All the economic indicators would point to an incumbent Reagan like re-election. The economy and Bidens accomplishments should in any normal period in our history lead to an easy re-election. Then there is the fact that not only would that incumbent be strong but the challenger is historically weak. Imagine if Walter Mondale was also found liable for sexual assault, had 91 counts indicted for, tried to overturn democracy, was running to become a dictator, and was so old he had crapped his pants and lost his train of thought regularly. That’s how bad this election SHOULD BE for republicans. However it’s not showing in the polls IF they are to be believed. The polls show a neck and neck race which does not bode well for the electoral college curve that Republicans get to enjoy. Even with a 8 to 10 point lead in the polls in 2020, Biden won the swing states by 1 to 3 pts. So yeah if the polls are to be believed, nobody should be surprised if Trump wins, but by every other historical indicator, Biden should have a massive re-election victory. I personally only find it fruitless to debate national polls and think it’s more beneficial to instead wait till the polls start showing us what is happening in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Arizona. Still there’s reason to see that there’s something different happening with the electorate that should send the Biden campaign team and organizers into hyperdrive. Dont freak out, but get motivated and organize.
not challenging you, but do you really think some of the asians and Muslims who voted for Biden last time will drop off even when Trump is on other side? I can definitely see the Israel conflict is affecting Biden support in Democratic Party but at what alternatives? All these polls that show Biden very low started around the timing of this conflict. I think everything will fall in place and both parties will rally behind their leaders. They will find something to convince themselves they are doing it right. It all boils down to that small percentage of ‘real’ independents I cannot foresee majority of them picking Trump for Biden but I have been wrong enough times to not bet on it
I do think he will get a smaller share of these groups. Biden's unconditional support of Israel will cost him some Muslim votes, even though Trump is even bigger supporter of Israel, that is because Biden is currently in charge. Biden will lose some Asian votes due to things like supreme court's the decision of remove affirmative action in higher education. I have no doubt Biden win these groups, just not by as large a margin as last time. When the election is close, margins matter.
It’s my personal opinion that the larger national polls all show a low approval rating for Biden (or any Democrat) because the progressive left (which is a good chunk of the party currently) will never be satisfied with any Democrat almost ever…. But that doesn’t mean that they are going to vote for Trump ever. The biggest threat to Biden is the stay at home factor, and the third party vote. Cornell West for sure is the biggest threat and is doing the bidding of Putin just as Jill Stein did previously. A lot of progressives will see through it, but a lot will care more about showing how pure their liberal chops are by voting for West. They don’t really believe in our Constitutional framework to begin with so that’s why they rationalize allowing Trump to win so we can just fantasize about a future leftist revolution movement. The one guy who can really have an impact here in pulling Biden back up with the far left is Bernie Sanders who might be the most important surrogate that Biden can get this Summer. I do believe that Bernie cares enough and understands the stakes enough to do what he can… but imo this is the biggest area of concern. The stay at home or third party voters from the left and a small percentage of African American and Latino men that continue to trickle away from the Democrats. That trickle has been offset by suburban white women who i think will be there for Biden in a big way.
I somewhat agree, and I’m not entirely convinced about the decline in anti-Trump sentiment. I believe it has increased, not decreased. The last time was before January 6th, the 500 criminal indictments, and the overturning of Roe. It has definitely become a different landscape with essentially two constants. The only data we can rely on is from the elections since 2020 and the polls. There has been a disconnect between them, with the elections favoring Democrats more than the polls indicated (and the general Biden is dragging down the party sentiment). Whatever the case, a 60/40 split is essentially a coin flip. I really don’t trust my instincts on this election. It feels kind of weird and crazy – two wars, inflation, an actual great economy, old as hell, AI bots, criminals, democracy… Lately, it’s interesting that the main message from Republicans is the southern border; I do have doubts that it’s going to carry the day for them. So, if that continue to be their main message, it's somewhat telling.
I would be SHOCKED .. . . If this happened. If the democrats are putting their hopes on White Women . . . . then all is lost Rocket River I don't think White Women have voted Democrat this century. . . . even with a white woman running
based on what? last time there was no vivid eg of how stupid Trump-induced, via SC, abortion ban is. post Trump term, there have been several sad eg there was no indicictions / conviction against trump post Trump term, there have been 91 indictions there was no vivid eg of accomplishments by President Biden's administration steady impressive job creation every month in office. passed large infrastructure bill; it was merely a talking point for Trump during his 4 years in office based on the vivid eg noted above, there will be more independents voting for Biden based on what? based on what? not based on the last presidential election result, when Biden won by the largest popularity votes ever.
Biden's low approval ratings and some polls showing Trump ahead in swing states. It should be a close race either way, but I think Trump is favored at this point IMO.
you r confused & mistaken. as corroborated by Nikki Haley / diet Trump's teams, the polls show that, as of now, Trump is the only opponent that Biden can beat.
This was my feeling as well. The 'dislike Trump' ledger will have more credits than debits since everything he has done after last election was just doubling down on things that didn’t work for him. I think he is more exposed than in 2020. It will not make difference for Republican Party voters but may do for independents. The no-show voters are definitely a concern but after 2016 debacle I doubt this will happen. What ever it is , I see that Biden's team will have their handsful. The amount of misinformation feed(in bannon’s words- flood the zone with BS) is going to be record breaking. I hope biden's team does a better job fighting back than Hillary's team did.
I state this is just my opinion at this moment of time. We will se if it is correct in November, I won't move Trump because he is a narcissist liar who only cares about himself, but he has a dedicated following group that does not care what he does right or wrong.
In the suburbs there absolutely was enough of a shift in the past few election cycles strictly because of Donald Trump's baggage. Yes the polling is classified as "suburban women" and not white women. However it's safe to assume while white women in the suburbs might still lean Republican, the Trump shift in recent years is that pocket of voters that Biden should have no problem keeping given recent events, Trump being found liable for rape, and whatever BS he brings to the campaign over the next few months.
Trump hardly beat Nikki Haley who isn't even a real canidate! He only beat Haley by 11 points and he got clobbered in every educated district and was ran behind Nikki by double digits in independent districts. I don't get why people think trump is this juggernaut. If the economy improves and Fed cuts rates and the war ends then biden should win.
It’s just the polling that has everyone freaked. If you take out the polling everyone would be like …”yeah..Biden is going to crush Trump.” I’m of two minds on the polling but you cannot ignore that it MIGHT BE an accurate reflection of the electorate being willing to punish Biden in November for whatever reason, but if you took the polling out there’s really no logical rational for saying that because of X and Y reasons, the electorate suddenly shifted away from Biden and back to Trump. We really won’t know more until swing states do more in depth professional polling. I think as long as the special counsel doesn’t pull a Comey on Biden, and Biden doesn’t lose his mind in those closing months of the election, there’s no reason why he should lose support from the coalition that put him in office in 2020 as a rebuke of MAGA. If that coalition disapproved of MAGA in 2020, there’s no way on earth they all the sudden think it sounds great this time when Trump is waaaaayyy more fascistic.
Bunch of doofuses posting votecasting takes = boring Meanwhile it's Two-for-Tuesday for all T-72's in Ukraine Also just note, what part of Putin's 3 day Special Military Operation involved losing another oil refinery near Sochi on Day 700?
special counsel already said biden was innocent and released a full report stating he's dropping the investigation
Biden will crush Trump, people will never vote for Trump.....Not a single person that has true integrity would vote for a pedophilic crook. DD
Starting in 2016 I stopped believing in Polls. People started actively lying to pollsters Rocket River
