STONE is still the HEDGE HONCHO. Why a FEW MAJOR HITS greatly TRUMPS MANY MISTAKES.

I have really mixed feelings on Stone and I go back and fourth. Sometimes I look at our players and I think he did a great job, other times I look at the other teams we'll have to beat and it seems insurmountable. I think next year is probably the biggest year for his evaluation. If the sum total of this rebuild doesn't result in a .500 team next year, I'll probably be out on him.

Also, a side note - a weird category of guy on here is anti-Sengun but also pro-Stone. If Sengun sucks then this rebuild has pretty clearly been a failure. I don't really see how you can have a positive view on the future of this team if you also think Sengun will never be a star. I guess the only thing that makes sense is if you're 100% sure Amen will invent a jumpshot out of nowhere.

 

That was the draft where it was either drafting Jalen, Mobley or Cunningham and as of now I can make a case where Jalen was the better pick.

Cunningham has been hurt and so has Mobley. Mobley has had the better supporting cast but he's not setting the league on fire but they are all still young

 

I appreciate the effort and agree with some of your points.

I don't think the Harden deal has been a big win for the Rockets, at least not yet but all of the picks have not been made.

Stone's overall drafting has been fine - most of the picks were no brainers at the top of the draft. He struck out on Green but he made up for it on Sengun. People rightfully point out that Eli Witus wanted Sengun, but Stone listened to him and that is part of being a GM.

Jabari was the no brainer at 3.... he doesn't appear to be the best pick, as that was probably Williams, but other teams passed on Williams as well.

Amen at #4 was kind of the top pick left on the board, and he has met or exceeded expectations so far.

If Sengun cancels out Green - we are left with Eason taken at #17 and Cam Whitmore who was taken at #20 as above average pulls. Tari can play when he is healthy, he was a good pick at #17 and assuming he stays healthy, Stone deserves credit - as for Whitmore, he has some real warts but he has tremendous upside.

The "misses" are Garaba, Christopher and Ty Ty Washington.... all were late 1sts.

The blessing and curse for Stone has been that most of the high lottery picks have been close to no brainers, but it also has meant most of the potential franchise altering picks were already off the board.

For now I think he deserves an incomplete for the draft, because most of these players are very young and we don't know who or what they will end up being and the outcome is extreme.... if Amen Thompson learns to be an average shooter, and Cam Whitmore learns the pace of the game - then he is going to be loudly praised.... if they don't work out, then he will be viewed as middling.

Also - the next two drafts are going to be huge for the Rockets.... they have like a 15% chance of having two lottery picks, including at least one in the top 4. Even if they do not, they will likely have a top half of the lottery pick and who they choose will be crucial to the teams long term outcome.

My issue with Stone is not the draft - it is his lack or attention to detail. He was horrendous in how he handled the Rockets chemistry his first two years on the Rockets. KPJ and Wood did damage. He neutered his head coach, he sat in on practices and undermined his head coach on discipline and as long as the young players spoke to Stone, they could go against Silas.

He also has left a lot to be desired on maximizing assets.

The story isn't completely written yet - but right now it feels mediocre for how bad the Rockets were.

 

If Stone trades the Nets picks or our own pick (if we get in the top 4 and can keep it), he will regret it long term.

The Rockets need to put a tremendous amount of resources into this draft and use the picks... they can potentially get a franchise type player in the draft, they can fill holes and get guys under a rookie contract.

Both of the Bridges are really nice players - but one played patty cake with his girlfriends body and the other one is not a franchise altering player.

Plus - I will take my chances with Reid Sheppard, who is a very unique prospect.... he shoots 50% on 3's, has a very high IQ for basketball, balls the size of the Grand Canyon and defensively he is really nasty.

 

I always find it weird when people state that Cam, Amen, Jabari and Tari are sure fire hits/future stars and call Jalen a bust.

Just for reference:

Jalen Green 40 pt games: 5
Jalen Green 30 pts games: 27
All our other draft picks 40pt games: 1
All our other draft picks 30pt games: 12

Jalen Green 40pt games with >50fg% & >40 3pt%: 4
rest of the team? : Oh wait...

I'm not sure I have the same definition of "bust" and "future star" tbh.

