Offenses are designed to get players open shots. We're getting open shots, but we aren't knocking them down. Everything looks magically better when the ball goes through the net...and defense on the other end picks up as well usually.
Exactly, I remember us complaining about JVG's offense in the same manner, then when he got Jon Barry it just magically clicked....shooting matters. DD
If Jalen Green had made 34 more three point shots and Jabari Smith had made 12 more 3 point shots, then they'd both be shooting 40% from behind the arc. An additional 46 three pointers made over 60 games wouldn't make the Rockets a good offense. Unfortunately, fixing the offense isn't that simple.
Gotta piggyback off of this post - Posted it last week, by the stats: 52% of the minutes played by this team go to players shooting .308 or worse and the guy that takes the most 3's per game is shooting .308 - the others are all worse. If .308 is the ceiling for over half your minutes - you have a problem.
That would move them up to about #14 in the league in points per game if they hit those shots alone...I'm assuming if they were hitting those shots, that would help create space for other players as well. But they're not, so the defense can sag off clog things up.
That would actually put them in the top half of the league in offense between those two players alone. Just 2 more points per game puts them as a top 15 team in ppg. Now imagine if Jalen had a reliable 3 ball what that would do for his driving...Imagine how it'd help others by drawing extra defenders... I made a post in here a while ago, but just two more made threes from the team as a whole per game would make them the sixth highest scoring team in the league. The gap between us and the worse offensive team in the league is larger than the gap between us and the 6th highest scoring team.
It still wouldn't make them a good offense which is what they need to be. Green hitting one additional 3 every other game wouldn't do anything for his driving. He'd still have the same issues. The opposing big man is still going to be sitting in the paint just like they are right now. Do you think that the opponents would change an effective defense just because he hits one additional 3 every other game? Why would they? If you want to open up driving lanes for all of our wing players, then you're going to have to force the opposing big man out of the paint. Do that and Green, Thompson and Whitmore will have room to operate. Van Vleet might even get a few drives. The Rockets need to learn to get good shots - especially down the stretch. I believe that Udoka is trying to get them there but they certainly aren't there yet. We need some easy baskets. With the young guys, we've gotten some in transition which is great. Now we need to get some easy hoops in the half court. Let's get a lot more assists going towards the hoop rather than always throwing it out to the perimeter. Let's bump up the corner threes. Let's get some drives. There's a whole lot that we need to improve on before we're a good offense.
This offense sucks because its predictable and hardly installs new wrinkles or expands the shot zones particularly elbow action and baseline 3 point shooting. That should be a point of emphasis every game and every press conference Udoka attends. If you know you have suspect outside shooting what are you doing to account for that? This team offers no contingency planning. They dont mix and match play styles. Its a tedious process when it should flow naturally with the assortment of talent we have. Udoka needs an offensive coordinator.
As I said in another reply, hitting 46 additional three pointers for the season won't create any additional space. The paint isn't clogged because perimeter guys are sagging in. It's clogged because that's where the opposing big stays all game long and on Sengun post ups, teams run double teams at him. It's not like teams are ignoring Green or Thompson on the perimeter. Green still has a top defender on him and they typically don't leave either of those guys on the perimeter. They don't want either of them to get up to full speed and have a path to the hoop. Same reason that teams didn't leave Rodman alone on the perimeter, you didn't want to turn him loose on the glass. We've seen Amen and Green when they get going full speed and they're very hard to stop.
I don't know what your definition of good is, but I'd consider a top 15 (potentially top 10) offense with this group "good".
I consider an offense to be good when they can consistently score points and they can get good shots in close games and actually make a good number of those shots. The current Rockets are neither of those things. I think everyone will agree that the defense has been good this season. Yet, we've only lost three games by 3 points or less all season. Many times the games have been effectively over but we close the gap in garbage time. That looks much better in stats but the reality is that less than one additional 3 pointer per game wouldn't have changed our record a whole lot. The other variation is that the game is close and then we can't do anything down the stretch in the 4th quarter and the opponents pull away. The offense can get better (and it has to) but it's not as simple as making less than one additional 3 pointer per game to solve the issues. Not sure if that answers your question or not. Basically, a "good" offense, along with our good defense, would help us win games. I don't believe that 46 additional 3 pointers over the course of the season would have changed our Win/Loss much. We still have way too many multi-minute scoring droughts to be a good offense.
