So, where's everyone at with Jalen going into next year?

1- We get far more data to make the right call on what sort of contract Jalen deserves
2- Making a call before that data could lock us into a bad contract that handicaps future moves and puts back our rebuild
3- If Jalen is worth a max to teams on the market, that means he'd probably have trade value to at least go for matching salary

The only mild risk is that he has a straight up bad year and a desperate team still offers him a max anyway when we don't think he's worth a max, but I'd honestly rather take the risk that he leaves for nothing in that scenario than offering a bad contract or trading now at lower value for a guy who could be a cornerstone. The truth is we just don't have the data to make a call right now and we don't have to make a call right now so why do it? There's risk either way, and to me the risk of the market overvaluing him is less of a risk

The only exception is if we got a truly great trade offer for him but I'm doubting we do. The only reason you actively try to trade him now is if you think his stock is going to actually go lower than it is now.

If his 24-25 season looks like his March 2024 month all the way, then we offer him a max extension at the end. If he's shaky but still trending positive, we offer him below that and still match a max offer from another team if that comes in. If he's straight bad like he was a lot of this year, we could trade him at the deadline or give him a fair value offer (well below max) or let him go if a team overpays him. None of those options are as risky as maxing him now in my mind.

 

Thanks for the thoughtful response. I guess I’m just saying that I don’t want to pay Jalen if we aren’t all in on him; I’d rather trade him. And if we are still not sure about him, the risk is that he starts out next yr mixed and now his value is lower because he’s closer to FA and the perception of him around the league is down.

to me the only reason not to trade Jalen before RFA is if we think he’ll end up being deserving of the max. If no I’d rather sell high.

 

Rumor was that Jalen was offered to Brooklyn and they declined. So Houston at least tried/considered recouping value on him. It's one thing make a determination of a player's value, it's another to get a team to actually offer it to you. Even if we were offered fair value, does the offer align with the team's goals? It's clear that the team wants to win now, so future 1st round picks are not as enticing as an established player. I wouldn't have liked that deal, btw. I also don't know what Jalen's realistic trade value is.

Can the team get what they want in a Jalen trade? Does Jalen deserve an extension? If the answer to both of those is no then Jalen hitting RFA is the only path forward.

 

To me the only reason you trade him now is if you think he's actually kind of bad but has artificially inflated stock from this hot end to the season. If the front office thinks that I guess the move is right to trade him, they see him in practice and stuff, but what I've seen with my own eyes is promising enough to hold the asset even at the risk of it eventually being a loss (trade value tanks or gets an RFA offer we don't want to match), but not promising enough to commit more into the asset with a max contract right now. And since we're protected by the ability to match in RFA either way I don't see the harm in holding off.

There's just no reason in my mind that we have to go off what we think about him right now. We can wait for more data. Even just a half season, he's tradeable at next year's deadline if we wanted to. That team still gets his bird rights and RFA rights

 

At some point go pick up a ball and shoot a layup

My stand was always same trajectory for the other HS to NBA players, the other 38 just weren't LeBron or Amare but some went on to become HOF after 4yrs of development and hearing how much they sucked during that stretch

With a sucky 15ppg, Bryant was all star Starter in 2nd season, but wasn't starting for his team, so his suckyness wasn't as showcased since he was masked by 3 other all stars with one being all NBA big man

He is 3 games from completing his full 3rd season(17 months of pro ball), and is on par with the other like KG/Tmac, who you would have said sucked as well at this stage

Next yr will be his 4th season and he will be what he is going forward, similar to what I said about KPJ, who was highly touted by you as the catch n shoot sniper finishing his 4th season before being exiled

I thought he only had 1 good game per month?

Why are you boosting up the scrub?

Don't they play around 12-15 games per month?

Then how was he one of the finalist if he only had 8-9 good games?

This is why you are nervous ......its aight booby, its gonna be a cold summer, I'm chilling for the whole summer

 

Blah blah blah, cut the bs compliments with the backhand diss right after

And someone on here was comparing his efficiency to top 15 as in he should be on par(he shouldn't), I replied to them

Which is what you don't do for scrubs ...you do that for players who have showed you something, like that fluke almost POM in WC, those awards are usually won by the top 10-15 or so players each month

But Green just had a super Saiyon Fluke stretch.....which pretty sure you burned your man cave down to the ground during that run

How is Mobley looking on his Max extension?

Has his offensive game expanded and caught up to his defense? Or is he still a one way player?

