So, where's everyone at with Jalen going into next year?

One thing you notice guys like Kyrie do is how they simplify the game with the middie. Like they'll drive hard to the rim and just stop and pull up for what feels like a automatic middie pull up. I've seen Green employ last game against the Mavs also and it looked effortless on his part. Green needs to study a lot of Kyrie and his counters.

 

Can’t we just be happy that Jalen is f*cking women?

 

The Jalen Green Experience is a ****ing pendulum.

 

I find it much more helpful to consider % of the cap and comparable players when looking at potential extensions:

Assuming a $155M Cap in 2025 - 2026, the first year of a Sengun/Green rookie extension, the numbers will look like such:

Standard Rookie Max (25%)
2025 $38.78
2026 $41.88
2027 $44.98
2028 $48.08
Total $173.71

Rose Rule Rookie Max (All-NBA, MVP, DPOY) (30%)
2025 $46.53
2026 $50.25
2027 $53.97
2028 $57.70
Total $208.45

~Jordan Poole/Tyler Herro (20%)
2025 $31.02
2026 $33.50
2027 $35.98
2028 $38.46
Total $138.97

~R.J. Barrett (17.5%)
2025 $27.14
2026 $29.31
2027 $31.49
2028 $33.66
Total $121.60

~Dillon Brooks (15%)
2025 $23.27
2026 $25.13
2027 $26.99
2028 $28.85
Total 104.23

The Rockets could also use the 5-year designated max or do a declining contract, but for simplicity sake I'm just using the standard 8% annual raise and 4-year term.

Dillon Brooks got approximately 15% of the cap as a UFA, I'm including it here just to show the expected market rate for a mid-level starter. I'd consider this the absolute floor of what any of the Rockets' core 6 would be willing to accept on an extension; if you want to pay them less, I'm going to assume they will just take a chance with RFA, or you're going to not re-sign them based on lack of development or injury.

I'm frankly terrified of potential team dynamics if Green is not extended, especially if they lock down Sengun. Jalen is going to be under immense pressure to play well enough to try and force a max deal in RFA; how is he going to deal with 2nd-year Ime benching him in fourth quarters when he's playing poorly, or the inevitable readjustment to a Sengun-centered offense where he was struggling?

I think that getting Jalen at the 20% / $31M number, treating him like Poole/Herro would be reasonable; those guys probably represent both the upside and downside of such a contract.

I think that Sengun should get much closer to the full max. I wouldn't be unhappy on a full ascending max, but would be over the moon if they could do a declining structure to squeeze as many dollars in 2026 when Jabari/Eason will be up for new deals and they might be weighing whether exercising FVV's option is worth blowing into the luxury tax.

 

Some of the rules may have changed since I really paid attention, but my approach would be to see what the market is. If there is someone else out there in free agency that you think is better value, use the money on them instead. I don’t see that as losing him for nothing. If there isn’t a better free agency option, but you don’t like the market value, let him sign with the other team and then negotiate a sign-and-trade. Lighten the signing team’s load by taking some salary and a pick that will still be tradable down the road for salary matching.

I don’t think we have to press for anything. We can let the opportunities come to us and evaluate them accordingly. After watching Green play for three years, I couldn’t care less what they do. He’s a tease. I’m more vested in other players on the team.

 

Just don't come back if Green is a long time Rocket who makes all-star appearances.

Should be a rule. If you claim to give up on a player then don't come back if that player becomes an important rocket that is part of things like playoff runs.

Dint celebrate any of his fire big makes that gets big wins. Don't celebrate any future success that involves Green with the Rockets.

 

Come back from where? I didn’t claim to be going anywhere. I said I’m fine with whatever the Rockets think is best to do with him. My emotions will not swing wildly either way.

 

Nah I'm saying if Green becomes an important part of the Rocket's future success don't celebrate it.

 

I will be happy for him and celebrate, but I can also understand if the Rockets want to go a different route. It’s possible he could go somewhere else and blossom, which will hurt, but I can see the Rockets position if they want to move on. That is not a “he sucks and I hate him” position.

My only position was that while he has had some great games, including an impressive streak of them, I don’t think I’ve seen the consistency that I would be ready to offer a max extension. I’d be willing to wait until he’s a RFA.

 

I agree. My thing with Jalen is that if he is not that great of a catch and shoot 3pter/ offball player and needs the ball in his hands to be affective, we're going to need to move him to the 1. The days of traditional pg's are over. Cam is great off and on the ball so he will do just fine at the starting 2.
Jalen at the 1 has the advantage with his height and mediocre length rather than at the 2. None of those pgs are defending each other anyways, they are all just trying to outscore each other. If he can at least handle the ball handling duties and make the right passes then he will be just fine. I'm hoping we sit FVV the last few games in order to see if this works. Sit brooks sit fvv and let Amen Cam and whitmore do some work with each other. I think we'll be pleasantly surprised with the results.

