So, where's everyone at with Jalen going into next year?

I'm still concerned about giving him a max rookie extension. Fantastic stretch of games, but the inconsistency is obviously concerning.

Would love to see him lead this team to .500 Show it to us these last 3 games on the road.

 

Well I guess as long as you are just a fan and aren't taking yourself too seriously that's fine. I don't think that's the type of analysis a GM or owner should have though if they want to build a contending sports franchise. There are plenty of owners out there especially who do make "Feels" based transactions (ehhhemm.... Jerry Jones), and it's not the greatest track record for success.

Jalen Green is by every metric a solid NBA player. A reasonable GM/Owner could make a decision on moving him right now before they have to pay him... yes. 100% that's something they have to consider. However regardless of your feelings, the right move by every logical standard is to hold onto, and/or extend JG unless there's a deal out there to really get maximum value that allows the team to be elevated to a contender overnight with that one transaction.

I'd be open to moving JG this offseason personally, BUT I really just don't see the type of value coming back in players that are the rumored available "star level" players ala Trae Young, etc. If you are going off of "Feels" only here, then man I'm just warning you now to be prepared to be pissed off when you see what kind of offer Tillman is most likely about to give JG and Sengun this offseason.

 

It's clear we have some potential here with Jalen. I love the flashes of brilliance, I've enjoyed his evolution as a passer and defender, and now there will be a lot of growing pains as he deals with good teams building a defensive scheme around him. Staying within the game, not pushing the issue when it's not there, trusting teammates and moving without the ball, etc. Those are all things he's just now learning with a real coach and competent teammates. I think he's doing great, and I can't wait for the next season.

 

Ofcoz I am just a fan, whoelse would I be? The narrative of 'ok, you dont' support JG so you don't have basic basketball common sense' is really disgusting.

I agree with you, what you are saying is a logical standard move. It doesn't conflict with my feeling that JG played super inefficient for 2/3 of a season. It also doesn't conflict with many people who lost faith on him. We are all expressing our feelings and thoughts here, no? But somebody just couldn't accept the fact that many people are not satisfied with JG4, and it has nothing to do with common sense.

Lastly, whether I will be pissed off by the offer still depends on JG4's performance next season.

 

I am not even sure why people get so serious about that player.

If he signs that is fine, if he does not sign, get him to RFA and go from there........not worried at all about that dude.

Alpe's extension is also coming up so I am interested in what they are going to offer both.....I guess Sengün is the priority over Green.

Both agents are not going to accept something below Max I guess.

 

Because he is the highest pick we got after Yao I guess.

 

I would disagree here, most metrics do not show him as a solid nba player. EPM, WS/48, BPM, VORP they don’t show an overall solid player. The totality of all his performances have him as probably solidly in the below average group when compared to the rest of the league today.

There are two things that still have to be considered though…Age and the absolute crazy highs he has flashed in small doses. Those two things, for me, make it hard to have anything but hope for him. I see both sides of the argument but to me the youth and flashes of brilliance are still factors squarely in Jalens favor when projecting his future.

 

4 years for $100m or he is going to RFA and the Rockets will match what he gets.

 

15 game streak: 37.1 minutes, 29.2 ppg, 6.2 reb, 3.7 ast 2.4 to | 48.8//42.2//78.2//61.8 TS%
15 games before streak: 29.8 minutes, 18.4 ppg, 5.9 reb, 3.9 ast, 2.3 to | 41.7//27.7//82.8//52.0 TS%
6 games after streak(current): 35.1 minutes, 17.8 ppg, 5.5 reb, 5.8 ast, 3.5 to | 37.4//22.4//88.0//48.6 TS%
Season: 32 minutes, 19.8 ppg, 5.1 reb, 3.6 ast, 2.3 to | 42.3//33.1//80.3//54.2 TS%




So his “supernova superstar” streak merely got him back to his rookie numbers?

Spoiler

But but but Ime sucks offensively!
But but but double teams!
But but but Fred!
But but but Sengun!
But but but Silas!
But but but KPJ!
But but but someone else’s fault!

 

I think they are already talking about 120 and 4 years.......Sengün about 180- 4 years......

 

First off, that's false, when you dilute the 8 game sample where he scored nearly 34 points per game to 15 games, it drops it to 29.... and we've already been over why it's dishonest to pretend the hot streak was longer than it really was.

