So, where's everyone at with Jalen going into next year?

If those baby hooks raise his stats above his rookie year self and make him a consistently good player throughout the season, then absolutely, everyone will love him. 3 years of no improvement (and the stats don't lie, hot stretch just raised him to his rookie year self) make it hard for rational fans to love him, only those that slurp his highlights call him the next Kobe without looking at the 80% of the time he looks awful.

 

Funny, that is precisely why Moti Motiejunas was adored.

 

Jalen plays off-ball as well, but his IQ is not that great when it comes to finding the right shots to take. And when he is open from 3, it's likely he'll brick the shot.

I just don't think there's a huge gap between Cam in year 1 and Green in year 3, especially because Cam is a better shooter. To me, Cam has the higher ceiling talent wise.

 

I think it is different, Jalen plays like a 6'3 guy even though he is 6'4 with uber athleticism for sure and Cam is more like 6'8 guy who can handle the guard spot if he has to.....much stronger wing player......and taller.

There is a difference in body type and also how they play, Cameron is a power player, while Jalen is just a leaper with some sort of finesse but compared to Euro players, that is clearly not enough finesse.

 

Using FG% in 2024 is wild. He's far more efficient than Jalen and his TS% backs that up.

He's proven from behind the perimeter. Has one 40% one 39% season in his career so far. This year he shot better than Green and last year he shot better than Green. Monk is consistently shooting better than Green from 3pt line. Monk is a far better 3pt shooter than Green.

Monk doesn't have the best decision making in the game but neither does Green. But one has higher A/T then the other. Even when he was in Charlotte (far worse than this Rockets) his A/T ratio was better than 3rd year Jalen's A/T. High usage low A/T isn't a thing. You can have higher usage rate than the other player and still have higher A/T.

You don't just look at TO you look at A/T

Anfernee Simons 2023-2024 usg 28.1% Higher than Green's usg% this season but his A/T is over 2 while Jalen's A/T is 1.52.
Simons in 2022-2023 usg 25% A/T = 1.95, Jalen usg% 28 A/T = 1.42
Simons in 2021-2022 usg 24.9%. A/T 1.95. Jalen usg% 23.7, A/T = 1.3.

Cam Thomas 2023-2024 usg% 30% again higher than Green. A/T = 1.61 again higher than Jalen's A/T which is 1.52.

There are minimal improvements. His passing looks better but his he's averaging less assists than last year. Sengun's averaging more assists than last year. You can't just say they are not converting his passes into assists while the other guy has improved on that area. They are surrounded with the same guys.

Did his decision making improve? No. It looked like it improved because we played bunch of scrubs who has no idea how to force him into turnovers or at least bother him a little. We do not have some diamond in our hands as some you make it out. Other than his first speed there is nothing notable in his game. He's extremely easy to be replaced. We will not miss Jalen Green and he will never be the #1 option on any NBA team other than us because they are not dumb like us.

 

Don't know if anyone caught Sam and Geltz on NBA Radio this AM, but they had a nice segment on the current state of the Rockets.

The points they covered...

1. Ime has flipped the script. This young squad needed a coach that was tough, holding everyone accountable.

2. J Green has shown his growth under Ime.

3. Getting rid of Porter was HUGE for them.
"He wasn't going to confirm to any structure"...

That's coming from a former player Coach of the year.

 

I remain cautiously optimistic...

 

Data shows Jalen simply doesn't play off ball anywhere near the amount Cam has no at any point in his career. He came in as a 19 year old already with a 50% unassisted rate in fgs made. He's been at 60% for the next two seasons.

Cam is at 35%. His shot diet is simply at a level of simplicity and easiness that Green has never experienced in his career.

Quite frankly it also shows a bad eye for the eye test. Cam has shown simplistic straight line drives with almost all of them with a defender not set because a player like Jalen, FVV or Sengun unset the defense. How capable is he generating a good look for himself walking the ball up with a half court defenses set and honed in on stopping him?

Green has always been the guy who unsets or collapses defenses. Cam has been the guy in his career so far who plays off that.

To you a higher ceiling simply means a dude who can play a catch and shoot role better.

To me a higher ceiling is about who can create elite dribble separation at will and collapse defenses in a half court set. Cam isn't that. green is. You need to improve your eye for talent. It's bad now. Be better.

 

There we have it, Jalen is only 19.

 

Where I am at is not trade him this summer unless some club offers something that cant be refused.
See how he looks over the course of the first 6-8 weeks of next season.
If he is still sine wave Green, move him or demote him.

 

A couple of other things.

Cam has the exact same adjusted scoring efficiency as Green's rookie year with a 97 ts+ while having a significantly higher percentage of his fgs made assisted by teammates.

Green had the same efficiency, higher volume on significantly more difficult attempts.

Oh and that .5 to 1 assist to turnover ratio....

Green is too talented compared to Cam as a ball handler to ever have a season where he averaged more turnovers than assists. That is just something that is impossible for Green. It's something I think Cam is going to do for more than one season.

 

His defense is still better than Jalen Green.

 

Nah

 

March was encouraging. Jalen's defensive and playmaking improvement is positive. He is finishing better at the rim.
He needs to improve his outside shot. It unlocks everything for him and the team.

 

Brewer 2.0 according to booby

 

another horrible comparison, SIMONS IS IN YEAR 6! NBA players already killed BillS when he tried to discuss this as a good trade in 2022 … like I said earlier you are just pulling any name out a hat and hoping it sticks

 

Keep him or trade him, whatever the org decides, I am ok with.

DD

 

He was one of the best players in the NBA for a month. He has skills that most NBA players just don’t have. I’m curious historically what players have had the highs of a Jalen Green at the same age and not panned out into a productive player? Tyreke Hill? Im not sure there’s even that many players that have had Jalen Green level highs at this age.

 

I’m a big Whitmore fan and I agree, he doesn’t have the same type of game Jalen has. He could end up being better but it’d be in a very different role. His dribble and lateral movement is way stiffer than Jalen has ever looked even at the same age. What he has on Green is pure power and probably more tenacity. They just aren’t similar players at all. However they could really play well in a 3 guard lineup with Amen. That might be the future as FVV ages out.

 

At this point, more like Gerald Green.