid traits, not elite traits. So you can say maybe his floor is higher at best.
OKC has five players that are 21 or younger. Jalen Williams is 23 years old, but only a second year player. They have shown no indication of trading away the lotto pick we owe them this year for immediate help, even though they are stocked with young talent and are the #1 team in the West. If they aren't done with that phase, we certainly aren't. Denver has been a contender since 2020 and are the literal defending champions. They have no problem adding 1st round picks every year. The only reason not to add picks is if you already traded them all away to contend in the first place, like Phoenix trading all of their picks for KD or Minny trading all their picks for Gobert. EDIT: I think it's also funny that you thought we were done with acquiring players 22 or younger, then immediately suggest acquiring Walker Kessler who is 22 years old.
Just realized those are his career numbers. This season he's at 19/4/5. Still would not trade two top 4 picks for him.
In the recent Most Improved Player voting, behind Maxey, finalists were Alperen and Coby. His TS% last three years were in the 56-57%. This year his usage was up when Lavine was out. If Green had that, we'd be elated. He's really their only confirmed young core, with big question marks on other guys like Patrick Williams, and Julian Philips. Dosunmu and Sanogo were two other guys I'm gently keeping my eye on. Realistically Rockets have a better shot of getting Caruso than getting Coby. Not necessarily because Coby is all-worldly, more that they have just one confirmed young core prospect. Coby is the only one for them right now. It's more to do with scarcity. Amen was a top 4 pick. Would swap Amen for Coby. Amen as a playmaker is a maybe. Coby already showing he can score, pass and dribble. But Bulls would ask for more. Should have went after Coby previous summer. *runs away*
So now that the charade is over, let me share my true thoughts. No matter how bad a draft is projected to be, there is no chance that before the draft all 30 GM's agree that it will be exactly as bad as the worst draft in history. If you understand human beings, you understand that for better or worse, not everyone thinks like you. So if you're thinking it's doomsday, there's someone else with a different perspective. It's largely agreed the 2000 draft is the worst ever. The top 3 players are Kenyon Martin, Jamal Magloire and Michael Redd. What you have to understand is that PRIOR to the 2000 draft, no one knew it was going to be the worst one in history. PRIOR to the draft the picks are not valued as though it's the worst draft in history. Scouting is not THAT reliable and it's well known. European players are OFTEN underrated. Defenders are very difficult to spot in a draft (other than traditional rim protectors). Two top 4 picks in ANY draft are valuable in the trade market. Let's say as valuable as two top 10 picks any other year, but certainly not worse than that even if the projections are looking like it to one single GM out of 30. So if you're sitting in your office as the GM and thinking "oh my god I can't think of who's good here so no one else can find a good player either" you are failing as a GM. You have to understand that there are teams more desperate than you. Blazers, Wizards, Spurs, Hornets are thirsty for picks. You can parlay their players into better players from a 3rd team. You have to do a little churning. But to throw your hands up in the air and go "well the draft sucks so let's just trade picks 2 and 4 for Coby White because I need an insurance policy for Cam Whitmore who is an insurance policy for Jalen Green" >> that's a ridiculous position. The picks are not the problem. If you need an insurance policy for Whitmore, then you would never have developed Coby White who was disappointing for 4 years. Let's be the team that develops a Coby White, not the one that trades two top 4 picks for him to be an insurance policy.
Aren't we diving a bit too deep into the hypotheticals. We don't have two top 4 picks this next draft. Statistically for the Nets and our own to both land in top 4 is very very low. Unless by top 4 it's not actual picks, but people actually thinking about one of the young 6 who was taken 4 or a above (Amen, Bari, Jalen) for Coby. Am guessing people wouldn't want that. Back to the poll, since majority is favoring option B, I'm guessing the answer is settled.
If we're using that Family Guy reference, then Coby White is a boat that cost $10K, and mystery boxes cost $1K and have a chance to become luxury yachts. Which is why such trades occur in real life while Peter Griffin is an idiot. So the real question of this hypothetical isn't whether 2 lottery picks are better than Coby White next year or X years down the road, but whether you believe the Rockets core is set, so White + Current young roster = Championship contender. If so, then you take the deal. If not, you take more swings at a potential superstar.
Coby White is a boat that costs 10k. The mystery boxes might get you a boat that costs 10k. The issue here with OP as well as most people it seems is that they don't understand how poor the prospects of this draft are. They think well...a draft is a draft is a draft. And that isn't the case. There are some bad drafts. There is no Zion or Wemby or even Jabari Smith here. The issue is further compounded by the Rockets position. We are essentially going to draft players that have a small percentage of one day helping us out in a manner that a player like Coby White could help us out *next year*. Look at the Kuminga/Moody in Golden State. Dyson Daniels in New Orleans. Young players don't develop when there is already a set hierarchy of stars. They need room to grow and the Rockets no longer have that "luxury". The reason Coby White even developed into what he did was because the Bulls said "**** it". And let him do his thing. If anyone is curious, here is the question asked on a sub with people a bit more knowledgeable about the draft process. There are a lot of interesting responses from people who root for different teams. A few Jazz fans in particular said "no" to Lauri Markkanen for those picks. Others said the should consider it. It's all over the place but the overarching opinion is that this draft sucks.
You are having a hard time grasping the NBA salary cap. Coby White will be making probably somewhere in the neighborhood of Desmond Bane money, 5yr/$200mil. Two lottery picks, depending on where they land, will cost about half that combined, and they're not even fully guaranteed. And they may turn out to be better than Coby White. You are essentially just speaking of draft pick downside instead of upside, when actual NBA GMs consider both. As for this being a bad draft, the last draft people considered bad, you could've drafted two of Ant/LaMelo/Haliburton. If you don't think the Rockets can draft correctly, then the issue isn't draft picks. It's the people making those picks.
The "stars around him" argument against Jalen Williams doesn't really work because he plays even better when SGA is out. That dude is a stud. Up there with Chet and Paolo as the best player in the 21 OR 22 draft. Jalen Green is not remotely close.
