I don't care about the whole good pick, bad pick narrative. The best version of the role player Jabari is an extremely valuable player. That's what I care about. I don't blame Stone for picking him at 3. He was a consensus pick, for sure.
that's ironic coming from a fan of a inconsistent inefficient chucker who was picked #2 who 3 years in has the same issues as year 1
people like to define clutch as literally the last 10-30 seconds. the nba is more close to reality, i believe defining it as score within x (5 points?) in the last 5 minutes of a game. Frank (chopshop) put out a good video today on the Rockets clutch statistics. Jabari isnt good in the clutch. Tbf though, no one is, except Alpi - though even he can be a lot better.
I believe in the lottery era of the NBA draft something like ~55% of 3rd overall picks have gone on to be an All star at least once in their careers. So it’s very far from a lock and not a percentage where you should just expect “star”. Edit: Found the article and the chart. This was done in 2019 so not exactly up to date.
Once a player is drafted, it really doesn't matter how high or how low his draft position is. What matters is how valuable a player he is. Why hate a player just because some GM picked him with a high pick? The guy did not choose how he was drafted. If anything, higher picks have to overcome more pressure to perform. This is the same kind of mindless logic that the player is to be hated because some GM decided to pay him more than he is worth.
The general trend is clear. The likelihood goes down from high to low. But individual position is somewhat random. For example, historically the second pick somehow does worse than the third pick. It is kind of like the stock market. It looks random in short stretches. But in the long run the trend is pretty clear.
I think saying the 8th pick is 3.3% likely to become an all star isn’t exactly the way it should be interpreted. The best way to put it is during the period of the study(1989-2019) only 3.3% of 8th picks went on to be an all star. It’s not supposed to be predictive of exactly what to expect in the future at each pick, more just to illustrate how successful these picks have been so far.
Since the NBA DRAFT changed and kids are getting drafted …..it’s a roulette game on potential unless they make minimum age 23-24
Thanks. From that video, here are the FT%s of the starters in the final five minutes of games. I added the season % in parentheses for comparison's sake. Sengun 63.4% (Season 69.3%) Smith 46.2% (Season 82.0%) Green 68.4% (Season 80.8%) VanVleet 83.3% (Season 85.9%) Brooks 50% (Season 84.2%) So by the looks of it, Sengun and VanVleet are the only ones who stay close to their season % during the final five minutes. (Doesn't go up, though.) The other three starters' FT%s decrease significantly, with Smith and Brooks seeing the greatest drop. So you're right, Smith should definitely work on bringing up his FT% in the final moments of a game. Though I wouldn't go as far as to say that the reason is some lack of clutch genes. It could be fatigue or other reasons. Also, something I noticed offhand is the 3pt% during the same final five "clutch" minutes of the game. Sengun 0% (Season 29.7%) Smith 40% (Season 36.5%) Green 41.7% (Season 33.3%) VanVleet 29% (Season 35.2%) Brooks 54.5% (Season 36.2%) So, the same three guys whose FT%s drop actually shoot better from the three-point line when games supposedly matter more. VanVleet, on the other hand, shoots far worse, despite being the best free throw shooter in the clutch. Though this is probably because he's setting up other guys and often taking 3s as a last resort? Anyways, I just found it interesting.
Ime said he doesnt yell it from the sidelines, but maybe he should. He implied the players should know this.
Always found the valleys at 8 and 12 interesting, alongside the peaks at 9 and 13. If you're going to be mediocre, then win 28 or 35 games instead of 26 or 33, I guess
NBA data pool isn't really that big for an extensive statistical study, so stats have lots of irregularities in them. And it doesn't help that for some cases old data get less useful over time because of the constant evolution of the game.
Jabari is a keeper. 100%. Our problem is not going to be talent, it is going to be Tilman. We need to keep these young guys. Amen+JG+Tari+Bari+Alperen are going to improve so damn much this off-season. Please lawd don't F it up Raf.
Reason for the spike in mid lotto is GM start drafting what is instead of what could be. Potential is a hell of a thing.
Easily the highest propability tiers are 1st and 3rd overall picks..... If you don't find a star or superstar there, it's a missed opportunity.... But it's not the end of the road for sure as well.
I mean there is also the phenomenon of bad teams getting high potential guys. Bad teams probably have bad players development more often than not. So good teams getting low ceiling high floor guys will always be a more sure thing because the good team not only has better talent around the new draft pick to help pick them up but also better coaching.