 

T-Mac averaged 26/8/5/2/1 when he was the same age as Green, and that was in an era of basketball when teams were scoring like 20+ points a game less than now.

Kobe averaged 28/6/4/1 at the same age as Green right now.

Jason Kidd averaged 16/10/7/2 at the same age as Green and was an all star. He wasn't considered a bust at all.

It is true that Billups struggled at the same age as Green - but Billups is an extreme example, and also was on his third team by the time he was Green's age.

The book isn't written on Green, but he right now doesn't look good. The physical ability is there but the feel lacks and sometimes the effort seems inconsistent.

 

Some of it is that this is Green's third season and that he has taken a step back this year offensively.... some of it is that there isn't a single thing that Green needs to improve to unlock his game, like there is with Cam and Thompson. Also - in the case of Cam, he is like 3 years younger than Green. In the case of Amen, he is a rookie and if he shoots even mediocre from the perimeter, he is likely an all star or better. Jabari has improved a lot from last year.

The other issue with Green is that soon his rookie deal will be up - and decisions will need to be made.

 

I do understand that. My point was less that Green is a big star, and more that all these "future stars" combined haven't achieved what he has on the court so far, so maybe people should hang fire a little. On paper, the draftee who's shown by far the most star flashes is the one people are calling a bust, which doesn't bode well for those who haven't even got close to that level of production yet. I'd be interested to see how many rookies improved clearly from year 1 to 2 and then massively regressed, and how many of those players had brand new coaches and systems to deal with. The talent is there or he wouldn't have put up star numbers the rest of our roster could only dream of (if "everybody would put up numbers like that given the green light" is true, wtf's going on with FVV?) A lot of it is obviously on Green not rising to the occasion, but players don't put up several 40pt, 50%fg 40%3pfg games in a season whilst scoring over 20 points in well over half of their games and then fall off a cliff the next season as a regular occurrence. Hell, how many players put up them numbers in a career even once and still get considered a bust? I'm just not one for the herd-think tribalism tbh.

 

You can be a "hit" without being a star. I don't think anyone is projecting Jabari or Tari to ever be a #1 or even #2 on a championship level team. They both just look like solid wings. I know people think this word is an insult, and I don't think it is, but they're roleplayers. The types of guys you definitely need on a championship team, someone in the Aaron Gordon/Khris Middleton tier, or someone like Derrick White. Nobody is building a team around those guys, but you'd be happy if you drafted one. They fill a role, they're good at their role, and they help stars look like stars.

 

I agree with pretty much the majority of your post.

I feel like I may have a bit more confidence in Amen improving and succeeding with us more than you do because I don't view that as much of a reach at 4 this past year. We definitely have the steal of the draft in Cam....

I also don't agree with you on the Jalen front. It definitely isn't with homer/only fan goggles, he most definitely has his warts in his game now, I most definitely acknowledge the shooting % deficiencies as well as the defensive inadequacies. I can also acknowledge the fact that your very example of a superstar was not viewed as one within the past 1-2 years up until this season. I'm absolutely not saying that Jalen will elevate his play to SGA level, but there is hope that he improves as his body continues to develop and he grows his offensive repertoire/consistency. He is only 22 years old and hasn't even hit near peak of his body's development or physical skillset.

Hell, pretty much all of our top draft picks of recent years have yet to hit their mid-20s. I just wouldn't be as hasty as you and a lot of others to label him a bust. From what we've seen from Caden, we can't label him a bust either... they're just still so young and developing.

I do believe that the answer for our 4/5 defender is JSJ to stand opposite of Alpi, but again he needs time to allow his body to develop into the inside banger that he can become both offensively and defensively.

The picks upcoming can hopefully help us fill in our gaps in roster, we just need to find someone that shakes free from a team that isn't necessarily performing to their best standards (ala Nets, Hawks Bulls, Grizzlies, Blazers, Jazz (ew), etc.).

The direction our team is headed is magnificent and I don't see the FO sitting on their hands this upcoming draft/FA season.

 

bro Jalen has played so many more minutes than the other players you mentioned and was given the freedom to shoot as much as he wanted until this season. lol. Those 30 and 40 point games are not a good basis of comparison.