Now its 8 or 9 good games per yr added with this efficiency talk

That's all you got left?

Hey if this guy hit 36-38% of his 3s he will be a superstar? That's all it takes

Well damn that is why the scrub is such an enigma, because he is basically a superstar but 33% against 36-38% from three is holding that back, you anti club members are pure comedy

Of course he improved in other areas, his coach has spoken about it, but pretty sure you didn't post it because of the praise

But had it been negative you would be posting it like you do Green ts% to certain games if it fits your woodwose narrative

Its gonna be a cold summer, calling, but they got my old number.....

 

Hes getting at least what Vassel from Spurs got

Its better for both parties(more so Green) to wait it out..... nothing like betting on yourself if you believe/know you are that guy in a contract yr

Most usually show out and going forward because another possible max is on the horizon at 26yrs old or so when first extension expires

 

The ambiguity is warranted. I think Stone wants to extend Green, but he's unsure as many of the fan base. This lack of data is also ambiguity of other GMs if they want to somehow put a market price label on a player.

Not able to price something just makes contract pricing complicated. In economics, knowing the price is the bare minimum of supply and demand. Not having this info is not good for decision making.

 

Judy for the record - can you define "long stretches"?

I seem to recall and the stats back up that he played great for an 8 game stretch and played well in 11 of 16 with a couple stinkers mixed in to that mix before the clock struck midnight and Cinderella lost her slipper .... April shooting back to as bad as the rest of the season.

 

He averaged just under 30 PPG over 15 games. That's a "long stretch." At least, it's statistically meaningful. Enough with the "8 games" crap. He dominated March and has averaged 27 PPG since the end of Feb.

 

You are all over the place

He played great

He played well

Couple stinkers

Back to as bad as rest of season

Can you define the odds of the 40 or so who came straight out of HS to league and dealt with up n down consistency?



You seem to be a stats specialist so Look up the entire list and tell me who was great at Green same stage, it may help you relax and see pic more clearer

Also he had good games throughout the year but he battled thru his coldest stretch while also becoming better in other areas, but its never a secret his explosive/good games would get overlapped by his avg to below avg + ones

I always hear its two sides of the ball

He got better at his weakest areas and still showcased enough superstar flash to at least see what it do next season as it should be

After that, it is what it be......I'm good either way, extend or deal away

You got the stats to back it up, I watched those same games while the data was taking place

He is on TMac trajectory, sprinkled with some Mamba, looking like a faster version of Booker/Mitchell, which is where I see him being if he puts in the work on his shot from all levels/footwork/floater etc, not just 3 ball

 

There is a risk for any RFA for them to sign an unpleasant offer sheet that heavily impacts their trade value.

The worst structure I can imagine is a 3-year max deal with a 15% signing bonus, a 15% trade kicker, and a 3rd year player option.

If you match an offer sheet, then the player has a 1-year no trade clause (without their consent). The second year, they have a ton of bargaining power, in that they can threaten to decline their option if they go to a non-favored destination, so what you'll get back in trade is limited. If they end up going to a team of their choice, they can then opt in to the third year of deal and sign an extension for up to 4 additional years with their new team.

Meanwhile, you're forced to pay them almost $50M in real cash for Y1 of their deal, and if they end up getting injured or sucking, they just opt into the third year of the deal and you've got an untradeable asset.

A pending RFA is just not going to have a great deal of trade value; a lot of the value for Jalen is the ability to negotiate a rookie extension. Therefore, a deadline deal is almost certainly going to be a salary dump or some minor draft considerations.

If you only value Green as a trade asset, it actually behooves you to try and get him extended at some reasonable number; that offers cost certainty in a trade. The example I'm looking at is the RJ Barrett extension; he probably was overpaid based on his production to date when he signed his deal, and has not quite reached his ceiling. However, he continued to trend up and improve, and he was a major piece in acquiring O.G. Anunoby. If you can get JG signed to a 17.5% of cap extension, perhaps he ends up being the RJ Barrett of a Mikal Bridges deal in a year, even if he's still somewhat consistently inconsistent, and is topping out at a borderline all-star rather than a building block.

 

Fake alarmism about letting Jalen go into RFA. Look at the last 20 RFA's in the NBA, how many of them walked for nothing in return? It's a rare occurrence even if it has happened once or twice. Trading him out of fear of that is the definition of panic. Hope our front office is not that weak.

