I'm still hopeful we add a CB or S in FA. I understand your reasoning, but subscribe to the talent before need theory.
As I said, I know that you're suppose to draft for value over need but it's really hard when there's obvious holes. Additionally, there should be good DT, CB and S available in the 2nd so it's not a total reach.
I like Sinnott (hehe!), but Theo Johnson has tools to be monSTAR! Reiman is another with the tools to succeed.
42. Cam Hart - Notre Dame · CB · Senior 59. T'Vondre Sweat - Texas · DT · Senior 86. Cade Stover - Ohio State · TE · Senior 123. Curtis Jacobs - Penn State · LB · Senior 127. Christian Jones - Texas · OT · Senior
Spoiler https://www.espn.com/nfl/insider/st...draft-running-back-projections-rankings-stats …Here is how our projections work. BackCAST projects NFL running back success based on statistics that have correlated with success in the past. Historically, a college running back who has a good size-speed combination, has a high average yards per carry and represented a large percentage of his college team's running attack is more likely to succeed at the NFL level. BackCAST considers these factors and projects the degree to which the running back will exceed the NFL production of an "average" drafted running back during his first five years in the NFL. For example, a running back with a +50% BackCAST is projected to gain 50% more yards than the "average" drafted running back. BackCAST also projects whether each running back is likely to be heavily involved in the receiving game or is more of a "ground-and-pound" back. What follows are some of the notable BackCAST projections for the running back prospects available in the 2024 draft, plus picks for a sleeper and overrated player in this class: Projecting the top RBs in the 2024 draft 1. Braelon Allen, Wisconsin BackCAST score: plus-69.7% Type of back: Ground-and-pound Similar historical prospects: Jonathan Stewart, Nick Chubb Allen is BackCAST's top prospect for 2024. However, his BackCAST score would not make him the top running back prospect in any other season from 1998 to 2023 except for 2005. There are also reasons to be bearish on this BackCAST projection. Allen is only ranked eighth among running backs by Scouts Inc., and he did not run the 40-yard dash at the combine but did the jumps. He is a large back at 235 pounds, and BackCAST has a history of overprojecting larger backs like Ron Dayne and T.J. Duckett. Allen also won't give you anything in the passing game -- one-dimensional ground-and-pound backs have a low ceiling in today's pass-happy NFL. What, then, does BackCAST like about Allen? Well, he averaged 5.9 yards per carry for his college career, and he represented a fairly healthy portion of the Wisconsin running game compared to other backs such as Jackson Acker, Chez Mellusi and Isaac Guerendo. 2. Kimani Vidal, Troy BackCAST score: plus-38.8% Type of back: Balanced Similar historical prospects: Chuba Hubbard, Bishop Sankey Vidal, who ranks just 10th on Scouts Inc.'s running back board, is a bit of a surprise as BackCAST's No. 2 prospect. The system likes that he ran a 4.46-second 40-yard dash at 213 pounds, which gives him a speed score of 108. He averaged only 5.1 yards per carry during his college career but represented 61% of Troy's running game in his senior year, the highest collegiate peak of any of this year's prospects. The response to that stat might be, "How important was it that Vidal got carries instead of his teammates? This was Troy, not Alabama. How good were the other backs?" This is a legitimate concern because there isn't a history of great running backs coming out of the Sun Belt conference. Alfred Morris was probably the best of them, coming from Florida Atlantic (no longer in the conference) in 2012. Current Sun Belt backs include Matt Breida (Georgia Southern), Elijah Mitchell (Louisiana) and Darrynton Evans (Appalachian State) all recorded fewer than 300 yards last season. 3. Trey Benson, Florida State BackCAST score: plus-28.1% Type of back: Balanced Similar historical prospects: Roy Helu Jr., Israel Abanikanda Like Vidal, Benson has a good BackCAST in part because of a strong speed score. Benson ran the 40-yard dash in 4.39 seconds at 216 pounds, putting his speed score second this year behind Isaac Guerendo (we'll get to him in a moment). Unlike Vidal, Benson was a part-time back for a big-time program instead of a clear starter for a smaller school. In his final college season, Benson only got 37% of Florida State's carries. He averaged 5.8 yards per carry, but two other Florida State backs with fewer carries (Lawrance Toafili and Caziah Holmes) each averaged over 6.0 yards per carry. There haven't been a lot of backs who have a low AOEPS but otherwise strong metrics similar to Benson's. The best of these backs, Rachaad White, had much stronger receiving numbers in college. Miles Sanders is another interesting comparable, but he ran a slower 40 at 211 pounds and barely had any receiving yardage in college. 4. Jaylen Wright, Tennessee BackCAST score: plus-21.1% Type of back: Ground-and-pound Similar historical prospects: Jarrett Ferguson, Zamir White Wright is somewhat of a rare prospect because backs who only weigh 210 pounds are rarely classified as "ground-and-pound" by a lack of receiving numbers. He had 22 catches in 2023 but only got 6.4 yards per reception. The season before, Wright had more carries than in 2023 (146 compared to 137) but only two receptions. He had to share carries last season with Dylan Sampson and Jabari Small, which drops his BackCAST a bit, but he was the best of the top three Tennessee backs. He averaged 7.4 yards per carry last season after 6.0 yards per carry in 2022. In fact, Wright was in the weird position of having more yards per carry than yards per reception in all three of his collegiate seasons. 