 

Shifting the goalposts that though, no? If Jalen's a "bust" (which many declare he is) whilst putting up bigger numbers than the entire rest of the cast combined (including Sengun) then maybe we should be terrified because so far none of those roleplayers have shown even flashes close to the flashes Jalen has. Cam? Nope. Amen? Nope. They've never shown anything like Green's star flashes, so how are they these huge future stars? (And let's not pretend people are projecting Amen as a roleplayer either, because people are calling him a star level talent.)

 

Fred Van Vleet has more minutes this season than any of Jalen's, and he has even more of a green light because he doesn't have to get a pass from KPJ first. Where are all of his 40pt 50%fg 40%3pt shooting games? I thought everybody could do it if you handed them the keys regardless of talent? (evidence disagrees with you massively.)

 

Age and tenure in the NBA are different. T-Mac and Kobe both came out of highschool. So when they were 22yrs old, they had been in the league 4 or 5 yrs, whereas this is Jalen's 3rd yr.

 

#Firestone

But really, whatever. No self respecting GM wants to co-GM with Patrick Fertitta.

Definition of “replaceable” or “average”.

Holds onto guys too long/overvalues his own.
“We cannot trade Eric Gordon. He is too important to our locker room!”
“We cannot trade Jae’Sean Tate! He is a veteran leader!”
“Kevin Porter Jr. is a core piece we’re building around!”

His drafts are neither good nor bad.
It’s possible his later picks are better than his top 4 picks.

Sengun(16) - Jalen(2)
Tari(17) - Jabari(3)
Cam(20) - Amen(4)

And you tell me he “deserves credit” for Sengun. “He saw something in him!” Yes, he saw something in him in that he’s tried to acquire a center every step of the way since. And if you believe Jackson Gatlin, they’re still not sold on Sengun or are “lower on him” than the other (drafted) guys. So just how much credit should he get?

Drafted Sengun
Signed Daniel Theis; later traded Theis
Pursued more centers a year later
Traded Wood; started Fernando (We need to trade Wood to open minutes for Sengun. After 3 preseason games, we’re gonna bench him for Bruno Fernando.)
Pursued Brook Lopez

Stone definitely deserves credit for trying to replace Sengun every step of the way.

Cutting through all the bullshit(minimums, two-ways, exhibit 10s), his free agent signings aren’t all that great.

Contrary to popular belief, they aren’t “loaded” with picks. Two picks, two swaps, that’s it. I guess they can start trading from their 2029/2030 picks this year?

You want a star, get in line. And be prepared to trade at least one of your “six franchise players”. (Then again, if they have “six franchise players”, they won’t need to trade!)

We already know the Thunder have a billion picks and are actual contenders. (HOU/LAC/UTAH/MIA/PHI/DEN/DAL)
Nets have picks (PHI/PHX/DAL)
Pelicans have picks (LAL/MIL)
Knicks have picks (DAL/DET/WAS/MIL)
Blazers have picks (GS/MIL/BOS)
Spurs have picks (CHA/TOR/ATL/CHI/BOS/DAL)
Jazz have picks (CLE/MIN/LAL)
Wizards have picks (PHX/GS)
Lakers always find a way to pull a star out of their ass. (“Wow, that’s it?!” “Wow, that’s all they had to give up?!”)
https://basketball.realgm.com/nba/draft/future_drafts/detailed

And that doesn’t include the stuff @Nook has alluded to!