 

...at this stage I would say for both Jalen and Alpi, this is really an asset management discussion more so than a player development/team structure one. I don't think either player has proven enough to be considered a definitive "we are building around this guy long term" player so the strategy is lets kick the extension decision as far down the road as possible and get more data. If said player can't be consistent, then we either offer a reduced rate we KNOW we can trade(something in the ballpark of $30mil) and if the player doesn't like it, then leave it to the RFA asset management strategy. If we see consistent improvements in consistency/efficiency from Jalen next year - give him the max....if we see better range and defensive versatility from Alpi AND his ankle appears to be healthy - give him the max. Most importantly, you gotta make that known to both players effectively to start the offseason - we want you to remain a Rocket but how much we pay you in you is going to be dependent on the floor your bring more so than your potential ceiling so plan accordingly with your consistency.

I'll say it again - this fanbase is soft. Swooning over a string of Alpi or Jalen's good games is a recipe for disappointment if the goal is winning a title. We gotta be smart and not let our emotional reactions to being respectable after being sooooo crappy for soooo long not cloud our judgement. I think the 5 game losing streak highlights that this team has improved but is still not hanging with real playoff teams so let's not act like our guys are future stars because the types of guys who are today's stars were showing higher floors in year 3 than what our guys are showing right now(again talking about floor and not ceiling - how do they impact the game overall when they are having a bad matchup or the shot isn't falling)....and this is ALSO why I'm blaming Stone for keeping the Silas party around WAY too long because it delayed true team development. We learned a lot this year and the team improved but frankly this year's improvements should have been part of year 2's development.

 

The 3 point shooting is the main thing left for me.

It's way too low overall, way too volatile.

He needed to improve in the other ways he has this year - GREAT!

But the 3pt shooting has to come around permanently or else meh

 

So if the Rockets have future success in the next ~5-10 years that doesn't involve Jalen Green playing a material role are you renouncing your fandom and quitting the board?

 

That's really not how it works. Do I make claims that I'm giving up on players and wanting them traded? Show me the last player I hoped to be traded. Go ahead. Do it.

Use some basic logic.

 

Oh excellent dude. Thanks for that.

I agree with you about the dynamic being tricky if we extend Alpi only but let's be frank, Alpi clearly deserves an extension more than Green at this moment. There's almost no risk extending him. Even if somehow he didn't fit with us he would be so incredibly easy to trade for great value. Green can't be mad at that.

With Green, I would base it on his final 30 games. That's a good though sample for Udoka - knowing the practice habits - to say he feels comfortable that this is sustainable and improvable. If Udoka believes in him, then I have 0 doubt. He's not your classic Udoka type of old school two way player so if he's convinced Udoka that's quite a feat.

Exciting choices ahead.

 

You are saying someone effectively has to put their fandom for the Houston Rockets on the line if they ultimately are wrong in certain scenarios where they end up having underestimated a player but there's no reciprocity for any scenario where someone overestimates a player.

It's kind of like a sports fascism tbh.

 

******** on a young player and giving up on them is different than rooting for a young player.

Basic logic.

 

So young players have the ultimate right to be not given up on by fans? Just because they are young and the fans are too short-sighted and not patient enough?

Well, I guess every fan has their right to have the feeling of giving up on some players, it's never a matter of age. People just claim they lost faith in Green and you ask them to never come back again if Green shines. I don't see the logic behind.

Yes, Green is young and talented. But at this point, you should ask yourself why so many people are so disappointed by him? Why many more than other rookies or second, third year Rockets players? Many more than any young stars in the Rockets history?

At the third year, his performance is still so inconsistent which is already beyond many people's tolerance limit. That's why. If one or two is no patient, that's fine. If so many are unpatient, then you should wonder whether you are the few with too much patience.

The past win streak has preseverd a little bit of hope for Green. I truly hope that he can improve himself in the off-season and become more consistent and efficient.

 

Especially if they ask those fans who have been around for decades to cater to a 21-22 year old dude seems to be out of touch with reality.

At least Alperen looks like a 29 year old and plays like it.

 

It's very simple, if you give up on a player and they become a core part of the team, don't celebrate the success of the team if it hinges on the layer you give up. Why is this complicated?

Why are so many people disappointed at him?
Because most fans are impatient?
I'm assuming most rocket fans aren't used to 19 year old draft picks with high usage. Rocket fans have never really experienced a rebuild. They hear stories of Luka or Ja breaking out at 19 or 21. But they are casual fans who don't know those guys are the exception for most development paths for stars. Social media is an accelerant for petty stupid discourse. Level headed dudes who are sincere about their analysis like Kevin O'conner or Zach Lowe don't say this type of ****. Because they aren't knee jerk edgelords.

Most fans can't understand contextual awareness?
I'm not going to heed the judgement of people who compare Green to Malk Monk. Or think that KJ Martin is better because his ts% is higher. It's **** analysis with zero contextual awareness. The vapid nature of Green analysis for people who hate him is essentially "hEs a sHoOtInG gUaRd wHo cAnT sHooT".

Well if basketball was as simple as that then I'm assuming NBA defenses wouldn't constantly double Green and send extra help defenders hedges towards his side the moment he has the ball.