https://blogs.fangraphs.com/names-to-know-100-more-relevant-prospects/ Corona, Melton, and Dezenzo got mentioned as 100 guys to know outside the Top 100. Mildly surprised Whitley, Arrighetti, Baez, and Loperfido didn’t get a nod in there.
1st minor league note from ST for me has been that Chase Jaworsky, Alberto Hernandez, Waner Luciano, and Luis Baez have all gotten in multiple big league spring games. Hopefully that means Hernandez, Jaworksky, and Luciano will be assigned to Fayetteville to open the season which would be a big opportunity for them; at a minimum it at least shows the FO thinks it’s worthwhile to get them exposed to big league players. Based on early buzz from camp, I think the following guys have raised their stock: Joey Loperfido Pedro Leon Luis Baez Brice Matthews Chase Jaworsky Alberto Hernandez Waner Luciano Spencer Arrighetti Aaron Brown John Garcia Tyler Whitaker Garret Guillemette Drew Strotman Tyler Guilfoil
Brice Matthews is probably the rawest college player I have seen taken high in the draft in recent memory. He is so raw that I don’t know what to expect from him the next couple years. I will say that the talent is obvious watching him - he has legit Barry Larkin type athleticism and power… but he has to actually do it.
This is a cool tool compiling AAA stacast stats for pitchers: https://ggiiwm-timothy-chen.shinyapps.io/MinorLeagueStatcastTim/
Was thinking about what I hope to see from various Astros prospects this year, and came up with a list of “realistic tipping point” stats for some guys that would indicate they’ve taken significant steps forward: Chase Jaworsky, Kenni Gomez, Nehomar Ochoa, Anthony Huezo, Alberto Hernandez, Cesar Hernandez, Dauri Lorenzo, Will Bush: wRC+ >110 over >200 pa in Fayetteville; these young hitters with defensive value just need to get assigned in full season ball and not be overmatched. Waner Luciano: wRC+ >120 in >200 pa in Fayetteville; he’s more limited defensively so he needs to really hit wherever he’s assigned Luis Baez, Brice Matthews, Oliver Carrillo, Cam Fisher, Cristian Gonzalez: wRC+ >130 over >200 pa in High A; high ceiling hitters just need to produce and get to AA College later round draftees (Guillemette, Casserilla, Johnson, Williams, Deming, Ferreras): wRC+ >120 over >200 pa in Asheville; these older lesser prospects just need to produce enough to put themselves on the map and put themselves in position to start 2025 in AA. Zach Cole, Tyler Whitaker, Zach Daniels, Jacob Melton, Pedro Leon, Shay Whitcomb, Jordan Brewer: k% < 25%, bb% > 10%; these power/speed guys need to prove they are making progress on addressing strikeout concerns Miguel Palma: 70 g at C, wRC+ >100 in AA; just needs to play the position and hit just enough to be on an MLB trajectory Kenedy Corona, Collin Barber, Zach Dezenzo: wRC+ >140 over >200 pa in AA; these high ceiling guys need to dominate AA and mark themselves as future core pieces Joey Loperfido, Will Wagner, Quincy Hamilton: wRC+ >120 over >200 pa in AAA; these lefty bats need to show they’re ready to contribute to the big league roster, I have higher hopes for Loperfido (a wRC+ >140 would mark him as a potential future core player), but at a minimum they need to excel in AAA. All other hitters: wRC+ >110 over >200 pa. Non-prospects just need to have success where they’re assigned and move up to keep themselves on the radar.
Most of the Astros Minor Leagues is Cuban Players. I hope the Astros open the Venezuela Academy again. Jose Altuve signing from Venezuela changed everything about the Astros.
You realize less than 5% of the players in the Astros minor leagues are from Cuba, right? The Astros have been very successful scouting areas they feel are under scouted or under valued. Venezuela became over saturated with scouts and eyeballs so the Astros moved the focus somewhere else. SMART. That's also why you don't see a big Astros presence in Asia.
Luis Baez, Bryce Matthews, Spencer Arrighetti are Stars Jacob Melton Bating Stance reminds me of Luis Gonzalez.
The most recent source I could find was the press release of signing Luis Aviles Jr in June 2023 referencing 23 Cuban players in the system. Baseball Reference shows 319 total players were in the Astros system at some point last year. 23 would be about 7% so my 5% comment was a tad low.