Spoiler

Head Coaches
•Stephen Silas
•Ime Udoka

(Re-)Signings
•Mason Jones(two-way)
•Kenny Wooten(claimed off waivers)
•Sterling Brown(1 year, $1.6M)
•Bruno Caboclo
•Jae’Sean Tate(2 years, $2.96M)
•DeMarcus Cousins(1 year, $2.3M)
•Gerald Green(1 year, $2.56M)
•Jerian Grant(2 years, $4M)
•Trevelin Queen(E10)
•Brodric Thomas(E10)
•Trey Mourning(E10)
•William McDowell-White(two-way)
•Josh Reaves(E10)
•Brodric Thomas(two-way)
•Ray Spalding(two-way)
•Justin Patton(two-way)
•Anthony Lamb(two-way)
•Mason Jones(10-day)
•Armoni Brooks(two-way)
•DaQuan Jeffries(claimed off waivers)
•Khyri Thomas(10-day)
•Cam Oliver(10-day)
•Cam Reynolds
•Khyri Thomas
•Matthew Hurt(two-way)
•Daniel Theis(4 years, $36M)
•David Nwaba(3 years, $15M)
•Daishen Nix
•Tyler Bey
•Armoni Brooks
•Anthony Lamb(two-way)
•Dante Exum(3 years, $8.1M)
•Tyler Bey(two-way)
•Armoni Brooks(two-way)
•Marcus Foster
•Christian Vital
•Daishen Nix(two-way)
•Mfiondu Kabengele
•Garrison Mathews(claimed off waivers; signed to two-way)
•Trevelin Queen(two-way)
•DeJon Jarreau(10-day)
•Anthony Lamb(two-way)
•Trevor Hudgins(two-way)
•Jae’Sean Tate(3 years, $22.1M)
•Bruno Fernando(two-way)
•Willie Cauley-Stein
•Trhae Mitchell
•Darius Days(claimed off waivers)
•Pierria Henry
•Boban Marjanovic
•Willie Cauley-Stein(10-day)
•D.J. Augustin
•Willie Cauley-Stein
•Darius Days(two-way)
•Trevor Hudgins(two-way)
•Fred VanVleet (3 years, $130M)
•Dillon Brooks (4 years, $86M)
•Jock Landale (4 years, $32M)
•Jeff Green (2 years, $16M)
•Aaron Holiday(1 year, $2.3M)
•Joshua Obiesie
•Jeenathan Williams(E10)
•Nate Hinton(E10)
•Matthew Mayer(E10)
•Jermaine Samuels(two-way)
•Boban Marjanovic
•Reggie Bullock(1 year, $3.1M)
•Jeenathan Williams(two-way)
•Nate Hinton(two-way)


Released/Cut/Waived
•Trevelin Queen
•Jerian Grant
•Trey Mourning
•Josh Reaves
•William McDowell-White
•Gerald Green
•Bruno Caboclo
•Chris Clemons
•DeMarcus Cousins
•Mason Jones
•Justin Patton
•Ben McLemore
•Khyri Thomas
•DaQuan Jeffries
•Matthew Hurt
•Tyler Bey
•Khyri Thomas
•Sekou Doumbouya
•Tyler Bey
•Marcus Foster
•Christian Vital
•Dante Exum
•Anthony Lamb
•Mfiondu Kabengele
•Danuel House Jr.
•Armoni Brooks
•D.J. Augustin
•Enes Freedom
•John Wall
•Ty Jerome
•Mo Harkless
•Theo Maledon
•Trhae Mitchell
•Pierria Henry
•Willie Cauley-Stein
•Derrick Favors
•Boban Marjanovic
•Danny Green
•John Wall
•Justin Holiday
•Daishen Nix
•Joshua Obiesie
•Matthew Mayer
•Nate Hinton
•Darius Days
•Trevor Hudgins
•Jeremiah Robinson-Earl


Trades
•Robert Covington to Portland for Trevor Ariza, Isaiah Stewart & a 2021 1st round pick

•Trevor Ariza, Isaiah Stewart, cash & a 2027 2nd round pick to Detroit for Christian Wood, a 2021 1st round pick & 2021 2nd round pick

•2021 2nd round pick & cash to Sacramento for Kenyon Martin Jr.

•Russell Westbrook to Washington for John Wall & a 2023 1st round pick

•HOU: Victor Oladipo(from IND), Dante Exum(from CLE), Rodions Kurucs(from BRK), 2021 1st round pick(swap; did not convey), 2022 1st round pick, 2022 1st round pick(MIL), 2023 1st round pick(swap; did not convey), 2024 1st round pick, 2025 1st round pick(swap), 2026 1st round pick, 2027 1st round pick(swap)
IND: Caris LeVert(from BRK), 2023 2nd round pick(from HOU)
BRK: James Harden(from HOU), 2024 2nd round pick(from CLE)
CLE: Jarrett Allen(from BRK), Taurean Prince(from BRK)

•2024 2nd round pick(GS) to Cleveland for Kevin Porter Jr.

