This is backwards. Using watches that could be used to communicate with players is what started this and I never heard anyone accuse the Astros of that. Manfred's letter to the teams was explicit on this issue. He sent out a second letter after the fact that was more open to interpretation that was used to accuse the Astros of cheating. I think you are wrong about this but I will not continue to have this conversation either way. Not because of ill feelings toward you but because I think continuing just exacerbates bad feelings all around.
Respect. I could be wrong. I haven't obsessed over it and poured over the research. I'm human and certainly not infallible. And I too don't want ill feelings and am willing to move on.
I can think of 8 SP that are currently available that would, on the field, theoretically improve the Astros rotation. 3 of them are Urias, Bauer, and German who have such severe off field issues that they are not options. Cease is available in trade, but considering the White Sox are asking for 2 top 100 and 2 additional legitimate prospects, even if the price drops significantly then the Astros simply don't have the bullets. Snell would be a homerun but they would need to outbid other teams, pay a tax for being over the CBT, plus surrender another high draft pick because SD offered him a QO. Montgomery would be a very good add but also need to be highest bidder and pay a CBT penalty. There is also the risk of paying that much only for him to not be better than 4 of healthy Framber, JV, Javier, Brown, and/or McCullers and therefore in the bullpen for the post season, but thatsca good problem. If the depth for the regular season is considered good and the worry is for the post season, then Vince Velazquez could be a shrewd pickup. He would not be expensive and an upgrade from Urquidy and France. He is possibly an upgrade from Garcia and on a similar timetable in recovery from TJS. If healthy, he would be a no doubt rotation member. I think the best move would be Brandon Woodruff. It's probably 50/50 whether he pitches in 2024 but is the kind of pitcher that simply does not become available often. If he can return the Astros would have an exceptional arm for the post season even if he isn't built up to start. Then they would have another Cy Young candidate next year. Most teams are going to offer him a 2 year pillow deal in the $30M range. To outbid them, I would offer him a 3 year $55M deal with an opt out after year 2 and 2 vesting years at $30M each if he pitches at least 300 innings total in yrs 2 and 3 and passes a physical. $5M-$15M-$25M + $30M-$30M He can opt out after yr 2, but in order to reasonably expect to outperform the 3 yr $85M he would likely have a good 2025 and be well on his way to triggering the option. If he does opt out, the Astros likely get a high performing SP for 1 year and possibly a contributing pitcher to another post season for $20M. If he doesn't opt out, it's a risk but worst case is probably a Lance McCullers-esque lots of injury time but good pitching when available for $50M over 3 seasons. Worth the risk? I think so.
Thats quite an interesting idea for sure, Woodruff. We would have 3 on IR for chunk of 2024 but 2025 would set the table in a genius fashion for sure.
Not buying Velasquez as necessarily better than the guys you are talking about, but think you’ve conceptualized it correctly.
Snell could set up the rotation... Till JV gets back Framber Javier Snell Hunter Brown JP I got chills they're multiplying!
Or he could have a 4+ ERA like he has in 3 of his 7 seasons. He has had 2 fabulous seasons, 2018 and 2023, 2 more seasons where he was good but in limited innings, and 3 seasons where he was ehhh This is why teams are having a hard time signing him to a long term deal. Dude was tremendous last year, but still walked 99 guys. He walks a tightrope, and some years he is so good it works, other years he is good but not good enough to dominate with crap control. I would be all in on a BIG one year contract for him (isn't happening) but even so, history says it likely wouldn't work out in our favor
It's fascinating some fans are so amped about giving a massive contract to a pitcher who has only thrown 130 innings twice in his career. You are much more likely to get the Blake Snell from the other years than CY young Snell.
Considering how SP health became a problem last year, and we're starting the year with two SP on the shelf (and two more behind schedule with JV and France) if a SP is going to be added I would prioritize health, durability, and innings. Astros need depth reinforcement, not a projection for down the line. So no to Woodruff, Velasquez, or to a lesser extent, Snell. I'll take Montgomery if he can be gotten.
Even the Cy Young versions only through 180 innings, which is historically a low number. Of course I'd love to see that be the max any of our starters throw, but that has to do with how many innings our main starters have had to throw through all of our postseason success. Snell's walk rate is also a major red flag.
The thought with a lot of fans is that there is never enough. I have friends that are Dodgers fans and they are upset that the Dodgers haven't signed Snell and are pissed they didn't go up to $100,000,000 over 5 years to get Hader.
Breakout years: Diaz, Pena, Meyers, Brown, Whitley, Coleman, Sousa Good years: J Abreu, Bregman, Tucker, Alvarez, Dubon, Caratini, Javier, Garcia, Hader, B Abreu Down years: Altuve, McCormick, Verlander, Framber, Urquidy, France, McCullers, Pressly