5. Jonathon Brooks, Texas BackCAST score: plus-7.3% Type of back: Receiving Similar historical prospects: Javonte Williams, Zach Charbonnet The top Scouts Inc. running back prospect ranks only seventh in BackCAST among the backs invited to this year's combine. Part of the issue is that Brooks only had one season as a college starter, so his 6.2 yards per carry average might be inflated a bit by the small sample size. BackCAST is also dinging Brooks for being unable to get a major role at Texas until his third season. That might be a bit unfair, considering that his teammates at Texas in 2021-2022 were 2023 NFL draft picks Bijan Robinson and Roschon Johnson. Brooks did not run the 40 at the combine, so that part of his projection has to be estimated. The sleeper Isaac Guerendo, Louisville BackCAST score: plus-8.4% Type of back: Balanced Similar historical prospects: Latavius Murray Guerendo ran the fastest 40-yard dash among this year's backs at the combine despite weighing in at 221 pounds, which is mind-blowing. His speed score of 125.7 was the third highest measured since 2003. But Guerendo's coaches clearly didn't believe in him in college. He played four seasons at Wisconsin and got a grand total of 99 carries. Even last season, after transferring to Louisville, Guerendo was the No. 2 back behind Jawhar Jordan. (They had similar averages both on carries and receptions.) This makes finding a comparable for Guerendo extremely difficult. The closest player I found was probably Latavius Murray, who ran a 4.38-second 40-yard dash at 223 pounds and wasn't the No. 1 back at UCF until his final season. And the list of the highest speed scores does not exactly reveal a list of great sleepers. Saquon Barkley and Brandon Jacobs are on there, but the top names are Keith Marshall, Mario Fannin and Knile Davis. This is a back with a really high ceiling and a really low floor. The overrated back Blake Corum, Michigan BackCAST score: minus-25.7% Type of back: Balanced Similar historical prospects: Devonta Freeman, Jamaal Williams Corum is Scouts Inc.'s No. 3 running back prospect and some draft boards have him No. 1, but he didn't really do anything that would impress BackCAST. His speed score based on weight and 40 time at the combine was a little below average. His AEOPS, based on how much he was used in the Michigan backfield compared to his teammates, was about average. Corum only managed 4.8 yards per carry in his final season, so his career yards per carry number is average for this year's draft class. His receiving numbers are low. All his stats are just "meh." And this isn't included in BackCAST, but I will add that he's not considered strong in pass protection either. Corum may have a reasonable NFL career, but BackCAST doesn't think there's much that's very exciting here.
I don’t know how much Nick values him. That said, we have been wheeling and dealing so anything’s possible.
Draft talent first and foremost. If Caserio can draft a LB that's faster than every S in this draft and has great instincts then he should be the pick. Maybe I think this way because of the decades of the defense being unable to cover TE's. This is why at 2-42 if P. Wilson and 2-59 Bullard or Nubin were the picks I would be very happy. I f the Texans want to have the type of defense to beat the Chiefs/Ravens etc... they've gotta be better when it comes to covering Kelce/Andrews etc....
If you want someone to cover TEs, I think James Williams out of Miami is made perfectly for that role.
TE class is a bit underrated this year, feel like Jared Wiley(TCU) and Dallin Holker(Colorado State) could both get taken before Cade Stover and JaTavion Sanders. Not surprised that Sinnott is gaining traction. KSU only has 4 draft likely prospects this year and I find myself liking all of them over their projected draft slot.
I wish. Our cornerback roster looks worse than last year and our secondary was one of our weakest links. I want the best CB we can get in the draft over anything else.
Our secondary was bad, in large part, due to safety. Particularly because of Pitre being so bad. If anything, Texans needs to look at drafting a safety and cb with the 1st 2 picks. My gut tells me we're going LB/DT and S. Ofc if a top CB drops, I see them going for the CB.
I agree with this and would lean towards a LB over a safety, which position has generally struggled out of college. Kyle Hamilton has been an exception to the rule of safeties struggling in their transition from college to the NFL. Generally, many safeties face a decent challenge as they’re entering the NFL. They must learn complex defensive schemes, adapt to the increased speed and physicality of the game, and refine their coverage skills against elite receivers and tight ends. These factors often lead to inconsistent play and limited opportunities early in their careers. A trend has been that teams frequently prefer to wait until safeties become free agents before investing heavily in their services via the draft. This allows the players to develop, gain experience, and prove their value over their first few years in the league. By the time they reach free agency, they are more likely to have adapted to the NFL's demands and become reliable players.
I think Bullard could be there with the 2nd pick of RD2. Can start at safety and be a nickel CB. I’d love to sign Justin Simmons just to really solidify the position. If they can sign Xavien Howard or bring back Nelson on top of that, I think they could be set in the secondary. The reserves were all nice signings.
I guess Ryans disagrees with you since they brought in Odukah and Henderson, while Nelson is still a FA. Having Hunter and Autry is going to help a lot. I'm not against picking a CB as high as the 2nd rd. But give me the most talented players, not just filling a position with a lesser player because there's a need. I wouldn't have an issue at all if Wilson was the pick at 2-42 and say CB Milton was the pick at 2-59. But I dont see CB as big of a need as you do. I see DT/LB/S/OT as bigger needs. Plus there should be some real talent at those positions in the 2nd/3rd rds, while the talent at CB stretches out quite a bit longer.