•P.J. Tucker, Rodions Kurucs, 2021 2nd round pick & 2022 1st round pick to Milwaukee for D.J. Augustin, D.J. Wilson, 2021 1st round pick & 2023 1st round pick

•Victor Oladipo to Miami for Avery Bradley, Kelly Olynyk & a 2022 2nd round pick(swap; did not convey)

•2022 1st round pick(DET) & 2023 1st round pick(WAS) to Oklahoma City for Alperen Şengün

•Cash to Brooklyn for Sekou Doumbouya & 2024 2nd round pick

•Daniel Theis to Boston for Bruno Fernando, Enes Freedom & Dennis Schroder

•Christian Wood to Dallas Mavericks for Sterling Brown, Trey Burke, Marquese Chriss, Boban Marjanović & Wendell Moore Jr.

•Wendell Moore Jr. to Minnesota for TyTy Washington Jr., 2025 2nd round pick & 2027 2nd round pick

•Sterling Brown, Trey Burke, Marquese Chriss & David Nwaba to Oklahoma City for Derrick Favors, Maurice Harkless, Ty Jerome, Theo Maledon, 2026 2nd round pick & 2026 2nd round pick

•Bruno Fernando & Garrison Mathews to Atlanta for Justin Holiday, Frank Kaminsky, 2024 2nd round pick & 2025 2nd round pick

•HOU: John Wall(from LAC), Danny Green(from MEM), 2023 1st round pick(swap via MIL)
LAC: Eric Gordon(from HOU), 2023 1st round pick(swap via MIL), 2024 2nd round pick(from MEM), 2024 2nd round pick(from MEM via TOR), 2027 2nd round pick(from MEM),
MEM: Luke Kennard(from LAC), 2026 2nd round pick(swap; from LAC)

•2024 2nd round pick(BRK) to Brooklyn for Patty Mills and 2028 2nd round pick(MIL)

•LAC: Kenyon Martin Jr.(HOU)
MEM: Josh Christopher(HOU), Vanja Marinkovic(LAC)
ATL: Usman Garuba, TyTy Washington Jr., $1.1M cash, 2025 2nd round pick(MIN) & 2028 2nd round pick(HOU), cash(OKC)

OKC: Patty Mills(HOU) & 2024/2029/2030 2nd round picks(HOU)
HOU: Dillon Brooks(MEM), 2026/2027 2nd round picks(LAC), Alpha Kaba(ATL)

•Kevin Porter Jr., 2027(MIN)/2028(MIL) 2nd round picks to Oklahoma City for Victor Oladipo & Jeremiah Robinson-Earl

•Victor Oladipo, two 2024 2nd round picks & 2025 2nd round pick to Memphis for Steven Adams


Not exclusive to Stone but consistent in the Tilman era, uses 2nd round picks to dump contracts.

Draft
•2020: 2-52 Kenyon Martin Jr.
•2021: 1-2 Jalen Green
•2021: 1-16 Alperen Sengun
•2021: 1-23 Usman Garuba
•2021: 1-24 Josh Christopher
•2022: 1-3 Jabari Smith Jr.
•2022: 1-17 Tari Eason
•2022: 1-29 TyTy Washington Jr.
•2023: 1-4 Amen Thompson
•2023: 1-20 Cam Whitmore
[/QUOTE]

 

Ben Rohrbach/Yahoo Sports did a full breakdown of GMs at the start of this season but the rankings:

