Beyond a jumper which is a skill that often can be fixed, it's very obvious Amen is a very intelligent player. Defensive skills guarding 1-5, anticipation to create turnovers in the passing lanes, to create blocked shots on all player positions even seven-footers, rebounding and positioning, passing/vision, and slashing/attacking. He's very efficient as well with his shot selection. Hakeem was a defensive genius and a brilliant basketball mind, with at least three counter moves on offense, but English wasn't his native language so some people couldn't understand his process. Amen is quiet but his game is very loud as Ackerman stated, you don't become a top-five guard in the NBA defensively as a rookie without a brilliant talent for understanding the game. The stereotype that a player is a gifted athlete and not highly intelligent is old and lame IMO. Amen, and his brother Ausur are cited as basketball nerds and 'walking encyclopedias' of the game: "Amen Thompson is a student of the game and will be honing his craft in the NBA for the Houston Rockets. The team has picked up a pure basketball nerd, as he showed during recent interviews. Thompson was asked to pick which player was drafted higher after being presented with two names. The man absolutely killed it, making only one mistake. Amen correctly answered questions picking Jimmy Butler over Nikola Jokic, Damian Lillard over Stephen Curry, Bradley Beal over Chris Paul, Ja Morant over Luka Doncic, Kevin Durant over Michael Jordan, Jamal Murray over Paul George, LaMelo Ball over Trae Young, James Harden over Russell Westbrook, Devin Booker over Giannis Antetokounmpo, Joel Embiid and Jayson Tatum being tied, Bam Adebayo over Jalen Brunson, Rudy Gobert over Draymond Green, and Tyler Herro over Kawhi Leonard. The only mistake Amen made was saying that Kyle Lowry and Jordan Poole were tied for the same number pick, but Lowry actually went higher at No. 24 compared to Poole going No. 28. He went 13/14 on these picks and named the exact draft number for quite a few." https://fadeawayworld.net/amen-thom...about-who-was-drafted-higher-in-the-nba-draft "Time will tell if Ausar Thompson also can be Halle Berry in church, but the qualities are there to believe it’s possible. The effortless athleticism coupled with the mental processing is a package NBA’s decision-makers drool over. More than that, though, Ausar Thompson’s obsession with basketball may be his greatest quality. He’s a walking hoops encyclopedia and gym rat. Ausar Thompson possesses qualities one can’t teach, but the teachable ones feel like they’ll come along because, well, he won’t stop until they do." https://theathletic.com/4757442/202...-pistons-overtime-elite/?access_token=7707151
For me, when a rookie already has an elite skill, defense in his case, and they show flashes of playmaking and just an understanding of the game, I tend to give them quite a bit of leeway. That said, if he's still the same player heading into year 4 that he is right now, I'll be very disappointed.
In this modern era he can actually let an AI graph out where his best shooting spots are and just shoot from there and get his %s up. Giannis got it up to 29 to 32% at one time by sheer work ethic. I would not bank on it but it is not impossible. It is the low attempt numbers that would not make such a big difference. ---- so back to midrange.
Jimmy Butler? He shot 18% as a rookie. Demar DeRozen bottomed out at 9% and now is like 33%. Bam Adebayo? Jalen Suggs went from 20% to 40% from three. Derrick Rose went from like 20% into the 30's from 3. I am sure there are others but those are the names I could think of after 5 minutes of thought. So there are players that fix their jump shot, and "fixing" the shot is relative as well. Even if he shoots 30% from three, that will make a really big difference in what he can do on the court.
So one thing to note is putting that number in context. As Amen coming in as a rookie from OTE, off the bench, and put in the dunker's spot during the season. He shot 0.9 attempts a game a very low sample, in a way that stat can be arbitrary and cherry-picking a bit. But I get the point and understand where you're coming from, his shot needs major work. So just on that sheer number, others will need to check and run the numbers themselves. But just a quick run of stats, players shooting .150 3pt% or below for a season, aged 18-22 (to account for rookies or early in their career players) who played over 1300 minutes in a season like Amen. Again, these are not in the context of injuries, team situations, etc. So basically continuing the cherry-picking theme here. There are many more depending on how tight you set the number threshold, like say .200 3pt% for a young player, etc. Grant Hill https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/h/hillgr01.html LaMarcus Aldridge https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/a/aldrila01.html Blake Griffin (year two and three, .292 rookie year) https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/g/griffbl01.html DeMarcus 'Boogie' Cousins (*Rockets Legend) https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/c/couside01.html His brother Ausar's splits by month this rookie year, who had more attempts, thus increasing the sample size that Amen didn't have: https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/t/thompau01/splits/2024 But aside from an arbitrary number, the main idea is that Rookies typically improve shooting over the years. Other players who improved: Jason Kidd Jalen Suggs etc. Amen just needs to be enough of a threat to keep defenses honest in the playoffs. Even just catch-and-shoot or wide-open threes at a good enough clip in the game would work also. But lastly, if he never improves, he's still an excellent multifaceted player who can dominate a game in different areas right now. So either way we got a good one imo.
I don't disagree that a jumper is very important for him to develop. But I think the "teams will game plan for him in the playoffs" is in fact a compliment. That means he is not an offensive liability. Giannis didn't have a jumper, still doesn't. He is a career sub-30% 3pt shooter. But because of his physical abilities, he can bully his way to the basket. Amen is not as strong, but he is more crafty and quicker moving toward the basket. That is not something that's easy to stop. Not to mention his court vision giving him multiple options every time he drives even when the lane is clogged. If teams start to put multiple defenders in the lane to stop him, that will open up a lot of shots for his teammates.
