I am very happy with the pitching going into the season. The position players is a completely different story. I think it's very top heavy. C) I love this position. It's probably as good a 1-2 punch thecteam has had in some time. In the event of an injury to one of them the other should be capable to increase his workload with limited reduction in production. Salazar, Berryhill, or Stubbs could all be fine for 20% of the starts over a 2-3 week time period if that happened. 1B) Abreu should be much better than last year. The average of his last 2 seasons puts him at about 120 wRC+ which looks about right. Fangraphs projections have him at 108 which would still be fine for the 6th-7th best hitter on the team. The issue is his age and the announcement that the team intends to give him regular rest throughout the season. While I think this is a good idea, it gives Singleton more playing time and I don't have nearly as much confidence in him as the Astros appear to. I think a veteran 1 day per week starter/backnup/insurance type acquisition is needed here. 2B) I don't have to say anything here do I? MVP potential and Dubon proved to be a solid backup. 3B) I expect Bregman to have his best season since 2019 as a FA showcase and he will have very few days off. Because of that Kessinger as a backup is fine. The problem is that it becomes a huge problem if Alex misses any time with injury. SS) This position is fine. Pena should have about league average offense with exceptional defense and play nearly everyday. That is great considering the other bats on this team.Dubon or Kessinger are fine as backup or injury fill in for the most part unless it ends up being a season ending type and then should be reconsidered. LF) McCormick (2/3) and Alvarez (1/3) look to share this spot which will work out great as Long as Chas isn't needed in CF. If Chas is needed in CF it becomes an issue because Alvarez can't really take over as the starter. The Astros have prospects who have the talent to step in, but just as likely could end up bad like 2023 Julks. CF) Meyers looks to have first Crack here and if he can manage to be close to average with the bat (say >92 wRC+) then it fixes a few other potential issues. I REALLY don't like Dubon's lack of run production in the OF but if Jake falters it turns into a choice between that and keeping Chas in LF, moving Chas and creating a hole in LF, or hoping one of the youngsters is ready. RF) see Bregman. As long as Tucker is healthy this will be a huge everyday strength for this team. The problem is there is no backup. Chas has played there when Kyle needs a day off, but has a very very below average arm for a RF. Not having a proven veteran that can play here for insurance is probably the biggest risk the team has based on the current roster. DH) Yordan looks to be in the lineup here about 2/3 of the time and the team wants to give Abreu some semi-rest here (and would probably benefit by giving Altuve time also) By not bringing in a veteran corner OF/1B as OF insurance and part time 1B instead of using Singleton this team is risking several wins IMO. Considering how cheap and available those players are this continues to puzzle me.
This Montero is likely being paid more than he is worth this year and next, but the difference is negligible for a team with over $250M payroll. The only reason Montero's salary should remotely matter to the fans is if ownership uses it as an excuse to not bring in another player- clearly this is not an issue so his salary does not matter. He is a perfectly good bullpen arm as the 5th or 6th best guy, and has potential to be a great #4. He was very good the majority of 2022 and perfectly solid the 2nd half of 2023. Let's stop acting like this is an Eric Hosmer type disaster
Getting crazy: sign bellinger- 6/150 sign Snell- 6/150 sign Soler- 2/25 extend Altuve- 6/110 Trade Chas, McCullers, Urquidy, Montero and Graveman to someone or someone’s for a couple minor leaguers. Yes I know nobody wants pay McCullers or Montero and Graveman won’t pitch this year and makes 8M, that’s what the big time extra value is for in Chas and to a lesser extend Urquidy heading out. Plenty of teams would be happy to do that deal. 62.5 million added to the payroll 48M subtracted from the payroll- net 14M still keeps us under tax line number 2. That 14M costs Jimbo 18M total with the tax. 24 team: Diaz/abreu/altuve/pena/bregman/soler/bellinger/tucker/yordan bench: Meyers kessinger, Vic caratini, Dubon Rotation: JV/Snell/framber/javier/Brown bullpen: France/garcia/whitley/Souza/tons of choices here/ Hader/abreu/presley 25- Bregman walks and our #1 prospect is a 3rd baseman comes up and the Astros shed 30M in real salary and 20 M on the cap and duck back under the tax line to first tax. If you develop a good OF from the minors amongst a ton of candidates you could then trade Abreu and slide Bellinger to first and then be absurdly stacked still. after 25 Framber and Tucker, Presley, JV all likely leave and your core through ‘28 is: Snell, Brown, Javier, Hader, France, Garcia, Bellinger, Altuve, Pena, Yordan. Thats 170M or so for those 10 guys. Thats a playoff team if you develop at all around them all 3 years. If you develop well and maybe make 1 more big FA signing that’s maybe a WS contender below the tax line.
Diaz isn't going to catch everyday. Catchers that hit like Diaz typically play elsewhere 20-35% of their games. I'd guess Diaz is playing, but not catching at least 40 games as long as both catchers stay healthy. On Singleton, he's going to have to hit to play. I'm not as high on him as the team seems, but with Espada as manager, I think Caratini at C with DIaz elsewhere in lineup happens more than SIngleton plays unless Singleton is actually good.