1. Danny Ainge, Boston Celtics (2003-2021) • Utah Jazz (2021-)
2. Masai Ujiri, Denver Nuggets (2010-13) • Toronto Raptors (2013-)
3. Brian Wright, San Antonio Spurs (2019-)
4. James Jones, Phoenix Suns (2017-)
5. Kevin Pritchard, Portland Trail Blazers (2007-10) • Indiana Pacers (2017-)
6. Pat Riley, Miami Heat (1995-)
7. Troy Weaver, Detroit Pistons (2020-)
8. Koby Altman, Cleveland Cavaliers (2017-)
9. Brad Stevens, Boston Celtics (2021-)
10. Tim Connelly, Denver Nuggets (2013-22) • Minnesota Timberwolves (2022-)
11. Zach Kleiman, Memphis Grizzlies (2019-)
12. David Griffin, Cleveland Cavaliers (2014-17) • New Orleans Pelicans (2019-)
13. Sam Presti, Oklahoma City Thunder (2007-)
14. Daryl Morey, Houston Rockets (2007-20) • Philadelphia 76ers (2020-)
15. Rob Pelinka, Los Angeles Lakers (2019-)
16. Monte McNair, Sacramento Kings (2020-)
17. Lawrence Frank, Los Angeles Clippers (2017-)
18. Rafael Stone, Houston Rockets (2020-)
19. Jon Horst, Milwaukee Bucks (2017-)
20. Sean Marks, Brooklyn Nets (2016-)
21. Jeff Weltman, Orlando Magic (2017-)
22. Leon Rose, New York Knicks (2020-)
23. Artūras Karnišovas, Chicago Bulls (2020-)
24. Mitch Kupchak, Los Angeles Lakers (2000-17) • Charlotte Hornets (2018-2024)
25. Nico Harrison, Dallas Mavericks (2021-)

(Sample sizes deemed too small for the metric to judge: Denver Nuggets general manager Calvin Booth, Portland Trail Blazers GM Joe Cronin, Atlanta Hawks GM Landry Fields, Washington Wizards team president Michael Winger and Golden State Warriors GM Mike Dunleavy Jr.)

 

On FVV's good games; look no further than last Saturday's win over Phoenix? He was 6 of 11 in threes (54.5 3p%), 24 pts overall. A whopping 73.3 TS% that game.


Fred's 3p% is league average right now at 37.9%. His TS% this season is 55.9%, which is very solid for a starting guard.

In recent games, Green and FVV had been taking turns running plays. FVV's been more than willing to be unselfish and let Green get some burn at PG. I don't think he's to blame.



"It's always best to look inward first before blaming the people around you."

 

Not sure what goalposts you're talking about but I'm certainly not shifting any. I think I've been pretty consistent on how I treat and judge our guys. But year 3 players have to be judged differently than year 1 players. I can tell you definitively that I will call Amen a bust if he looks like he does right now in year 3.

Jalens flashes were so impressive, which is why so many people thought he was going to be a star after year 1, myself included. In year 1 that's really all you have to go off of. But as the years go on, consistent year-over-year improvement becomes way more important than those flashes. So by year 3, after seeing his progress (or lack thereof) up to this point, people are out on Jalen and calling him a bust. That doesn't mean you can't be hopeful about our new rookies, even if the flashes they show are lower than what Jalen showed us.

 

On the draft stuff, I think people (including myself) can quibble on various picks and/or give credit to Eli instead of Stone. But I do think Stone did OK with the picks overall. JC, Garuba, and TyTy didn't work out (throw in Jalen if you'd like), but I generally liked the picks at the time. Seemed like talented prospects, and for whatever reason (including decisions Stone made), it didn't work out.

I do think Stone should get some criticism for actually *wanting* to draft that many players though. I feel like at the time, I thought it was a bit odd to draft 4 (1st rd) rookies one year, and then another 3 the next year (adding on top of guys like KJ, KPJ, and Tate at the time). Now I dismissed that at the time and figured Stone and the team knew what they were doing, but in hindsight, definitely seems like a mistake (especially with all the other stuff going on). Given the lack of picks moving forward, it definitely would have been smarter to try to push those picks out to future years if possible. Or even flip them for some good vets to groom the top young talent, though that definitely wasn't something Stone seemed to prioritize those first few years.

It is usually the asset management type moves that bug me with Stone. He's probably good enough to not be one of the worst GMs, but I'm not sure he's good enough at these kind of things to help push a good team to elite. I'm still upset they didn't move Tate at the deadline (with seemingly 2-3 2nd rd picks available?), and yet he's not even in the rotation (and certainly won't next year without big changes). Jock seems to playing much better lately (low bar), but not having any other decent backup center option for most of the year is not great. Etc.