In the huge majority of cases despite what GM's whine about, the offer received in RFA is roughly worth the value of the player. There is no trend of walking. There is no trend of overpayment. It's actually way more accurate that an agent and a team sitting in a room and debating the player's value. Further, there are no GM's in the league who are going to pay market value once the team that drafted the player with the #2 pick has decided to trade him right before an extension. That's a gigantic red flag and they will make an offer with that in mind.

Seems like some people are just looking for ways to justify their pre-conceived desire for Jalen to be traded.

 

Rj Barret is who people think Jalen Green is on this forum:
https://cleaningtheglass.com/stats/player/4574/onoff#tab-team_efficiency

Jalen Green for reference:
https://cleaningtheglass.com/stats/player/4865/onoff#tab-team_efficiency


Green shows a level of demanding defensive respect and fear that generates gravity that Barret has never had.

 

So you are basically saying if he turns into a 36-38% shooter from 3 then he is a max player?

When you and others say he was bad are you talking strictly shooting numbers?

Or does he get some credit for starting every game for a top 7-10 defense?

Green is gonna sink or swim, good thing he been in the deep end since rook yr

Next season should be fun, especially if they can improve with 10+ wins again with the Fluke/Scrub

Fluke Green is MVP level, we need bad Green to be what he showed against Caruso/Twolves recently ... And those who know and played ball wouldn't even call those bad games, but that should be Green striving standard

Its up to him and the coaching staff
TBD

 

So at the beginning of the season the drama queens were all like: "yeah he can score, but only in a non-winning offense where he's allowed to do whatever he wants. It's being revealed that he can't even repeat the same thing in a winning offense which is why he's less efficient this season."

So by that logic, if Green is better post-ASB this year, then these performances are worth more than his previous end-of-season performances right?

Meanwhile, before Green ever improved his scoring, he had improved his effort, defense, passing and rebounding. Stop acting like he was doing nothing for the first two-thirds of the season. He prioritized having a well-rounded game like his coach and lots of posters asked him after last season. "What can he do if he's not scoring?" Well, he's now better at literally everything else a player does when they're not scoring. His defense in the last 30 games has been CLEARLY good - and I myself said he was improved but not good in the first half. Then he improved his scoring too.

If you were hoping that with just 1 training camp with a legit coach that Jalen would START the season improving his defense, rebounding, passing, effort AND scoring efficiency all at once - were you being realistic? Be honest. Is that realistic for anyone? Like if I said Brandon Miller better improve his shooting, finishing, passing, defense, overall effort and rebounding all simultaneously in the first half of next season would you consider that a fair expectation? That would be an absurd expectation. If you divide the season into 4 quarters, Jalen improved his effort, then his defense, then his off ball play and finally his scoring a quarter at a time. If he had improved his scoring first, you would have bemoaned the lack of well-rounded game. ALL his fundamentals were bad, there was mathematically no way to tackle it all early.

With 3 easy games remaining, here are 22 year old Green's last 22 games in a great culture and winning program:

First and foremost, 14-8 record as the leading scorer and missing 2-3 key rotation players
Good defense, great effort, great aggressiveness
25.5 points on 19.8 shots (45/37/81 splits)
37% on 9.5 3PA
6 rebounds
4.3 assists

When the season is over, these numbers will be slightly better. You will get laughed at if you tell us we're cherry-picking good games or it's just a hot streak that doesn't matter. These are his numbers in a winning system now. You know as well as I do Udoka believes in himself to get this out of Jalen next season.

The time for calling this an illusion is ending. Enjoy your 3 remaining games of cynicism and faux-outrage. I've told you before I'll tell you again, repent and hop on the bandwagon. Otherwise it just gets worse for you from here.

 

The whole argument is strange to me. The jump shot efficiency hasn’t been there for large parts of the season, but literally everything else has improved. At a minimum he is average defender at this point.

 

Buddy we got an entire off-season of cynicism, outrage and expressions of glee from every Twitter journalist sharing some random Jalen Green trade rumor ahead of us.

 

Gosh in the other thread someone said he is the same as Trae Young defensively. I'm very proud of myself for not losing my sh*t after reading that. Ridiculous what we're dealing with.

 

I'm so excited for Roosh to discover the guy he pissed off is going to be our leading scorer for the next 10+ years effectively ending his dream of being a Rockets insider. That was so incredibly stupid, childish and egotistical of him. Not to mention kicking someone when they're down. People don't forget things like that, I doubt Jalen will.