A slight overpay? I knew he wasn't worth more than 6-8 million. Agreed it's not crippling, but it's one or 2 more key pieces to the overall puzzle you could be signing instead of having an afterthought bullpen piece like Montero.
The Astros will have good options at every position when guys get hurt or need rest. I agree Caratini is good enough to give Diaz most of the backup time at 1B. But I also think Singleton has value as a 13th position player, a lefthanded power bat who represents a legit HR/walk threat every time he pinch hits. Barring a huge rash of injuries, the 13th position player is only in line for ~100 pa, and a lot of that comes as a pinch hitter, so the best fit is either a guy with elite power, or a guy who can pinch run.
I think it depends on the rest of the roster. With Meyers as the everyday CF and McCormick in LF, there’s very little need for a defense-first OF on the bench. Theres no room for a defense-first SS or 3B, and with both Dubon and Kessinger on the bench, that need is even further reduced. So that 13th spot is all about offense, and could fill the following needs: Lineup balance Pinch hitting for on base Pinch hitting for power Pinch running Singleton fills 3 out of those 4. I think there’s more value/opportunity for pinch hit and lineup balance than pinch running. I think if they want a pinch runner on the bench, Kessinger would be the one displaced. One thing I could see is a LHH with both power and speed (Loperfido or Melton come to mind) taking Singleton’s spot.
I hope your optimism becomes justified, but to me, Singleton doesnt fill a single need. He just isnt a good player.
He carries a lot of risk, but for the role he is slotted into, that is to be expected. A 13th position player is almost always either a veteran who is just barely hanging on (age-related decline risk), a prospect just coming up (bust risk), a guy who is just mediocre at a lot of things (low ceiling risk), or a guy who does just one thing well (utility risk). Singleton is an odd case, but hes clearly demonstrated he possesses elite power potential and he hits lefthanded. Anyone who watched him in AAA in 2023 saw an absolute monster. Who knows if he can capture that in the majors. But I like him in the role he is in.
I was more talking in general terms but if Jake is the every day CF then yeah. I’d still take a Terrance Gore type (on this team) over singleton but it’s a lot closer for all the reasons you said.
What I inferred from listening to Dana Brown, is that Abreu will get regular rest and Singleton (not one of the catchers, or Kessinger) is the guy they expect to play 1st when he is on the bench. If they give Abreu 30 days off that's 125 PA for Singleton just there + another 30 or so if he PH or DHs in a game. I hope Jon is good but fear those 155ish PAs could be much better given to someone else ( but nobody currently projected to be on the 26 man)
I don’t think Singleton should be on the major league roster . He had basically one big game after he was called up and then wasn’t clutch at all pinch hitting. I’d rather give someone else in the minors a shot at pinch hitting and who is more flexible defensively in the field . Singleton is one dimensional and doesn’t perform that dimension well
Mets signing Ottavino to a 1 year $4.5 mil deal. Seems cheap. Astros might be done with their bullpen but wouldn't have minded him at the price or even a little more. Then again, maybe he doesn't want to be behind 3 pitchers in the depth chart
I love your optimism, I am a contrarian. Sometimes I can't help but see the other side. C) I do not give a half a damn about Diaz's bat. The catcher has many more important roles to play and Diaz is untried at best. Additionally we have plenty of bench for a week or two but none at all for a month or two. There could be a great outcome here but there could also be an awful one. 1st base) Abreu should be much better than last year, but could be much worse too. The available bench players here have no chance unless Brown recognizes the need to have Loperfido on the roster and trades away Singleton, Julks or Dubon to make a spot for him. He is an extremely valuable and versatile bench player to have available when your first baseman is elderly and can string together epic weakness. Come to think about it I would prefer Loperfido to all 3 of our bench bats put together. 2nd base) MVP potential and Kessinger proved to be a solid backup. SS) This position is fine. Pena should have an above league average offense along with exceptional defense and play nearly everyday. 3rd base) I expect Bregman to have his usual excellent season. Along with his usual missed time due to some niggling injury. Fortunately as long as he and Abreu are down at different times Loperfido will make an acceptable bench player a 3rd base too. If Bregman goes down later in the season or if his down time is coincidental with Abreu's Dezenzo will be a better option to fill in at the hot corner. DH) Alvarez will play almost exclusively at DH and could have his healthiest season yet. LF) McCormick looks to cover this spot which will work out great. Chas will not be needed to relieve in CF after Corona is brought up to play the 4th outfielder. He can play all 3 outfielder positions very well and should also have the bat needed to keep him up. CF) Meyers is the hopeful here but I have little confidence that it will play out for him. If he washes out early McCormick will have to move over to fill in. If he can hold out long enough Melton could be ready. RF) As long as Tucker is healthy this will be a huge everyday strength for this team. As I have already said Corona can play all 3 outfield positions. If Tucker has a long or permanant injury he will be very hard to replace. There is some chance that Dirdan or Daniels could be forced into service but as long as it looks like we are contending I would expect a trade, perhaps of tucker himself as long as he likely to recover. By not bringing in a some rookie talent to upgrade our bench this team is risking several wins IMO. The Contrarian View.
As a small correction, Bregman has played in 155 and 161 games the last two years. He hasn’t had “usual” missed time for two seasons.