Just looking at fg% at the rim or anywhere for a defender doesn't tell you the whole story. If Fred Van Vleet shoots 50% at the rim against me and Giannis shoots 50% at the rim against you, then we have the same defensive stats on those plays. Obviously, those two things aren't equal. You need to look at who the player was defending. NBA.Com has a stat called "Defensive Dashboard". They show the FG% for a defender and it also shows what the expected FG% would be on those shots based on who took them. From there, they compute a difference % to determine how you're effecting the expected outcome. For example, if Shaq shoots an average of 65% from within 3 feet and a player holds him to 60%, then the Difference % is -5. He held him to 5% below his normal fg% on the shots that he took. Looking at the stats for various players, you can see some patterns: Valanciunus - His differential against the league on shots within 6 feet of the hoop is -0.1%. So, he holds opponents to their normal average on those shots. Now if you look at the same stats against the Rockets only, his difference% goes up to -7.4%. He's holding the entire league to their normal average but against the Rockets, he holds them to 7.4% below their normal shooting percentage on the shots he's defending. Sabonis - -4.8% against the league. -7.4% against the Rockets. Jokic - 0% against the league. -7.4 against the Rockets. Miles Turner - -2.8% against the league. -19.4% against the Rockets. Wembanyama - -9.9% against the league. -25.7% against the Rockets. Poelte - -6.7 against the league. +4 against the Rockets. The Rockets do better against him than the rest of the league does. Duren - -5 against the league. +3.2 against the Rockets. The Rockets do better against him than the rest of the league does. What does that tell us? It says that keeping a big man in the paint against the Rockets is very effective. That's the reason that we see it every game. Sengun isn't getting shut down by these guys, he usually still gets his numbers on a good percentage. The guys who's percentages are being effected is our wing players. The strength for Green and Thompson is driving to the hoop but if they have to consistently challenge the opposing center on each drive they are not going to be successful. Same for Whitmore, Brooks or whoever else drives the ball to the hoop. IMO to fix the offense, this is the issue that we have to solve. Fix this problem and then we start getting some easy hoops on drives and racking up fouls on the opposing defenses. Here's the defensive dashboard stats for within 6 feet on the NBA site. You can use the advanced filters to isolate players for specific teams vs other teams. You can also change the zone for the stats ( <6ft, <10ft, <15ft, Overall, etc... ) to look at different criteria. https://www.nba.com/stats/players/defense-dash-lt6
The guards/wings need to be better at finishing around the rim. Should at least strive for league average against team's centers packing the paint. Players used to do it decades past, before stretch 4, and later stretch 5 became a thing. Even with stretch 5 becoming more in Vogue, it still only make around 25% of today's NBA teams. Git gud.
In past decades zone defense wasn't legal and you couldn't double a player without the ball. Under those rules it would be simple - on some possessions, pull Sengun out above the arc and his defender has to clear the lane. Expecting your guards to beat their man and continually finish against centers is a losing proposition. Unless, of course, you've got a generational wing player on your team...we don't.
Indeed Teams Shooting Dashboard Closest Defender | Stats| Stats | NBA.com If Im interpreting this correctly a full 49% of the Rocket's shots come either open (4-6 feet space) or wide open (6+) The same math says a full 90% of their 3 point attempts are equally open or wide open. Im not sure how much i trust all the data tbh, but assuming its ballpark correct, generating open shots isn't the problem.
2.4. Absolutely true. The problem is also that if you swap Jalen for a 40% three-point shooter that guy has to be able to penetrate and have a little bit of gravity as well. Green has been bad overall but I still think there are some positives he brings. If we go to upgrade based on shooting percentages, we still have to be cognizant of not losing those entirely if that makes sense.
It's also possible that you don't need JG's ability to get in the lane if we had better shooters. Spacing opens up everything and you can run more of an Alpi centric offense, or DB/Bari get one extra drive attempt per game type stuff. Also, let's be honest, there aren't a lot of Klay type players. Most of the time, if you are getting a shooting guard that can hit 40% from 3, they at least have SOME ability to drive.
The historical context is understood, so didn't write it. But mentioned it because, the capable players still played against tall trees. The stats cited for example with Poeltl is his average against the penetrators of other teams, which could include superstars but also the Dennis Scheoders of the world. Our wings/guards are not superstars, but their goal should still strive for average against the other centers of the league. Improve their inside game, instead hoping for an environmental change where Rocket's center ends up being one of those 25% teams where the C is stretched. 75% other teams don't have stretch 5's, other teams backourt / wings also play against the Poeltl of the worlds. Ime's message should be: 'Get better instead of looking for an easy button.' 5 out is a luxury. Very few teams, maybe 1 team; Celtics has all five starters who can space. 3-4 is normal, not unreasonable. 3 non shooters is pushing it. Our guards/wings should be focusing on leveling up. Instead wishing the paint to be open because of other reasons.