Good post. But a few things: Amen was moved into the dunker's spot because of his poor shooting. The poor shooting was the cause; the role change was the effect. It's not like the role change interfered with his otherwise fine outside shooting. The Grant Hill comp is interesting. I honestly forgot (or just never knew) how poorly he shot from 3. His numbers did improve, but only on 0.7 attempts per game for his career. So, I don't know. Not much. Also, it was a different game back then. Still, it is an interesting comp and one I never would have thought of. Kidd and Suggs were bad at outside shooting but them at their worst might be better than Amen at his best. So I don't think they're very comparable.
Maybe it's just me but I don't think Amen even needs to fix his jumper, he just needs to continue being so good at everything else you don't need him shooting 3s on the perimeter. We saw it the last game, not having a jumper didn't prevent him from having a triple double and scoring 18 pts on 8/9 shooting. If Amen is our first or 2nd option ala Ben Simmons, yes he needs to fix his jumper cuz teams will camp in the lane and freeze him out. But Amen is like our 4rth or 5th option at this point, they don't even run plays for him he gets his pts via transition buckets, drives and opportunistic plays. If teams are doubling Sengun and Jalen Amen is basically free to do what he wants. Another factor is we have Jabari and Cam who are prolific 3 pt spacers. They kinda switch roles on offense with Amen being the offensive rebounder and post scorer while Jabari and/or Cam spot from 3.
Maybe you're right. But I'm of the opinion that a contending team can only have one non-shooter on the court at a time.* I think, for that reason, Amen plays much better when not sharing the court with Sengun. So if Sengun becomes a good enough perimeter threat then I think they can play together. But I've never been impressed with his jumper and haven't seen much improvement in it over 3 years. *Maybe an exception can be made if a team has two non-shooters and 3 *great* shooters surrounding them, but to this point we have 0 great shooters.
I mean technically you are right but there are exceptions for every rule and I think Amen is good enough to be an outlier. Amen is a bad shooter but if you put him at Pg he will make the opposing Pg a bad shooter as well so it evens out. And then you have an elite passer, transition scorer and rebounder.
Thank you for mentioning Jimmy Butler. It's crazy to me that he never comes up in these discussions since he is a similar size and similarly high-IQ/high motor (when he turns it on). Jimmy is also still not a consistent shooter from year to year. His first three seasons combined in Miami he shot 24% from three (2020-2022). And he's never been a volume guy--usually only takes a couple of three pointers per game even in his better-shooting seasons. And no, Butler is not a great midrange shooter either. He's usually been under 40% on midrange jumpers outside 10ft from the basket. He is good from 3-10 feet though, which is a skillset Amen also flashes. Definitely a modern, contemporaneous example of how a perimeter player can still be effective without a good jump shot.
I remember having a hitch in my jumpshot. A cockback hitch and a propensity to lean back Fat Joe-style at the top of my leap. Many times, I would be releasing the ball when i was actually starting to descend. Drills with my college coach/ friend broke me of that habit. We would just practice time and time again receiving the ball with only .4 seconds left on the clock. There was no time for the bad habits to exist, so I learned to release quickly and how to explode vertically without taking time to fade away. Not only that, but it had the added benefit of creating greater arc and backspin on my shots (i.e. less McGrady or Rodney McCray-esque line drives). Wasn't long before the 3 ball became a weapon I could utilize. As for Amen, I'd love for him to study tapes of Penny Hardaway. He could learn a lot from that and avoid going the Boris Diaw route (even though Boris had a long career, he came in as a point guard but ate his way out of the position).
Not really a fair comparison. Basically no one shot 14% their rookie season on 1 attempt. It's odd we let him shoot that much and realized it towards the end of the season. You would compare him to someone who took practically 0 attempts their rookie season which is what he should have been doing. Maybe you put him in a comparison with people who shot 68% on FT's their rookie season and had to build a 3pt shot from scratch. Typically big men. There are plenty of people who were ass for like 3-4 seasons (20% range) then developed a jumper. Blake Griffin is a good example. It's a very difficult task I agree with you. Will take time. That's why I say screw the mid range jumper, if he can't develop a 3pter we will always have a handicap on this team. Let's go full throttle for it and see if he surprises us within 2 years. Spending half his training on mid range is a waste of our time. Last thing we need is a mid range-only guy next to a post player. Amen does strike me as the guy who may work out harder than anyone in the NBA though. Pure speculation of course. You have to admit, he doesn't seem like he's interested in any kind of social life. Kind of socially awkward at times. He fully realizes his shooting situation is a disaster. I guess we'll find out soon enough.
Would love cap gurus to weigh in on this. I believe the rockets are assuming a max slot for Amen. Yes that’s premature but that’s what I’m assuming based on how good he is and how much the front office loves him. my question is, how much does Stone need to take that into consideration with a possible Sengun or Jalen extension? Would the rockets need to make a choice on Sengun or Jalen if they were both seeking the max, knowing they have a younger prospect they feel even better about? Or do we just expect that Tillman will go into the tax to pay everyone and they won’t worry about it?