You are hiding some REALLY bad performances behind an MVP caliber 8 games to make it seem like a more significant sample than it really was.

This dishonesty is common among fanbois.

 

Some month by month analysis of PPG/2P%/3P%/eFG%

October/November: 19.6/47.1/33.2/44.3
December: 14.9/40.3/28.0/41.6
January: 20.4/48.0/27.7/48.6
February: 15.8/43.4/22.6/40.1
March: 27.7/56.2/38.1/57.4
April: 19.0/48.4/25.7/44.5

Pretty much paints the Jalen Green Experience for what it is. Inconsistent. He shot the 3 ball at NBA level exactly one month out of the year. He was above 50% from 2 the same month. If this team goes into next season without a backup plan, we're screwed. He needs to be treated like what he is. A talented but extremely inconsistent scorer. A basketball scratch off ticket. If Phoenix flames out I'd start making in-roads with Devin Booker to see if he can force his way out of Phoenix.

 

I think he would probably play 2 months and a half of good basketball.......for a change....and then change some diapers in the Offseason (or not)

 

I think this is the embodiment of the superficial analysis of people who always had issues with Green.


Do you think his April numbers are equivalent in his level of play as with his numbers earlier in the season?

Are opposing teams defending him the same as beginning of the season? What about his on/off impact between April and the beginning of the season?

Can you analyze Jalen Green outside of shooting splits. Is that in your wheelhouse of capability?

 

Jalen imho will be traded.

DD

 

You don't know how much this statement improved my mental health in knowing Green is safe as a Rocket. Thanks for the reassurance!

 

Can’t overstate how much I appreciate that Jalen has improved in all aspects of the game except shooting and turnovers. He’s no longer a detriment to the team when he’s not scoring. But shooting and ball security are really important things for a guard. I guess if I’m forced to forecast, i bet Jalen will always be a streaky shooter. Hard to project him becoming a good long-range shooter. I do think he could become a good mid-range shooter, like DeRozen or SGA.

the issue we have now is very predictable. We were rebuilding so we focused on acquiring talent but not necessarily fit. Now we are a winning team that still needs to find or develop a star, but also needs to prioritize fit a little more. I’m skeptical of the fit between Jalen, Sengun, and Amen because none of them can shoot or project to become great shooters.

I expect us to trade one of those 3 (and I’m convinced it won’t be Amen) at some point. We’d likely want to maximize value in a trade and avoid a scenario where we are forced to match an overpay or lose the player for nothing. And we already know they were open to trading Jalen pretty recently. I suspect that had to have Ime’s blessing.

@Clutch is right; I could see the team making a deal this summer; especially if Ime has definitive feelings about who he wants to move forward with. And “In Ime we trust”. Remember, Ime himself has said that this was an evaluation year.

 

How detailed an analysis does one need? Those month by month splits corroborate with the eye test. Jalen started the season okay, played his worst in February, and his best in March. Going over his games with a fine tooth comb isn't going to make flaws go away.

Jalen is a scorer first and foremost. He leads the team in attempts per game and takes a lot of threes. Shooting splits and efficiency aren't just superficial stats, they're core to how to benchmark his role. Russell Westbrook was a literal MVP and was critiqued heavily for his poor percentages and range. Despite all the good things he was capable of on the court and the defensive attention he was drawing, those were consistent weak points for him. Were shooting splits a lazy way to analyze Westbrook's game? Sure, but they also cut to the heart of the matter.

I hoped Jalen had turned a corner and I'm still hopeful, but I'm certainly not confident. The sample size of his star play is too small to have that expectation. He still has next season to show what he can truly do over the course of a year. Flashes at this point won't cut it, there needs to be consistency.

 

A lot of your arguments hinge on "his archetype is a scorer". Hence superficial.

His month of April for example is he doing his job as a scorer with on/off offensive efficiency with his scoring gravity and improved decision making out of doubles?

Btw his month of April is a career high for a month in assists.

 

What are you even talking about? "Diluting" a sample size? Stop talking about 8 games you weirdo. I'm talking about a 15 game span where he averaged just under 30.

This is the stretch I'm talking about. There were no truly "bad" performances here. Frankly, it reads like the box score of a typical star. Some nights better and more efficient than others, but overall an incredible stretch.