You two are using two different metrics. He is quoting "% of minor league Cubans who are in the Astros system" and you are quoting "% of Astros minor league players who are Cuban". I don't know the numbers, but you could both be right (and with 23 players, you probably are both pretty close)
Good to see Miguel Palma hit a HR in the big league ST game today. If he can get to some power he might be a good prospect. He has 20 HR in his last 153 minor league games so there’s some power there. Hes also pretty consistently posted k% <20% and had healthy walk rates. He’s probably the best catching prospect in the system, although that isn’t saying much.
Assuming Kessinger and Singleton hang on to the final 2 bench spots, I am getting really optimistic about how good the AAA lineup will be: 1. LF Quincy Hamilton: posted great bb/k numbers in AAA last season but was fighting an injury which affected his running and power; that’s behind him now so he could break out 2. RF Joey Loperfido: coming off a 25 HR/27 SB season 3. CF Pedro Leon: coming off a 21 HR/21 SB season, should get a boost from being healthy and focusing solely on CF 4. 1B Trey Cabbage: coming off a 30/30 season 5. DH Corey Julks: has consistently crushed AAA pitching; 31 HR/22 SB in AAA in 2022 6. 3B Will Wagner: should get a boost from being healthy, has hit consistently through the minors 7. SS Shay Whitcomb: coming off a 35 HR/20 SB season 8. 2B David Hensley: looking to rebound but posted a wRC+ of 130 in a full AAA season in 2022 9. C Cesar Salazar: weak hitter overall but walked as much as he struck out in AAA last season Bench: Justin Dirden, CJ Stubbs, Luke Berryhill, Dixon Machado: none of these guys are top prospects but Dirden and Stubbs have substantial offensive upside; even Berryhill has a chance to be a major leaguer, Machado is a classic AAAA SS
Was looking thru the fangraphs Dodgers top prospect list and it struck me how they acquired their best prospects. They have 6 of the top 100 prospects and their farm is generally considered among the 3-5 best in the league. But like Houston, they’ve been picking at the back of the draft and have been active deadline buyers for most of the last decade. So here’s where their top prospects came from: 1. SP River Ryan: trade from SD for bench OF Matt Beaty 2. C Dalton Rushing: 2nd rd pick 2022 3. C Diego Cartaya: 2018 intl signee ($2.5M bonus) 4. C Thayron Liranzo: 2021 intl signee 5. SP Kyle Hurt: traded from MIA for RP Dylan Floro 6. SS Joendry Vargas: 2023 intl signee ($2.1M bonus) 7. OF Andy Pages: 2017 intl signee 8. OF Josue De Paula: 2022 intl signee 9. SS Emil Morales: 2024 intl signee ($2.4M bonus) 10. SP Nick Frasso: traded from TOR for P Mitch White so that’s 1 2nd rd draft pick, 3 big bonus intl signees, 3 minor trades where they robbed the other team, and 3 small bonus intl signees. Theres really no reason Houston couldn’t be in a similar position, although they’ve made less of the minor sell side trades the last 2 years. Oliver Carrillo and Kenedy Corona are the only 2 trade acquisitions who might break out. Brice Matthews, Alonzo Tredwell, and Jacob Melton are top draft picks who could make a move. Pedro Leon, Luis Baez, Camilo Diaz, Cesar Hernandez, and Esmil Valencia are big bonus intl signees in the system.
So you are saying the Dodgers have traded away guys who are fringe contributors, and not expected to be major pieces in the post season before they hit FA in order to boost their prospect capital? Guys like Stanek and Maton? Guys like Seth Martinez, Corey Julks, and Parker Mushinski among others will be in the near future?
The players LA traded away weren’t all that close to free agency, and I don’t know if Houston’s fringe players match up exactly. It looks like LA capitalized on some fringey guys showing well in the early going, so they sold high. If one of Houston’s lesser arms like Martinez, Mushinski, Ortega, Sousa, or Bielak (or one of their lesser position players like Julks, Singleton, etc.) gets a chance and shines (but Houston thinks they’re playing above their true talent level), then it would make sense to trade them, but the other half of that was LA clearly identified the right prospects in the other teams’ systems. Ryan, Hurt, and Frasso weren’t highly thought of prospects when LA traded for them. My main point was that it’s possible for a team in Houston’s position to maintain a good farm system, it just requires being very proactive in the fringe trade market and being very successful in developing lesser pedigreed talent. I do think Houston looks to be doing a good job with later draft picks. Dezenzo is the clearest example, but Wagner, Loperfido, and Cole are other prospects drafted after the 1st few rounds who look to have a lot of potential.
When the system had Goldstein and Elias, they were pretty active and good at raiding the minor league systems of other teams in trades. Now, it doesn't happen as often. Hopefully that changes with Brown as GM. The Astros now have a number of long term/high lever scouts in the system that should be able to identify gems early.
